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A new all time high has confirmed the alternate hourly Elliott wave count. The target will remain the same.

The AD line and VIX are both giving a signal today for what may happen tomorrow.

Summary: With a new all time high and some small support from volume today, we should assume the trend remains up. Targets remain at 2,732, and 2,773 for the mid term.

For the very short term, look tomorrow for a final small fifth wave up then a pullback for a second wave correction. The fifth wave may end about 2,672.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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Cycle wave V must complete as a five structure, which should look clear at the weekly chart level. It may only be an impulse or ending diagonal. At this stage, it is clear it is an impulse.

Within cycle wave V, the corrections for primary wave 2 and intermediate wave (2) both show up clearly, both lasting several weeks. The respective corrections for intermediate wave (4) and primary wave 4 should also last several weeks, so that they show up at weekly and monthly time frames. The right proportions between second and fourth wave corrections give a wave count the right look. This wave count expects to see two large multi week corrections coming up, and the first for intermediate wave (4) may now be quite close by.

Cycle wave V has passed equality in length with cycle wave I, which would be the most common Fibonacci ratio for it to have exhibited. The next most common Fibonacci ratio would be 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.

Intermediate wave (3) may now be nearing completion (the alternate hourly wave count looks at the possibility it could be complete at the last high). When it is complete, then intermediate wave (4) should unfold and be proportional to intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) may be very likely to break out of the yellow best fit channel that contains intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,193.81.

The yellow best fit channel is redrawn. Price points are given so that members may replicate this channel. This channel is copied over to the daily chart.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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The main wave count will now expect that within minor wave 5 minute waves i and ii are complete.

Within minute wave iii, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 2,624.85.

The target expects minor wave 5 to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Price is finding resistance about the mid line of the best fit channel.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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If minute wave ii is over, then minute wave iii upwards should exhibit an increase in momentum so that it stronger than minute wave i.

So far, within minute wave iii, minuette wave (i) may be incomplete. Minuette wave (ii) should break out of the narrow best fit channel drawn here about minuette wave (i). When price breaks out of this channel to the downside, then draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of minuette wave (i). The 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios would be targets for minuette wave (ii).


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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It is still possible that minute wave ii may not be complete and may be continuing as an expanded flat correction.

If price makes a new swing low below 2,624.85, then the target for downwards movement to end would be 2,604 to 2,600. This assumes the most common Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c), and the most common point for minute wave ii to end at.

Minuette wave (c) may last two days if minute wave ii exhibits a Fibonacci duration of eight, or it may last six days if minute wave (ii) exhibits a Fibonacci duration of thirteen.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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A more bearish option is still technically possible. It is possible that intermediate wave (4) may begin here or very soon.

A new low below 2,624.85 would add a little confidence in this idea.

A new low below 2,557.45 is required for confirmation of this idea. Only then should it be taken seriously.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three months. It may be a choppy overlapping large consolidation, or a deep sharp pullback (which may be over more quickly than three months). It should have some reasonable proportion to intermediate wave (2), so that the wave count has the right look at the weekly time frame.



S&P 500 weekly 2017
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There is no candlestick reversal pattern yet at highs.

Price and On Balance Volume continue to make new highs. This is bullish.

The trend is extreme, but as yet there is no reversal signal at this time frame.


S&P 500 daily 2017
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This chart still looks reasonably bearish. This market is overbought and exhibits weakness; it looks susceptible to a reasonable sized correction.

However, price keeps on going up and we have to go with price. While price remains above the last swing low of the 6th of December, it seems reasonable to assume that the trend may well remain up.

But if price makes a new swing low, it would then look like a larger correction may have arrived.

There is divergence between price and On Balance Volume, Stochastics and RSI. ATR continues to decline.

On Balance Volume may be giving a bullish signal today, but it needs to be clearer for confidence.


VIX daily 2017
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So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

Price has moved higher, but inverted VIX has diverged. The rise in price does not come with a normal corresponding decline in market volatility; volatility has increased. This indicates weakness today within price and is bearish.


AD Line daily 2017
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There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no longer term divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.

All of large, mid and small caps last week have made new all time highs. The rise in price has support from market breadth.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator. The AD line has diverged with price today. Price does not come with support from rising market breadth while it has moved higher. A decline in breadth today is bearish.


The DJIA, DJT, and S&P500 have last week made new all time highs. Only Nasdaq was unable to make a new all time high.

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 17,883.56.

DJT: 7,029.41.

S&P500: 2,083.79.

Nasdaq: 5,034.41.

Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory are here.

Published @ 10:10 p.m. EST.