A green daily candlestick has unfolded for Wednesday’s session exactly as was expected in yesterday’s summary. With some price confidence, now the alternate and main Elliott wave counts are swapped over.
Price remains within confidence points for the main and alternate hourly Elliott wave counts. The breakout should come soon and simple volume analysis may be used to judge which direction is most likely.
Downwards movement was expected for Monday. This did not happen, but price has remained below the invalidation point on the hourly chart and at the end of Monday’s session has returned to within the channel.
A new low below 2,422.88 has invalidated the main Elliott wave count and confirmed the alternate. Yesterday’s bearish divergence between price and the AD line and VIX did warn of a possible breakdown.
The main Elliott wave count again expected upwards movement. Monday has made a higher high and a higher low above Friday, the definition of upwards movement. This was expected.
The main Elliott wave count expected upwards movement. This happened at the end of the session for the candlestick to close green, but a lower low and a lower high for the session saw price overall move down from the prior day.
Yesterday it was noted that bullish divergence in both VIX and market breadth suggested an upwards session for Thursday. This is what has happened.
Price remains above the invalidation point, but the closure of the last gap and price moving back down into the prior consolidation zone puts the breakout as false. The gap was a pattern gap and not a breakaway gap.
Price remains range bound, which was expected.
Wednesday completed an outside day that closed red.
Downwards movement was expected to most likely be a small pullback within an ongoing upwards trend.
The pullback has remained above the invalidation point, as expected. The target is slightly adjusted; the Elliott wave target is now only 2 points from the classic analysis target.