Tag Archives: elliott wave s&p 500 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th January, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis expected two more days of very choppy overlapping movement to complete this fourth wave correction. We now have one more day of this overlapping movement, and the structure is incomplete. It may end tomorrow.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count has a higher probability than the bullish alternate. Upwards movement over the last 4 1/2 years subdivides best as a zigzag. If something is “off” about the supposed recovery then it must be a B wave because there is plenty that is off in this scenario in terms of social mood.

Minor waves 1, 2 and 3 are complete. Minor wave 4 is most likely incomplete. If it ends on 9th January, 2014 it would have lasted a Fibonacci 8 days.

We may be about to see a larger fractal at minor wave degree of the structure within minor wave 1 at minute wave degree; there the first wave was extended, the third wave was shorter, and the fifth wave was shorter still.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 0.76 points short of 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). We may not see a Fibonacci ratio between intermediate wave (5) and either of (3) or (1).

Intermediate wave (1) lasted 18 days. Intermediate wave (5) may last a total of a Fibonacci 89 days which would see it end on 10th February, 2014. However, Fibonacci time relationships are not very reliable for the S&P. This is a rough guideline only,

At super cycle degree the structure is an expanded flat correction. Within the flat the maximum common length of cycle wave b is 138% the length of cycle wave a, and this is achieved at 1,858.03. When cycle wave b is longer than the common length of cycle wave a then the probability that an expanded flat is unfolding would reduce and it would be more likely that a long term bull market is underway. Above 1,858.03 I will swap this main wave count over with the bullish alternate.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

Minute wave y has begun and looks like it is unfolding as a flat correction. Within it the downwards movement labeled minuette wave (a) subdivides best as a zigzag on the five minute chart. Upwards movement labeled minuette wave (b) is unfolding as a flat correction.

Within minuette wave (b) subminuette wave c would reach equality with subminuette wave a at 1,841. Because subminuette wave b is over 90% but less than 105% the length of subminuette wave a this flat is a regular flat. Regular flats most commonly have C waves which are close to equality with their A waves.

When minuette wave (b) is completed then I would expect a five wave structure downwards for minuette wave (c). This would complete the second flat correction of minute wave y, and so complete minor wave 4 as a double flat.

Minute wave y is likely to end about the same level of minute wave w at 1,828 because the purpose of double flats is to take up time and move price sideways, so the second structure usually ends about the same level as the first.

Minor wave 4 may end close to the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio at 1,825. This gives us a three point target zone which may be reached tomorrow if minor wave 4 is to last a Fibonacci eight days in total.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,811.22.

S&P 500 5 minute 2013

Bullish Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily alternate bullish 2013

It is possible that a new cycle degree bull market began at 666.79. So far it is not yet halfway through, and I would expect it to last for a few years (at least five more years and probably longer).

The current upwards impulse, labeled intermediate wave (5) for the main wave count and minor wave 5 for this alternate is incomplete. The structure within the final fifth wave is the same, and the structure on the hourly chart is the same. Targets would be the same for this bullish wave count. This wave count does not diverge with the main wave count, and it will not for several weeks or a couple of months or so yet.

The maroon – – – channel is an acceleration channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2 on the monthly chart (it is drawn in exactly the same way on the main wave count, but there it is termed a corrective channel). I would not expect intermediate wave (2) to breach this channel because a lower degree (intermediate) wave should not breach an acceleration channel of a higher degree (primary) first and second wave.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th November, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement for Monday’s session which is what has happened.

The structure on the hourly chart indicates an adjustment in the wave count, but the mid term and long term targets remain the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th November, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st October, 2013

At this stage the wave counts diverge. Downwards movement fits both the main and alternate wave counts, but is not enough to provide any confidence in a trend change… yet.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st October, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th October, 2013

Movement above 1,685.66 and outside the channel on the hourly chart indicates a trend change.

The wave counts remain the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily 2013

Intermediate wave (4) is now over, it lasted 14 days, just one more than a Fibonacci 13.

If intermediate wave (5) exhibits a Fibonacci time relationship it may end in a Fibonacci 13 days (or sessions) on 28th October.

At 1,764 primary wave C would reach equality with primary wave A.

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

Thursday’s session is a clear five wave impulse to the upside, which gives me more confidence that we have seen the end to the correction.

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii, and minute wave v is just 0.66 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minor wave 2 should take price lower tomorrow. It may end about the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratio, with the 0.618 ratio at 1,664.08 slightly more likely.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily alternate 2013

This wave count requires a lot more upwards movement than the main wave count, and it is very unlikely this structure could be completed by October 28th.

At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A). At 1,739 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

If price rises through this first target the next target will be used. At 1,849 minor wave 5 would reach equality with minor wave 3.

S&P 500 hourly alternate 2013

At 1,749 minuette wave (iii) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

Subminuette wave ii should move price lower tomorrow. There is no divergence at this stage between this alternate and the main wave count.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st October, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement to last all or most of Tuesday’s session, but this is not what happened. Price has moved higher, and there is now a very clear breach of the channel on the hourly chart.

I will not keep publishing the alternate daily chart as of today. It remains technically valid, but has entirely the wrong look. I will keep it in mind as a very unlikely alternate.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st October, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th September, 2013

Last analysis expected again more upwards movement to begin the new trading week, which is what happened. The short term target has not yet been reached, but may be tomorrow. The short term structure is incomplete.

The wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th September, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th September, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement to begin the new trading week, before a third wave up. This is not what happened, the second wave correction was already over and the third wave up had begun.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th September, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2013

Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement before this correction is over. Price has moved higher, and the correction is incomplete.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2013

Yesterday’s main wave count had two hourly charts. The first was invalidated with movement below 1,645.84. Price continued lower to reach 2.57 points below the target on the second hourly chart.

The main wave count remains the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th August, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected upwards movement for Tuesday’s session from the S&P 500 which is what happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th August, 2013