A new all time high has confirmed the alternate hourly Elliott wave count. The target will remain the same.
The AD line and VIX are both giving a signal today for what may happen tomorrow.
Summary: With a new all time high and some small support from volume today, we should assume the trend remains up. Targets remain at 2,732, and 2,773 for the mid term.
For the very short term, look tomorrow for a final small fifth wave up then a pullback for a second wave correction. The fifth wave may end about 2,672.
Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.
The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.
MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Cycle wave V must complete as a five structure, which should look clear at the weekly chart level. It may only be an impulse or ending diagonal. At this stage, it is clear it is an impulse.
Within cycle wave V, the corrections for primary wave 2 and intermediate wave (2) both show up clearly, both lasting several weeks. The respective corrections for intermediate wave (4) and primary wave 4 should also last several weeks, so that they show up at weekly and monthly time frames. The right proportions between second and fourth wave corrections give a wave count the right look. This wave count expects to see two large multi week corrections coming up, and the first for intermediate wave (4) may now be quite close by.
Cycle wave V has passed equality in length with cycle wave I, which would be the most common Fibonacci ratio for it to have exhibited. The next most common Fibonacci ratio would be 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.
Intermediate wave (3) may now be nearing completion (the alternate hourly wave count looks at the possibility it could be complete at the last high). When it is complete, then intermediate wave (4) should unfold and be proportional to intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) may be very likely to break out of the yellow best fit channel that contains intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,193.81.
The yellow best fit channel is redrawn. Price points are given so that members may replicate this channel. This channel is copied over to the daily chart.
DAILY CHART
The main wave count will now expect that within minor wave 5 minute waves i and ii are complete.
Within minute wave iii, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 2,624.85.
The target expects minor wave 5 to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.
Price is finding resistance about the mid line of the best fit channel.
HOURLY CHART
If minute wave ii is over, then minute wave iii upwards should exhibit an increase in momentum so that it stronger than minute wave i.
So far, within minute wave iii, minuette wave (i) may be incomplete. Minuette wave (ii) should break out of the narrow best fit channel drawn here about minuette wave (i). When price breaks out of this channel to the downside, then draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of minuette wave (i). The 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios would be targets for minuette wave (ii).
ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART
It is still possible that minute wave ii may not be complete and may be continuing as an expanded flat correction.
If price makes a new swing low below 2,624.85, then the target for downwards movement to end would be 2,604 to 2,600. This assumes the most common Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c), and the most common point for minute wave ii to end at.
Minuette wave (c) may last two days if minute wave ii exhibits a Fibonacci duration of eight, or it may last six days if minute wave (ii) exhibits a Fibonacci duration of thirteen.
SECOND ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART
A more bearish option is still technically possible. It is possible that intermediate wave (4) may begin here or very soon.
A new low below 2,624.85 would add a little confidence in this idea.
A new low below 2,557.45 is required for confirmation of this idea. Only then should it be taken seriously.
Intermediate wave (4) may last about three months. It may be a choppy overlapping large consolidation, or a deep sharp pullback (which may be over more quickly than three months). It should have some reasonable proportion to intermediate wave (2), so that the wave count has the right look at the weekly time frame.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
There is no candlestick reversal pattern yet at highs.
Price and On Balance Volume continue to make new highs. This is bullish.
The trend is extreme, but as yet there is no reversal signal at this time frame.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
This chart still looks reasonably bearish. This market is overbought and exhibits weakness; it looks susceptible to a reasonable sized correction.
However, price keeps on going up and we have to go with price. While price remains above the last swing low of the 6th of December, it seems reasonable to assume that the trend may well remain up.
But if price makes a new swing low, it would then look like a larger correction may have arrived.
There is divergence between price and On Balance Volume, Stochastics and RSI. ATR continues to decline.
On Balance Volume may be giving a bullish signal today, but it needs to be clearer for confidence.
VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.
Price has moved higher, but inverted VIX has diverged. The rise in price does not come with a normal corresponding decline in market volatility; volatility has increased. This indicates weakness today within price and is bearish.
BREADTH – AD LINE
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no longer term divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.
All of large, mid and small caps last week have made new all time highs. The rise in price has support from market breadth.
Breadth should be read as a leading indicator. The AD line has diverged with price today. Price does not come with support from rising market breadth while it has moved higher. A decline in breadth today is bearish.
DOW THEORY
The DJIA, DJT, and S&P500 have last week made new all time highs. Only Nasdaq was unable to make a new all time high.
The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:
DJIA: 17,883.56.
DJT: 7,029.41.
S&P500: 2,083.79.
Nasdaq: 5,034.41.
Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory are here.
Published @ 10:10 p.m. EST.
Two tests of the 1.27 extension and both failed. Could bode that a minor correction is finally here.
Tax Agreement is confirmed.
Details to be released soon. Certainty is now here on this issue.
Next big bill will be infrastructure… plan to be released in January.
The new withholding table will flow through to paychecks on February 1st 2018.
That is when you will see Less income Tax withheld and new NET payable to you increase.
As you know your final tax will be calculated by you after January 1, 2019 & Before April 15, 2019.
SPX 2,666.15 right now complete opposite of 666
Right at time of Fed release.
+ .25 with 2 dissents – Vote 8 to 2
3 hikes in 2018
The 4PM ES Closing Price 2,666.75
The SPX 3:45PM Doji Closing price 2,666.38 (5 min)
Boy that 666 keeps coming up at important times here today.
Gee, what does it mean?
Well my friend, all I can tell ya is that the “Devil is in the details…!” 🙂
Nice VIX sprint above 10.00 resistance at the close today…
Taking a small scalp on minuette two down via DIA 246 puts for a buck. 🙂
Okey Dokey!
Much more comfortable with an entry at the end of this second wave correction. Opening a buy order just above the 61.8% re-tracement at 2643
I wonder how the Google DeepMind “Brain” does in the stock market? I wonder how much $$$$ is under the control of it already? Surely they must at least be experimenting with it, right? How much money is already being actively traded by AI’s developed using “deep learning” techniques? And I wonder if, in the end, it really matters, because the diversity of approaches to the market across the $$ moved assures it’s always going to trace out EW’s. If EW’s are driven by human psychology…do the AI’s participate in that psychology as well, perhaps by virtue of their very training process? Or could the AI’s cause “market distortion” because they don’t suffer from “human psychology”? Remember, these things are to the point where they crush (CRUSH) in heads up poker (not so much full ring, but I suspect that’s changing!) A game with a lot of similarities to trading.
The big banks have been using so-called proprietary trading algorithms for years, which is really a form of AI…
Since there’s a lot of conspiracy entertainment here I thought I’d throw my latest in the hat…
Remember “Tillerson is out”, two weeks ago? Till called Trump a moron; we know Trump hates him and wants revenge (that’s Trump). A complete replacement plan was put in place, with Pompeo moving to state. Pompeo is a Hawk, capital H. As backdrop, also note Trump is always about ratings. War is guaranteed rating success; the US hugely supports presidents in times of war. So multiple reasons that was fait accompli.
What happened?
Till is a true partner of Putin. Multiple cooperative oil/gas deals as head of Exxon. He’s a peer. He’s not a member of Putin’s extended mafia, ala Trump. So Trump got the signal from the boss: Tillerson stays. And Trump dropped it, like a hot potatoe. Pffff!! Gone. Against all his “interests”.
Why say this now? We have confirmation. Tillerson is operating completely on his own (he’s no longer effectively working for Trump; the real boss has spoken), and he’s offered NO PRECONDITIONS talks with North Korea. ZERO CHANCE Trump supports that. Zero.
Which leaves me in the absolutely nutzo position of having to say “thank you Putin”, because I dont want a few million dead in Korea/Japan and maybe even the USofA in I or my son’s lifetime. We live in strange times.
I hope that’s entertaining for you! I said it was a conspiracy theory, nothing more. They explain everything, lol!!!
Main hourly chart updated:
A notice to all members. Any further comments on sexual harassment, violence or abuse will be deleted.
This is the one topic which I will ban from my websites.
This is too personal and upsetting for me. I am not prepared to read about it nor discuss it here.
I thank you all for your understanding.
Great call Lara! I could not agree more that there are just some topics that really have little or no redeeming value to rehash on a forum like this.
If anyone had any doubts about criminal conduct in the Alabama vote all doubts are now erased. A renegade judge actually rejected a lower court order to preserve the digital voting records and ORDERED them destroyed the night of the election. Folk I don’t care what side of the political spectrum you are on. This is LAWLESSNESS!! Recounts are a matter of course with a half point margin of victory as a matter of course, which was true in this case.
We are living in BANANA REPUBLIC. Unbelievable!!!
It does appear the US is headed for civil war…
The current pump ahead of a possible 25 basis points rate hike was all too predictable. I had some doubts about whether the FED would follow through but the ramp up in equities just about confirms that is what we are going to get. Same old play-book….
1st Sign’s of a crack… RUT on a 20 min chart has a bearish reversal candle stick pattern… in place.
It is very unlikely we are going to see an intra-day reversal.
You can pretty much tell the kind of day we are going to have by keeping an eye on the futures market and all the declines overnight were aggressively bought. The banksters are still firmly in control and the mood of the herd remains on their side so far. Futures will be the arena in which we get the first indications of a change in the wind imho…
Overnight is the realm of the few and powerful to freely manipulate!
If and when this market turns it will be for all to see and participate in!
2PM today… maybe.
I suspect the changing of the guard with regard to herd sentiment is going to have to come via something truly significant. It is going to likely be some sort of exogenous shock that unmasks the remarkable disconnect between sentiment and reality. That is the reason I doubt you will see it during the regular session. Something will have to shatter the illusion of bankster invincibility and until then, the mania will continue… 🙂
I mentioned a day or two ago GLD was approaching it’s first key decision point, and it did, and turned. Hasn’t broken bearish symmetry yet. I’m still very suspicious we see a synchronous turn of the market down and gold up. Particularly if there’s a sell off that starts soon with NDX turning at it’s ATH, RUT off a double top, and SPX turning at it’s 1.27 extension. Watching carefully here. I’m already in NUGT (a super high leverage way to trade gold), which is hugely oversold in general.
No question but that markets are approaching key decision points synchronously here. Which in turn would make the significance of turns here that much greater, as I see it. Similarly if they all blow through. I believe it’s a key decision day.
When the miners are leading the charge that is generally a good sign for the yellow metal. I am long GLD after exiting the short side of my bearish call credit spread two days ago.
Best of luck on that one Verne! I’ll be actively trading NUGT here as (if) a bull run develops. Took todays profit.
First attempt to bust up and through a fail. However, there’s no breakdown whatsoever unless/until the recent swing low (this morning) is violated.
Joe to your query below I was referring to John Roberts Chief Justice. who single-handedly revived the Obamacare statute be re-defining the mandate as a tax. Everyone was stunned by his actions. Now we know why he did it. The Deep State it is reported, has by spying on US citizens amassed compromising data on the vast majority (some say over 65%) of individuals holding public office.
Since he made it a Tax… it can now be repealed in reconciliation at a majority vote. If it was classified as something else it would have needed 60 votes to get rid of. Since it’s in this tax bill, that OBC Tax is now history. A silver lining.
I bet the Dems are now real upset that they won that decision.
Roberts is now only the 2nd ultimate corporate shill, behind Gorsuch, who is an utter travesty. (He expects an employee to have to DIE for his company if asked, and if refused…you can be legitimately fired!). Roberts gave the US citizens united, which has decimated democracy in the US. The US is now a “buy your politician” country, so, surprise, the politicians are owned by the corporates (recognized legally as people, riddle me THAT batman!) and the uber rich. “Democracy for Sale!!!”. And that in turn has led to a total takeover of the US by an oligarchy, who are now looting the country. Success for Roberts, for sure.
I still see 2672, the 1.27% extension of the prior down move, as a key decision point for SPX.
Just Sold the DXD I owned for 8.8333 … I bought at 8.91 two weeks ago.
The write in votes were about 21,000… about the margin of victory. Many could not vote for Moore due to the unproven allegations.
Be carful out there… any group of people can now make allegations against you or anyone else and destroy your life. This can be done without you being charged or indicted of an actual crime.
The new USA… you are guilty unless you can prove you’re innocent!
Wow… Now a banana republic! More of what Liberals love.
Au contrare my friend. The people of Alabama delivered a huge “NO” to OUTRAGEOUS bigotry, racism and misogyny of Roy Moore and Trumpism. THANK YOU ALABAMA!!! Honestly, I’m shocked out of my mind, and people for whom values matter are dancing in the street. With certain clarity now, Trumpism will be terminated over the next 3 years. If the GOP under Trump can’t win Alabama, they will be going down EVERYWHERE. Hoo-ray.
You’re reaching! Like you always do! This vote had NOTHING to do with Trump!
There you go again… drinking the “coolaid”!
Thanks Joe!!!! Laughter is so very healthy.
I bet… not one woman will file charges against Roy More now that he lost!
This is typical of the Society the Liberals want in the USA.
They want… you’re Guilty of all accusations unless you can prove yourself innocent! No charges or indictments of an actual crime. No day in court!
Welcome to Liberal La La Land! The USA Banana Republic!
Wow… are you really that out of touch? Wow… you have zero knowledge of this born and raised New Yorker who has been in the public eye in the Tri-State region for the last 40 years?
Wow!
You’re truly brain washed!
You are so right on, Joe. One allegation of sexual misconduct against a man and his many decade long career can be demolished. It use to be that people were presumed innocent until proven guilty. Don’t get me wrong, I am all for changing our culture so that men don’t do such heinous acts. But this is as bad as the McCarthy Era.
For instance a recent Air Force Academy former cadet (female) said she was sexually molested at the Academy. The acts she named like a male cadet urinating on her car while being quite awful, where in no way sexual misconduct or molestation.
I am so very glad that the last 20 years of my career, I have taken a very proactive approach to avoid such possible accusations. I am in a very public position and accusations could be made and quite devastating if I had not protected myself.
I am really sad for our country and culture. First that there is such prevalent male sexual abuse and second that there appears to be a lynch mob mentality towards any man accused of such an act.
Everybody is due “due process”. I am more than a little glad I never, ever engaged in inappropriate behaviors in my 35 years in industry (mostly in management), that’s for sure. I suspect 15-20% of all men in the USofA wake up every morning with a sense of dread because they didn’t behave so well, and someone from the past just might be raising that to public awareness at any time. That in turn is forward PRESSURE will drive change and far, far better behaviors. And change is desperately needed. We men don’t get it, in general, in my opinion. To truly understand oppression, you really have to be in the position of the oppressed. The #metoo movement is fantastic for our country, for civil rights, for women AND men, and for equality under the law.
Nobody is getting due process and that is the problem with all this! Destroy their Life and Career 1st… them maybe there will be due process.
Women should be treated well. They should fight back.
Some of the allegations are Laughable though. For example…
“He aggressively kissed me”, what??? If you feel you received an unwanted kiss… pull away and slap the guy in the face! That will end the situation quickly!
That’s how it should be handled.
“he touched my shoulder” or my “arm” Come on women… Just tell the guy to F off!
Someone has to be aggressive on a 1st kiss or nobody will ever get kissed!
But… what is going on today, is a McCarthy Era lynch mob mentality. Rodney is right.
BTW: Here in NY & NJ (Especially in Bklyn, Queens, SI & Bronx… if a man over steps with the stuff I describe above, the women here take care of it right at the time of the incident. They let you know in no uncertain terms.
Situation ends!
Sorry guys (actually, that’s a sorry not sorry)….
I’m putting a stop right now to any discussion here about sexual assault and harassment.
I’m a woman. I’ve had more than my fair share of it over my life time, some of it would probably make you quite mad to hear of it. And so this is a VERY personal issue to me.
I know I’ll allow discussion of all topics, but I’m going to stop this one right here. Because it’s too personal and way too painful.
I never did report any of the assaults I have endured. I was too young, or the circumstances were such that I KNEW I would be disbelieved. And so comments about what women “should” do to stop assaults?
If you’ve never been in that situation you have no idea how you’ll behave. Me? I freeze. It’s terrifying.
And that’s the end there of this discussion. I’m not going to let this website be a place where I get upset about this, like the rest of the internet.
Kevin, agree 100%
IMO the #metoo movement is long over-due and is great for our country.
Equality is what we should strive for.
File some chargers through a court process then…
If not, it’s nothing but a lynch mob mentality.
Joeseph, that’s a far too simplistic view.
If I was ever assaulted again the NZ police would be the one organisation I would actively avoid. Not wanting to be further abused and traumatised.
It is not upon victims of this most devastating violence to change the system. We’re calling for the system to be fixed before we can engage with it.
Rumor has it that McConell tapped that piece of detritus Karl Rove to push that sleazy story about Moore to teach Bannon a lesson. There are some truly sick people in the Republican establishment. What makes these folk so dangerous is they present themselves as being different from Democrats. In a few ways I can think of they are much worse…
If that is true Vern… I agree 100%. There are a number of republicans that I have ZERO respect for. They were very vocal during the Primaries. The Never-Trump crew are the obvious ones.
Our founders did not set this system up to have career politician’s or lifetime politician’s. When there too long… the probability of corruption goes up materially and certainly when there too long their only goal is serve the special interests that will keep them in office perpetually and/or make them rich when they leave office.
That is why Term Limits are a MUST!
2 Terms in the Senate and 6 Terms in Congress – both of these = 12 years.
Nobody should hold office longer than that under any circumstances.
This I something the President has discussed during the campaign and is one thing I hope he can accomplish before the end of his 1st term.
Violent pre market price action in VIX. Massive smack downs that are promply bought. Looks like algo wars to me…seems we will have a battle around the 10.00 pivot once again today…
Once again we see the strange occurrence of democrat controlled districts late reporting of vote tallies. We kept seeing this peculiar thing repeatedly on election night last November. I am very surprised there is so little mention of this in news reports. I expect there will be….
The guy will be short lived in the Senate… every vote he makes will be against the interests of the vast majority of the people of Alabama. Term is only through 2020 in effect a 2 year term.
For 2018 only 1 Rep vote can be a no in the Senate.
For 2019 the Reps will gain more seats to 53 or 54 via Nov 2018 election.
As to late reporting… they have to bring in their phony ballots… it’s late because they have to figure out how many will make a difference.
CPI .40 … that is a bit hot if you extend for the year. 4.80%
Yep! They are quite brazen…
This is how Al Franken got into office. Fitting end.
Good morning!
VIX bumping up against recent resistance pivot at 10 in pre market. A decisive move and stay above probably indicates a short term correction underway. I will be once again taking profits on short term trades with any move above 11.00
The Proof is in the numbers!
NO Doubt that the Expectation of President Trump’s agenda (Mainly Tax Reform + other) would be implemented…
is ALREADY reflected in current stock prices.
No other way to explain these gains, it’s certainly not the 2%-2.50% increase in GAAP earnings or small revenue top line growth since that 11-8-16 date!
Since 11-8-2016 – Markets Since Election Day
To Close 12-12-2017
DOW
—————–
24,504.80
UP 6,172.06
UP 33.67%
=========
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
———————————
6,862.32
UP 1,668.83
UP 32.13%
========
S&P 500
—————
2,664.11
UP 524.55
UP 24.52%
=========
The Buy and Hold Crew did very, very, very well, I wish I was one of them this time around!
It’s time to sell on the news of final tax bill (final details) being put into law. The Final details may be agreed to later today and I would assume a summary of it will be released. Final full text to be completed over the weekend and released early next week with final vote (procedural) to immediately follow.
They are going to soon have to address the stunning corruption in both the FBI and DOJ. Sessions needs to be immediately replaced. He is clearly compromised and being blackmailed. Same as Roberts of SCOTUS.
Roberts?
doc is first
Shhhh!!!