The wave count was invalidated with a new high above 100.72.

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The bigger picture sees AAPL still within a third wave at primary degree, within a third wave at cycle degree, within a third wave at super cycle degree.

Within primary wave 3 I would expect to see some alternation between intermediate waves (2) and (4), and I would also expect to see them somewhat in proportion to each other so that the wave count has the right look. However, the recent invalidation shows me that AAPL does not have typical looking Elliott wave structures.

I have drawn a channel about primary wave 3 using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the end of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find support at the lower edge of that channel.

I expect that AAPL is still within a correction for intermediate wave (4) which is unfolding as a flat or triangle. Intermediate wave (4) may find support, and may end, at the lower edge of the Elliott channel drawn here.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (2) is a zigzag, with no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C within it. Minor wave C is clearly longer than minor wave A.

If intermediate wave (4) unfolds as a flat, triangle or combination it will show nice structural alternation with intermediate wave (2).

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 82% correction. At this stage intermediate wave (4) is showing alternation in depth of correction by being very shallow, and should continue to be. The lowest I would expect it to go may be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3) at 43.48, but because of its shallowness it looks like it may not reach that low.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 28.99.

The reason for the invalidation of the last wave count for AAPL was my analysis of the prior downwards wave labeled minor wave A as a five wave impulse. That downwards movement looks so much like a five, it fits so well as a five, but it clearly is not. A new high above its start invalidated the idea that movement was a five wave impulse.

I do not have confidence in this wave count and I will not have confidence in it until the lower edge of the pink channel is clearly breached.

This wave count expects that intermediate wave (4) will continue as a regular or expanded flat correction. Minor wave B could most certainly move higher before minor wave C starts.

When we know where minor wave B has ended then we will know what type of correction intermediate wave (4) may be (an expanded or regular flat), and I can calculate a target for minor wave C downwards. I am not prepared to do that until I have trend channel confirmation that minor wave B has ended.

If intermediate wave (4) is to be a flat correction then minor wave C may move at least slightly below the end of minor wave A at 55.01 to avoid a truncation.

If intermediate wave (4) is to be a triangle or combination then the next downwards wave may not make a new low below 55.01.

It’s make or break time for my wave Elliott wave count with AAPL. Any movement above 100.72 would invalidate the wave count and indicate AAPL is in a new upwards trend.

I expect to see downwards movement from AAPL from this point. The long term target is 53.53 which may be seven months away.

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I expect that AAPL is within a correction for intermediate wave (4) which is unfolding as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may find support, and may end, at the lower edge of the Elliott channel drawn here.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (2) is a zigzag, with no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C within it. Minor wave C is clearly longer than minor wave A.

I would have expected intermediate wave (4) to most likely exhibit better alternation with intermediate wave (2) and not be a zigzag, but so far minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) looks like a clear five wave impulse. We may see alternation between these structures in the length of their A and C waves. I have seen this happen before, albeit rarely.

Within intermediate wave (4) minor wave C may be close to equality in length with minor wave A.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 82% correction. At this stage intermediate wave (4) is showing alternation in depth of correction by being very shallow, and should continue to be. The lowest I would expect it to go may be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3) at 43.48, but because of its shallowness it looks like it may not reach that low.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 28.99.

Minor wave B has almost no room left for movement. It may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 100.72.

This wave count relies upon my analysis of minor wave A downwards as a five wave impulse.

Within minor wave A there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v. Minute wave iii is shorter than minute wave i, and minute wave v is the shortest.

Within minute wave iii there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v). This is not actually unusual for AAPL; I have found it to only rarely exhibit nice Fibonacci ratios which does make target calculation more difficult.

Minor wave B is seen as a double zigzag. The second zigzag is now complete.

The aqua blue trend channel is a best fit. When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement then I shall have full confidence in the target at 53.53, or at least that the direction is down and extremely likely to make a new low below 55.01. Minor wave C is extremely likely to make at least a slight new low below minor wave A to avoid a truncation.

The daily chart focusses on the structure of the final wave up within minor wave B: minuette wave (c) of the second zigzag.

The small orange channel is drawn using Elliott’s technique about minuette wave (c): draw the first trend line from the ends of subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy on the end of subminuette wave ii. Only when this channel is very clearly breached with a full daily candlestick below it and not touching the lower trend line will I have confidence in this trend change. While price remains within this channel we may yet see more upwards movement.

At 53.53 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted seven months, so minor wave C may be about an even duration.

A stock split a couple of weeks ago made my data look… horribly wrong. This has now been fixed.

The wave count at cycle degree has changed and I have a new wave count for you.

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I am not sure about the degree of labeling in this wave count. Although it seems too brief for grand super cycle waves I and II to last 1/4 and 19 years, respectively, when the degree is moved down by one then the more recent movement is too low a degree.

I see a series of first and second waves with an unfolding third wave upwards incomplete.

Within cycle wave III intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 short of 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (4) is most likely incomplete. It may end at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn about primary wave 3 using Elliott’s technique.

The weekly chart shows recent movement within intermediate wave (4).

The wave down labeled minor wave A subdivides so well as a five wave impulse that intermediate wave (4) is unlikely to be over and should continue.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A at 100.72.

Within minor wave B the structure fits as a double zigzag, with the second zigzag almost complete.

Within minuette wave (c) at 97.16 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

The channel about minuette wave (c) is drawn using Elliott’s second technique: the first trend line is drawn from the ends of subminuette waves ii to iv, then a parallel copy is placed on the end of subminuette wave iii. I would expect subminuette wave v to end mid way within this channel.

When the channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement I would have confidence that minuette wave (c) is over.