Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement before this correction is over. Price has moved higher, and the correction is incomplete.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
This wave count agrees with MACD and has some nice Fibonacci ratios in price and Fibonacci relationships in time.
Minor wave 3 is 15.1 points longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Ratios within minor wave 3 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is 5.44 points longer than equality with minute wave iii.
At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A). At 1,739 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.
Within minor wave 5 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,560.33.
Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days, minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 8 days, minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration at 98 days, and minor wave 4 lasted 22 days, just one day longer than a Fibonacci 21.
Minor wave 5 may not exhibit a Fibonacci time relationship. However, the next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 55 which could see minor wave 5 ending on 10th September (give or take a day or two either side). This may be the next possibility. At that time I will see if the structure could be considered complete, or not.
Keep drawing the wider parallel channels from the monthly chart and copy them over to the daily chart.
Within the second zigzag, minuette wave (y), subminuette wave b continued higher and is now a very convincing three wave structure.
At 1,620 submiuette wave c would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave a. Minute wave ii would be close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.
Within minuette wave (y) if subminuette wave b moves higher it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement above 1,669.51.
As soon as we see a completed five down for subminuette wave c the short term invalidation point no longer applies.
If minute wave ii lasts two more sessions it would end at a Fibonacci 21.
Alternate Wave Count.
While price remains below 1,709.67 it will remain possible that we have recently seen a trend change at cycle degree. However, we should always assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.
This is a huge trend change. The new downwards trend should last from one to several years and take price substantially below 666.76. We need some confirmation before having confidence in this wave count.
We should assume the trend is upwards until this wave count is confirmed with movement below 1,560.33, and then with a breach of the black parallel channel on the daily chart.
This wave count is the same as the main wave count, except the degree of labeling in the final upwards wave of minor wave 5 is moved up one degree.
This alternate hourly chart sees a five wave structure downwards now complete. This agrees nicely with MACD: subminuette wave iii has the strongest momentum, there is nice divergence between subminuette waves iii and v, and subminuette wave iv moved back to the zero line.
Minuette wave (ii) would be most likely to reach up to about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i) at 1,679.66.
Minuette wave (ii) is most likely unfolding as a zigzag, but other structural possibilities cannot be eliminated at this stage. I will label it as the most likely zigzag.
If minuette wave (ii) unfolds as a flat or combination then we may see a new low below 1,627.47. For this reason I do not have a lower invalidation point for this hourly wave count.
Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,709.67.