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There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Summary: I have only a bear wave count for FTSE. The bull wave count was invalided. So far I have not been able to find other bull alternatives which fit. Of all the markets I currently analyse, FTSE is the clearest bear.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

Changes to last analysis are bold.

Click charts to enlarge.


FTSE daily 2014

Minor wave 4 may have completed as a small shallow zigzag, lasting 11 days and 0.39 of minor wave 3. This provides perfect alternation with the deep 0.82 expanded flat of minor wave 2.

At 5,471 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

Draw a channel about this downwards movement: draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then push a parallel copy up to contain the whole movement. Minor wave 5 may end either midway within the channel, or about the lower edge.

Minor wave 5 has begun with two overlapping first and second waves. This may indicate an extended fifth wave to unfold, which fits with the target for minor wave 5 to reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

I have considered the possibility that this choppy movement is a continuation of minor wave 4. So far it would fit, but only if minor wave 4 would be incomplete. That would see minor wave 4 much longer in duration to minor wave 2 which lasted only 6 days. Because it is the proportion of second and fourth waves within an impulse that give the wave count the right look, I do not think this movement is a continuation of minor wave 4.

If my analysis is wrong this week, then the call that minor wave 4 is over would be what’s wrong. Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 6,284.17. If price breaks above this invalidation point, then the labelling which sees minor wave 4 as complete would be wrong.



FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

Price has essentially been moving sideways since the low of 24th August. During this time, the downwards day of 18th September has strongest volume which indicates a breakout from this sideways move is more likely to be downwards than upwards.

Overall, ADX remains mostly flat. The consolidation is maturing, the trend should resume soon, but for now the breakout may not have yet happened.

A new low below the low of 24th August and an increase in volume would add confidence that a downwards breakout is underway.

This analysis is published about 09:37 p.m. EST.