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Upwards movement continues as expected. The Elliott wave target remains the same.

Summary: The next Elliott wave target is 2,773. While price remains above 2,606.41 and within the yellow best fit channel on the hourly chart, then assume the upwards trend remains intact.

The structure is incomplete at this stage, but some indicators are extreme and some weakness is beginning.

Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade. All trades should stick with the trend. The trend remains up.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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Cycle wave V must complete as a five structure, which should look clear at the weekly chart level. It may only be an impulse or ending diagonal. At this stage, it is clear it is an impulse.

Within cycle wave V, the corrections for primary wave 2 and intermediate wave (2) both show up clearly, both lasting several weeks. The respective corrections for intermediate wave (4) and primary wave 4 should also last several weeks, so that they show up at weekly and monthly time frames. The right proportions between second and fourth wave corrections give a wave count the right look.

Cycle wave V has passed equality in length with cycle wave I, which would be the most common Fibonacci ratio for it to have exhibited. The next most common Fibonacci ratio would be 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.

Intermediate wave (3) may now be nearing completion. When it is complete, then intermediate wave (4) should unfold and be proportional to intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) may be very likely to break out of the yellow best fit channel that contains intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,193.81.

The yellow best fit channel is today redrawn. Price points are given so that members may replicate this channel.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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Minor wave 4 may now be complete. It will subdivide very well as a double zigzag. This provides only a little alternation in structure with the single zigzag of minor wave 2. There is also poor alternation in depth: minor wave 2 was very shallow at only 0.16 of minor wave 1, and minor wave 4 would be only 0.12 of minor wave 3. Alternation is a guideline and not a rule; it is seen more often than not, but not always.

The target calculated for minor wave 5 expects it to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio for a fifth wave. This target would not expect a Fibonacci ratio for intermediate wave (3) to intermediate wave (1).

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,557.45.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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With an increase in upwards momentum for Thursday’s session, it looks like minute wave iii may have ended at today’s high.

The short term best fit channel is here adjusted. Minute wave iv may continue either sideways or a little lower when markets open tomorrow; it may find support at the lower edge of the short term channel.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 2,601.19.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. When minute wave iv is complete, then the target may be calculated at minute degree. A new target will probably be reasonably lower than the current target at 2,773.



S&P 500 weekly 2017
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Lighter volume for a week with a US holiday in it would be expected. On its own, this lighter volume should not be taken as a signal that a high is in place.

Some weakness and overbought indicators should be expected as intermediate wave (3) comes to an end.


S&P 500 daily 2017
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Another upwards day shows: an increase in volume, ADX remaining bullish, and now ATR showing some increase.

There is still some divergence between price and RSI and Stochastics and On Balance Volume to indicate some weakness. This is not a useful timing tool though; it can only be taken as a warning that a high is approaching. Yesterday’s triple divergence between price and RSI was noted, but that has mostly disappeared today to only single divergence. This is an illustration of why divergence is not a timing tool because sometimes it just disappears.

If On Balance Volume makes a new high, then this chart would be fully bullish. While it exhibits divergence, it will still exhibit some weakness.


VIX daily 2017
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So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

Again, price and VIX have strongly diverged today. Price has moved higher, but inverted VIX has moved lower. The rise in price did not come with a normal corresponding decline in volatility; instead, volatility has strongly increased, which is unusual. This was noted two days ago but the divergence did not lead to any downwards movement. The normal interpretation of this divergence would be to indicate weakness in price, because volatility is not a leading indicator.


AD Line daily 2017
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There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no longer term divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.

All of large, mid and small caps last week have made new all time highs. The rise in price has support from market breadth.

Price moved higher today and has support from a rise in market breadth. This is bullish.


Only DJT has not made a new all time high last week. The S&P500, DJIA and Nasdaq all this week made new all time highs.

Failure to confirm an ongoing bull market should absolutely not be read as the end of a bull market. For that, Dow Theory would have to confirm new lows.

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 17,883.56.

DJT: 7,029.41.

S&P500: 2,083.79.

Nasdaq: 5,034.41.

Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory are here.

Published @ 06:33 p.m. EST.