Category Archives: Apple Historical

AAPL monthly charts

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th August, 2014

August 26, 2014Apple, Apple Historical, Public AnalysisLara

The wave count was invalidated with a new high above 100.72.

Click on charts to enlarge.

The bigger picture sees AAPL still within a third wave at primary degree, within a third wave at cycle degree, within a third wave at super cycle degree.

Within primary wave 3 I would expect to see some alternation between intermediate waves (2) and (4), and I would also expect to see them somewhat in proportion to each other so that the wave count has the right look. However, the recent invalidation shows me that AAPL does not have typical looking Elliott wave structures.

I have drawn a channel about primary wave 3 using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the end of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find support at the lower edge of that channel.

I expect that AAPL is still within a correction for intermediate wave (4) which is unfolding as a flat or triangle. Intermediate wave (4) may find support, and may end, at the lower edge of the Elliott channel drawn here.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (2) is a zigzag, with no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C within it. Minor wave C is clearly longer than minor wave A.

If intermediate wave (4) unfolds as a flat, triangle or combination it will show nice structural alternation with intermediate wave (2).

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 82% correction. At this stage intermediate wave (4) is showing alternation in depth of correction by being very shallow, and should continue to be. The lowest I would expect it to go may be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3) at 43.48, but because of its shallowness it looks like it may not reach that low.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 28.99.

The reason for the invalidation of the last wave count for AAPL was my analysis of the prior downwards wave labeled minor wave A as a five wave impulse. That downwards movement looks so much like a five, it fits so well as a five, but it clearly is not. A new high above its start invalidated the idea that movement was a five wave impulse.

I do not have confidence in this wave count and I will not have confidence in it until the lower edge of the pink channel is clearly breached.

This wave count expects that intermediate wave (4) will continue as a regular or expanded flat correction. Minor wave B could most certainly move higher before minor wave C starts.

When we know where minor wave B has ended then we will know what type of correction intermediate wave (4) may be (an expanded or regular flat), and I can calculate a target for minor wave C downwards. I am not prepared to do that until I have trend channel confirmation that minor wave B has ended.

If intermediate wave (4) is to be a flat correction then minor wave C may move at least slightly below the end of minor wave A at 55.01 to avoid a truncation.

If intermediate wave (4) is to be a triangle or combination then the next downwards wave may not make a new low below 55.01.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th July, 2014

July 31, 2014Apple, Apple Historical, Public AnalysisLara

It’s make or break time for my wave Elliott wave count with AAPL. Any movement above 100.72 would invalidate the wave count and indicate AAPL is in a new upwards trend.

I expect to see downwards movement from AAPL from this point. The long term target is 53.53 which may be seven months away.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I expect that AAPL is within a correction for intermediate wave (4) which is unfolding as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may find support, and may end, at the lower edge of the Elliott channel drawn here.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (2) is a zigzag, with no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C within it. Minor wave C is clearly longer than minor wave A.

I would have expected intermediate wave (4) to most likely exhibit better alternation with intermediate wave (2) and not be a zigzag, but so far minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) looks like a clear five wave impulse. We may see alternation between these structures in the length of their A and C waves. I have seen this happen before, albeit rarely.

Within intermediate wave (4) minor wave C may be close to equality in length with minor wave A.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 28.99.

Minor wave B has almost no room left for movement. It may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 100.72.

This wave count relies upon my analysis of minor wave A downwards as a five wave impulse.

Within minor wave A there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v. Minute wave iii is shorter than minute wave i, and minute wave v is the shortest.

Within minute wave iii there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v). This is not actually unusual for AAPL; I have found it to only rarely exhibit nice Fibonacci ratios which does make target calculation more difficult.

Minor wave B is seen as a double zigzag. The second zigzag is now complete.

The aqua blue trend channel is a best fit. When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement then I shall have full confidence in the target at 53.53, or at least that the direction is down and extremely likely to make a new low below 55.01. Minor wave C is extremely likely to make at least a slight new low below minor wave A to avoid a truncation.

The daily chart focusses on the structure of the final wave up within minor wave B: minuette wave (c) of the second zigzag.

The small orange channel is drawn using Elliott’s technique about minuette wave (c): draw the first trend line from the ends of subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy on the end of subminuette wave ii. Only when this channel is very clearly breached with a full daily candlestick below it and not touching the lower trend line will I have confidence in this trend change. While price remains within this channel we may yet see more upwards movement.

At 53.53 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted seven months, so minor wave C may be about an even duration.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st July, 2014

July 1, 2014Apple, Apple Historical, Public AnalysisLara

A stock split a couple of weeks ago made my data look… horribly wrong. This has now been fixed.

The wave count at cycle degree has changed and I have a new wave count for you.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I am not sure about the degree of labeling in this wave count. Although it seems too brief for grand super cycle waves I and II to last 1/4 and 19 years, respectively, when the degree is moved down by one then the more recent movement is too low a degree.

I see a series of first and second waves with an unfolding third wave upwards incomplete.

Within cycle wave III intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 short of 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (4) is most likely incomplete. It may end at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn about primary wave 3 using Elliott’s technique.

The weekly chart shows recent movement within intermediate wave (4).

The wave down labeled minor wave A subdivides so well as a five wave impulse that intermediate wave (4) is unlikely to be over and should continue.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A at 100.72.

Within minor wave B the structure fits as a double zigzag, with the second zigzag almost complete.

Within minuette wave (c) at 97.16 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

The channel about minuette wave (c) is drawn using Elliott’s second technique: the first trend line is drawn from the ends of subminuette waves ii to iv, then a parallel copy is placed on the end of subminuette wave iii. I would expect subminuette wave v to end mid way within this channel.

When the channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement I would have confidence that minuette wave (c) is over.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May 2014

May 21, 2014Apple, Apple HistoricalLara

Upwards movement continued as wave count expected.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Because the downwards wave labeled here cycle wave a subdivides so well as a five wave impulse, with an extended third wave, the correction cannot be over there.

This means that upwards movement from the low at 385.10 should subdivide as a corrective structure and may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 705.07.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double zigzag. The channel drawn about it is a best fit. When this maroon channel is clearly breached by downwards movement I shall have confidence that cycle wave b is over and cycle wave c downwards is underway.

Cycle wave c would be extremely likely to make a new low beyond the end of cycle wave a at 385.10 to avoid a truncation.

Cycle wave b is incomplete. Within it intermediate wave (C) is unfolding as an impulse, and minor wave 4 has recently completed.

At 627 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1 I will expect to see a Fibonacci ratio for minor wave 5.

Within minute wave iii of minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 585.40.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th October, 2013

October 30, 2013Apple, Apple HistoricalLara

Last analysis on 23rd October, 2013 expected more upwards movement to a target at 552. Price moved higher to reach 539.25, $12.75 short of the target.

Minor wave 3 is now over and minor wave 4 is underway.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

A large zigzag structure for a fourth wave correction at supercycle degree may be unfolding.

Within the zigzag cycle wave a is a complete impulse. Within cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between primary waves 1, 3 and 5.

Cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag. Within the larger zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 705.07.

At 600 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.

The daily chart shows the structure of cycle wave b.

Within primary wave B there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Within intermediate wave (2) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

The target for minor wave 3 to end was 552. It ended at 539.25 with no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When minor wave 4 within intermediate wave (3) is completed I will add to this target calculation at minor wave degree, so it may change or widen to a small zone.

Minor wave 3 has completed a typical looking impulse.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave v is 1.35 short of equality with minute wave i, and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute wave iii and either of i or v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.55 short of 0.618 the length of minuett e wave (iii).

Minor wave 2 was a shallow 44% zigzag correction of minor wave 1. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect minor wave 4 to be more likely to be deep, and it may unfold as a flat, double, combination or triangle.

Minor wave 4 may also find support at the lower edge of the channel drawn here. This channel is drawn from the highs of minor waves 1 to 3, with a parallel copy placed upon the low of minor wave 2.

If price breaks through support at the lower trend line then I would expect downwards movement to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3, at about 500.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th August, 2013

August 6, 2013Apple, Apple HistoricalLara

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement which is what we have seen. However, I was unhappy with the overall look of last week’s wave count so I am stepping back this week to take a look at the bigger picture on the monthly and weekly charts.

I have two wave counts for you. These are not the only two possible wave counts, but they have the best fit and look of all the possibilities I have considered. I do not prefer one or the other of these wave counts at this stage. The point of differentiation is 505.75, but both expect downwards movement from here as most likely.

Depending upon whether the monthly chart is viewed in arithmetic or semi-log scale there is or is not a recent channel breach.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

First Wave Count.

If the monthly chart is viewed on an arithmetic scale then the recent downwards movement looks significant. This wave count has much better Fibonacci ratios than the alternate below, and so despite its problems I consider it has a better probability for this reason.

Within super cycle wave (I) (olive green) ratios are: cycle wave III is 44.53 short of 2.618 the length of cycle wave I (this is a 7.9% variation which is acceptable), and cycle wave (V) is 16.08 short of equality with cycle wave (I). A channel drawn about this impulse is very clearly breached by downwards movement.

Ratios within cycle wave III are: primary wave 3 is 14.15 longer than 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and primary wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of primary waves 3 or 1.

Ratios within primary wave 3 of cycle wave III are: intermediate wave (3) is 9.98 short of 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 4.72 short of 0.382 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 of cycle wave III are: minor wave 3 is just 0.29 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.

Super cycle wave II should last several years to decades. Corrections are usually briefer than impulses for AAPL so I would expect super cycle wave II to last several years. It may unfold as one of several structures. It would most likely be a zigzag.

The biggest problem with this wave count is the brevity of cycle waves IV and V. Cycle wave V lasted just one month, and cycle wave V lasted 4 months. It is for this reason that I am considering the alternate below.

Because this wave count expects downwards movement is a second wave it would most likely unfold as a zigzag. However, it may also be a double zigzag, combination or flat.

If super cycle wave II is unfolding as a zigzag then cycle wave a within it should unfold as a five wave structure.

Within cycle wave a primary wave 3 was 23.73 short of equality with primary wave 1. This limits primary wave 5 to no longer than equality with primary wave 3 at 295.42.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is just 2.90 short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of intermediate waves (3) or (1).

Primary wave 4 is much longer in duration than primary wave 2, but as a flat correction with a triangle in the middle it would be expected to take more time.

Within primary wave 4 intermediate wave (A) subdivides as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (B) is a time consuming contracting triangle and is 101% the length of intermediate wave (A) indicating a regular flat may be unfolding.

Intermediate wave (C) so far is just 1.01 longer than equality with intermediate wave (A) and so it may be over here.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 505.75.

The daily chart is provided simply to show the subdivisions within cycle wave a more clearly.

At 362 primary wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of primary wave 3.

The trend channel is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of primary waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the low of primary wave 3. If primary wave 4 moves higher redraw the channel and recalculate the target. Primary wave 5 may end midway within this channel, or it may find support at the lower edge.

Second Wave Count.

If the monthly chart is viewed on a semi-log scale then the more recent downwards movement looks proportional to cycle wave II and it may be cycle wave IV.

On a semi-log scale there is no trend channel breach. The channel is drawn from the highs of cycle waves I to III, a parallel copy is placed upon the low of cycle wave II. Cycle wave IV may find support at the lower edge of this channel.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between cycle waves III and I.

Ratios within cycle wave III are: primary wave 3 is 10.31 longer than 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and primary wave 5 is 8.86 short of 2.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 9.98 short of 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (3), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate waves (3) or (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 are: minor wave 3 is just 0.29 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.

Ratios within primary wave 5 are: intermediate wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 6.81 short of 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

If a cycle degree fourth wave correction is unfolding then it is unlikely to be over in just 7 months at the low labeled here primary wave W. The first zigzag is completed, and because of the brevity and shallow correction a second zigzag should be expected.

If cycle wave IV is unfolding as a double zigzag then the first zigzag is complete. The three joining the first and second zigzags may be a completed flat correction.

The subdivisions within primary waves W and X are seen for this alternate exactly the same as the main wave count, because a zigzag 5-3-5 subdivides exactly the same as a first, second and third wave, 5-3-5.

If primary wave X were to move above 505.75 then this alternate would be correct, or at least the three down ending at 286.07 would be confirmed as complete.

There are other possibilities which I am not charting for you today in trying to keep this analysis within a manageable length. It is possible that cycle wave IV is unfolding as a flat correction labeled A-B-C instead of W-X-Y. That would require more upwards movement to at least 677 so that wave B is at least 90% the length of wave A. If price moves above 505.75 then I will chart this possibility for you.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th February, 2013

February 19, 2013Apple, Apple HistoricalLara

Last Elliott wave analysis of AAPL expected price to move lower which is what has happened.

I have taken a closer look at the corrective structure and considered several possibilities. Today, I have two alternate wave counts for you.

In the short term both wave counts expect more downwards movement, most likely to a low below 435. Thereafter, each wave count expects upwards movement and the differentiating point is at 505.75.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Monthly Chart.

From 1982 to September 2012 Apple saw a significant rise. This looks like a nice impulse structure.

The drop from September 2012 to the current date is significant and may be a correction at super cycle degree.

When we use Elliott’s channeling technique to draw a channel about this impulse for super cycle wave (I) the last monthly candlestick clearly breaches the channel. This indicates that the new downwards trend may be a large correction of the upwards trend from the 1980s.

The channel is drawn first with a trend line from the highs of cycle waves I to III, then a parallel copy is placed upon the low of cycle wave II.

Both the main and alternate wave counts below follow on from this monthly wave count.

Main Wave Count.

This main wave count looks at the possibility that super cycle wave (II) is unfolding as a zigzag. Because this is the most common structure for a second wave this is the main wave count with a slightly higher probability.

If super cycle wave (II) is unfolding as a zigzag then cycle wave a must subdivide into a five wave structure. So far this cannot be a leading diagonal and must be an impulse.

Within the impulse of cycle wave a wave 4 at primary degree may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This main wave count is invalidated with movement above 505.75 (prior to the completion of primary waves 3, 4 and 5).

When cycle wave a is complete then cycle wave b upwards must subdivide as a three. Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. At that stage this wave count would be invalidated with movement above 705.07. This main wave count sees a high in place for AAPL.

Cycle wave b may find resistance about the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn about the impulse of super cycle wave (I) (see the monthly chart for this channel).

Within cycle wave a primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete and primary wave 3 may be incomplete. However, this wave count does not agree with MACD in that the strongest momentum is within primary wave 1 and not intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 3. This may be remedied if the degree of labeling within primary wave 3 is moved down one degree. If momentum to the downside increases I would expect primary wave 3 is extending, and the strongest momentum may be yet to come.

At 365 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality with intermediate wave (3).

When primary wave 3 is complete then the channel may be redrawn. The first trend line is drawn from the low of primary wave 1 to wherever primary wave 3 ends, then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of primary wave 2. We may expect primary wave 4 to end about the upper edge of the channel.

Within primary wave 3 intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 518.63.

Alternate Wave Count.

This alternate wave count looks at the possibility that super cycle wave (II) may be unfolding as a flat correction. Within it cycle wave a may itself be unfolding as a flat, a three wave structure.

Within cycle wave a primary wave A may be unfolding as a zigzag. If the current downwards wave which began at the high labeled intermediate wave (B) at 594.59 is not extending then the lack of momentum would be explained nicely by this wave count; intermediate wave (C) does not have to have a greater momentum than intermediate wave (A).

At 409 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

At 395 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

When primary wave A is complete then primary wave B must reach at least 90% the length of primary wave A, and may make a new high. At that stage if price moves above 505.75 the main wave count above would be invalidated and this alternate would be confirmed. If that happens then we will know that price must continue to rise to the point where primary wave B equals 90% of primary wave A at minimum.

Within downwards movement of primary wave A intermediate waves (A) and (B) are complete. Intermediate wave (C) is close to completion.

I have used Elliott’s channeling technique for a correction. The first trend line is drawn from the start of intermediate wave (A) to the end of intermediate wave (B), then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of intermediate wave (A). We may expect intermediate wave (C) to end either mid way within the channel, or maybe about the lower edge. When the channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that primary wave A was a three and it is over, and primary wave B should then be underway.

In the short term if minor wave 4 continues further it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 518.63.

AAPL Elliott Wave Count – 12th February, 2013

February 13, 2013Apple, Apple HistoricalLara

“They” say that Apple is a market leader. I’m curious to see if this is the case. I’ve decided to offer members and visitors to this site regular (once or twice a week) analysis of AAPL.

This is my first wave count. Over the next few days I’ll look at alternates.

This is what I saw first. I began my wave count at July 1982.

Overall I noticed some remarkably close Fibonacci ratios. Within each impulse I analysed I found at least one Fibonacci ratio between the three actionary waves. Within the two corrective waves I analysed for Fibonacci ratios I found a ratio for each.

The structures also seem to sit nicely within trend channels.

Overall Apple seems to conform very well to Elliott wave structures and behaves typically.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Monthly.

From 1982 to September 2012 Apple saw a significant rise. This looks like a nice impulse structure.

The drop from September 2012 to the current date is significant and may be a correction at super cycle degree.

Within super cycle wave (I) (olive green) ratios are: cycle wave III is 44.53 points short of 2.618 the length of cycle wave I (this is a 7.9% variation which is acceptable), and cycle wave (V) is 16.22 points short of equality with cycle wave (I).

So far within super cycle wave II the structure is incomplete. Overall over the next several months to couple of years I would expect to see new lows for Apple, but there is a B wave yet to come which may also make a new high. The weekly chart focuses on the structure of the end to super cycle wave I, and the daily chart focuses on the structure of super cycle wave II.

The channel is drawn first with a trend line from the highs of cycle waves I to III, then a parallel copy is placed upon the low of cycle wave II.

Weekly.

This weekly chart shows the end of super cycle wave (I) and the start of super cycle wave (II).

Within super cycle wave (I) ratios within cycle wave III (teal green) are: primary wave 3 (maroon) is 14.15 points longer than 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and primary wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to primary waves 3 or 1.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) (black) is just 9.97 points longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave is 5.94 points short of 0.382 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 (blue) is just 0.29 points longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 1 or 3.

Within super cycle wave (II) cycle wave a is incomplete. So far it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag structure with primary waves A and B complete. The subdivisions of primary wave C are better seen on the daily chart below.

Daily.

Within super cycle wave (II) cycle wave a may be unfolding as a zigzag with primary waves A and B complete. Primary wave C is an incomplete structure and requires more downwards movement.

Ratios within primary wave A are: intermediate wave (1) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (3), and intermediate wave (5) is just 4.88 points longer then equality with intermediate wave (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 1.3 points short of equality with minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 1 within intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii (pink) is just 0.3 points short of 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Ratios within minor wave 3 or intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii is 4.51 points longer than equality with minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.22 points short of 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Within primary wave B intermediate wave (C) is 1.01 points short of 0.146 the length of intermediate wave (A).

Ratios within intermediate wave (A) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.16 points short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (3) is just 2.9 points short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (4) of primary wave C minor wave C is 1.72 points short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

At 409 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At 395 primary wave C would reach equality in length with intermediate wave A.

I favour the lower end of this target because there is already a good Fibonacci ratio at intermediate degree.

Prior to the completion of intermediate wave (5) if price moves above 518.63 this wave count would be invalidated. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

Intermediate wave (5) does not have to make a new low below the end of intermediate wave (3) at 435, but is more likely to do so than not.

The channel I have drawn uses Elliott’s technique for a correction. The first trend line is drawn from the start of primary wave A to the end of primary wave B. A parallel copy is placed upon the end of primary wave A. So far price is nicely contained within this channel. Primary wave C may end about the lower edge of the channel. When the channel is breached by upwards movement then that will be an indicator that the zigzag for cycle wave a is complete and cycle wave b upwards has begun.

When cycle wave a is complete then I would expect a new upwards trend for cycle wave b which is fairly likely to make a new all time high.