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A new high in the first hour of the session gave confidence to a target at 2,548 to 2,550. Upwards movement for the session reached 2,552.51.

Summary: Assume the trend remains up while price remains within the violet channel on the hourly charts. The new target is now at 2,586 to 2,589.

A breach of that channel and then a new low below 2,535.37 would indicate a pullback or consolidation has begun. It may be shallow and last only a few days.

The trend remains up. Go with the trend. Corrections are an opportunity to join the trend. Only the most experienced and nimble of traders may consider trading a smaller correction short. Most traders should wait until the correction is complete before entering long.

Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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This wave count has strong support from another bullish signal from On Balance Volume at the weekly chart level. While classic analysis is still very bullish for the short term, there will be corrections along the way up. Indicators are extreme and there is considerable risk to the downside still.

As a Grand Super Cycle wave comes to an end, weakness may develop and persist for very long periods of time (up to three years is warned as possible by Lowry’s for the end of a bull market), so weakness in volume may be viewed in that larger context.

Within minute wave v, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,417.35.

The next reasonable correction should be for intermediate wave (4). When it arrives, it should last over two months in duration, and it may find support about the lower edge of this best fit channel. The correction may be relatively shallow, a choppy overlapping consolidation, at the weekly chart level.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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To see details of the whole of primary wave 3 so far see the analysis here.

Minute wave v to complete minor wave 3 must subdivide as a five wave structure. It looks like an incomplete impulse. So far it looks like minuette waves (i) and (ii) are complete with minuette wave (iii) now very close to completion.

When minuette wave (iii) is complete, then minuette wave (iv) may not move back down into minuette wave (i) price territory below 2,454.77.

So far minuette wave (iii) has lasted 26 sessions. If it exhibits a Fibonacci duration, then it may continue now for another 9 sessions to total a Fibonacci 34.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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A new target is calculated for minuette wave (iii) to end. At 2,586 minuette wave (iii) would reach 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and also at this price point micro wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of micro wave 1. At 2,589 subminuette wave v would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

This three point target zone is a small cluster of Fibonacci ratios which has a reasonable probability.

Within micro wave 5, sub-micro wave (2) may not move beyond the start of sub-micro wave (1) below 2,535.37.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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The structure of subminuette wave v and so all of minuette wave (iii) may now be complete.

A small violet channel is drawn about subminuette wave v. When this channel is breached by downwards movement, it shall be indicating that subminuette wave v is over and the next wave should be underway.

The next wave should be a consolidation or pullback for minuette wave (iv). Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 2,454.77.

A new low below 2,535.37 would invalidate the main hourly wave count above and provide some confidence in this alternate wave count.

There are more than 23 possible corrective structures that minuette wave (iv) may be. It should begin with a small five down at the hourly chart level. While that is incomplete, the first small second wave correction within it may not move beyond the start of its first wave above 2,552.51.

Once there is some structure within minuette wave (iv) to analyse, then alternate wave counts will be used to cover the various scenarios of how it may unfold. For corrections the Elliott wave focus should be on identifying when they may be complete, not on trying to identify the small sub-waves within them because there is too much variation possible.

Minuette wave (ii) was a deep zigzag lasting five days. Expect minuette wave (iv) to exhibit alternation and to be shallow, and most likely a flat, combination or triangle. It may last a total Fibonacci three, five or eight days.



S&P 500 weekly 2017
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The candlestick is bullish. On Balance Volume is very bullish. MACD is now bullish. ADX remains bullish.

ADX is extreme but not by much.

This analysis strongly supports the main Elliott wave count. The trend is up. Keep all trades with the trend. Always use stops as there is always risk to the downside. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade to manage risk.

From the small flag pattern, using the measured rule gives a target about 2,520; this is nicely close to the Elliott wave target.


S&P 500 daily 2017
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Another strong upwards day today has some support from volume.

RSI still does not exhibit divergence with price; no weakness here is indicated. There is small weak single divergence with price and Stochastics, but this is not enough yet to indicate any real weakness which may lead to an immediate pullback here.

This chart is extremely bullish. The trend is up. While indicators are extreme and overstretched now, they can remain so for a while when this market has a strong bull move.

Always manage risk. It is the most important aspect of successful trading.


VIX daily 2017
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Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

Mid term divergence between price and inverted VIX has now disappeared. There is no longer any divergence with price and VIX; the rise in price comes with a normal corresponding decline in volatility.


AD Line daily 2017
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With the last all time high for price, the AD line also made a new all time high. Up to the last high for price there was support from rising market breadth.

There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.

The small bearish divergence noted yesterday has failed. This indicator does tend to work more often than it fails, but it will not work all the time. This is one of those times.

The AD line today has made a new all time high with price. The rise in price is again supported by a rise in market breadth. This is bullish.

The mid and small caps have also made new all time highs. The rise in price is supported in all sectors of the market. Lowry’s measures of supply and demand continue to show expanding demand and contracting supply, which is more normal for an early bull market. This market shows reasonable internal health.

Go with the trend. Manage risk.


The S&P’s new all time high is confirmed by DJIA and Nasdaq also making new all time highs. DJT has also now made new all time highs, so the continuation of the bull market is now confirmed.

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 17,883.56.

DJT: 7,029.41.

S&P500: 2,083.79.

Nasdaq: 5,034.41.

Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory are here.

Published @ 09:17 p.m. EST.