Tag Archives: ftse trading

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th October, 2015

There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th October, 2015

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2015

There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2015

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd September, 2015

There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd September, 2015

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th September, 2015

There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th September, 2015

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th May, 2015

Charts only today.

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Bull Wave Count

FTSE monthly 2015

FTSE daily 2014

Bear Wave Count

FTSE monthly 2015

FTSE weekly 2014

FTSE daily 2014

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2014

During these last two months I’ve struggled with the FTSE Elliott wave count. Choppy overlapping movement has been and is very difficult to analyse.

The trend remains the same, until proven otherwise. The trend is your friend.

It’s Christmas Eve here now, so charts only today. Merry Christmas everyone!

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Main Wave Count

FTSE monthly 2014

FTSE weekly 2014

FTSE daily 2014

Alternate Wave Count

FTSE weekly 2014

FTSE daily 2014

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th October, 2014

Downwards movement invalidated the last wave count. FTSE may have had a cycle degree trend change, but this requires confirmation. If it is correct it should be confirmed within two weeks.

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FTSE monthly 2014

The bigger picture sees FTSE in a huge correction for a super cycle wave (II).

Super cycle wave (II) may be either a regular flat correction (labeled cycle a, b, c) or it may be a double flat or combination (labeled cycle w, x and y).

A regular flat correction would expect a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c to move at least a little below the end of cycle wave a at 3,460.71 to avoid a truncation. Cycle wave c would be expected to last from one to several years, with a shorter time frame more likely.

A double flat or combination would expect a three wave structure downwards for cycle wave y to end about the same level as cycle wave a at 3,460.71. Cycle wave y would be expected to last from one to several years, with a longer time frame more likely. It could look like a repeat of cycle wave a.

There is divergence at the monthly chart level with MACD which supports this wave count.

Cycle wave b (or x) subdivides as a zigzag and is complete, but this trend change absolutely requires confirmation before any confidence may be had in this wave count.

FTSE daily 2014

Within cycle wave b (or x) there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves A and C.

Ratios within primary wave C are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 12.29 points short of 0.236 the length of intermediate wave (3).

This is a huge trend change at cycle degree. I would only have confidence in this wave count when there is a full weekly candlestick below the lower edge of the maroon – – – channel, and not touching its lower trend line. Only when this confirmation is present will I calculate downwards targets for you.

FTSE daily 2014

I had expected intermediate wave (5) to continue higher, but it may have ended as a very short brief fifth wave which is common following barrier triangles.

I have adjusted the wave count within intermediate wave (4) to see the barrier triangle ending later. This changes the beginning and so end of intermediate wave (5).

If there has been a trend change then no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 6,904.86.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th September, 2014

A new high above 6,894.88 indicates FTSE has not had a big trend change. The upwards trend remains intact. Intermediate wave (5) is not over.

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FTSE monthly 2014

The bigger picture sees FTSE in a huge correction for a super cycle wave (II).

Super cycle wave (II) may be either a regular flat correction (labeled cycle a, b, c) or it may be a double flat or combination (labeled cycle w, x and y).

A regular flat correction would expect a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c to move at least a little below the end of cycle wave a at 3,460.71 to avoid a truncation. Cycle wave c would be expected to last from one to several years, with a shorter time frame more likely.

A double flat or combination would expect a three wave structure downwards for cycle wave y to end about the same level as cycle wave a at 3,460.71. Cycle wave y would be expected to last from one to several years, with a longer time frame more likely. It could look like a repeat of cycle wave a.

There is divergence at the monthly chart level with MACD which supports this wave count.

Cycle wave b (or x) subdivides as a zigzag and is incomplete.

FTSE daily 2014

The daily chart focusses on the last wave up, intermediate wave (5).

Intermediate wave (5) cannot be over. A new high above the end of minor wave 1 cannot be part of a new downwards trend.

At 7,247 intermediate wave (5) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An ending diagonal requires all the subwaves to be zigzags. Because minor wave 1 looks best as a five wave structure I expect that intermediate wave (5) is most likely to subdivide as a simple impulse.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Within it I am not convinced that minute wave ii is complete because although so far downwards movement subdivides as a three wave structure this is a very shallow brief movement, which is more likely to continue lower. Minute wave ii may end about the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratios of minute wave i, with the 0.618 ratio as more likely because second wave corrections are most often deep.

Within minute wave ii minuette wave (b) must subdivide as a three wave structure and may make a new high above the start of minuette wave (a) at 6,904.86 as in an expanded flat. Minute wave ii may also be a double zigzag or double combination.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 6,528.73.

At 7,156 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th August, 2014

I expect FTSE has seen a big trend change, but this is unconfirmed. Only when the channel on the monthly chart is clearly breached will I have confidence in this wave count.

In the short term I expect some more upwards movement to 6,836, but not above 6,894.88.

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FTSE monthly 2014

The bigger picture sees FTSE in a huge correction for a super cycle wave (II).

Super cycle wave (II) may be either a regular flat correction (labeled cycle a, b, c) or it may be a double flat or combination (labeled cycle w, x and y).

A regular flat correction would expect a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c to move at least a little below the end of cycle wave a at 3,460.71 to avoid a truncation. Cycle wave c would be expected to last from one to several years, with a shorter time frame more likely.

A double flat or combination would expect a three wave structure downwards for cycle wave y to end about the same level as cycle wave a at 3,460.71. Cycle wave y would be expected to last from one to several years, with a longer time frame more likely. It could look like a repeat of cycle wave a.

There is divergence at the monthly chart level with MACD which supports this wave count.

Cycle wave b (or x) subdivides as a zigzag and is most likely incomplete. At 7,691 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality with intermediate wave (1).

FTSE daily 2014

I expect that intermediate wave (5) was typically very short following the barrier triangle of intermediate wave (4).

So far to the downside there is a leading expanding diagonal for a first wave, followed by a typically deep second wave correction which now looks to be incomplete.

Downwards movement for minute wave b is a clear three wave structure, and it is complete. Minor wave 2 looks like it is continuing as a larger expanded flat correction.

It is extremely likely that minute wave c will make at least a slight new high above the end of minute wave a at 6,833.67 to avoid a truncation. At 6,836 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a. Minute wave a lasted a Fibonacci 13 days and minute wave b lasted a Fibonacci 8 days. Minute wave c may complete in a total Fibonacci 13 or 21 days, so the target at 6,833.67 may be reached in a further 9 or 17 days time.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 6,894.88.

When minor wave 2 is finally complete then minor wave 3 downwards should show a strong increase in momentum, and must move well below the end of minor wave 1 at 6,643.62.