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Upwards movement continues as was expected from the main Elliott wave count. The targets remain the same.

An alternate wave count is considered, but classic technical analysis indicates it has a lower probability.

Summary: The first Elliott wave target is again at 2,614. A target using the measured rule is 2,634. The second Elliott wave target is 2,773. As price approaches each target, if the structure is incomplete and there is no weakness in price, then the next target will be used. But if price approaches a target and the structure is complete and there is some classic weakness, then a high may be in place.

The structure is incomplete at this stage, but some indicators are extreme and some weakness is beginning.

Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade. All trades should stick with the trend. The trend remains up.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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Cycle wave V must complete as a five structure, which should look clear at the weekly chart level. It may only be an impulse or ending diagonal. At this stage, it is clear it is an impulse.

Within cycle wave V, the corrections for primary wave 2 and intermediate wave (2) both show up clearly, both lasting several weeks. The respective corrections for intermediate wave (4) and primary wave 4 should also last several weeks, so that they show up at weekly and monthly time frames. The right proportions between second and fourth wave corrections give a wave count the right look.

Cycle wave V has passed equality in length with cycle wave I, which would be the most common Fibonacci ratio for it to have exhibited. The next most common Fibonacci ratio would be 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.

Intermediate wave (3) may now be nearing completion. When it is complete, then intermediate wave (4) should unfold and be proportional to intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) may be very likely to break out of the yellow best fit channel that contains intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,193.81.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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Minor wave 4 may now be complete. It will subdivide very well as a double zigzag. This provides only a little alternation in structure with the single zigzag of minor wave 2. There is also poor alternation in depth: minor wave 2 was very shallow at only 0.16 of minor wave 1, and minor wave 4 would be only 0.12 of minor wave 3. Alternation is a guideline and not a rule; it is seen more often than not, but not always.

The first target at 2,614 would see a Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1), but no Fibonacci ratio for minor wave 5. This would be acceptable. There is already a somewhat reasonable Fibonacci ratio between the two actionary waves of minor waves 3 and 1, so minor wave 5 may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.

The second target calculated for minor wave 5 expects it to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio for a fifth wave. This target would not expect a Fibonacci ratio for intermediate wave (3) to intermediate wave (1).

If price gets up to the first target, and the structure may be complete and there is some divergence with price and Stochastics or RSI, then members are warned that it would be possible for a high to be in place for the mid term. But if price keeps rising through the first target, then the second target would be used.

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,557.45.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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This wave count would still fit very neatly with the first Elliott wave target at 2,614.

Minute wave iii may now be complete as a long extension with a close Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i. This wave count agrees with MACD: the middle of minute wave iii has strongest momentum, the end of minute wave iii exhibits some divergence, and the end of subminuette wave iii within minuette wave (iii) has the strongest reading on the histogram.

Minute wave iv may end about the lower edge of the best fit channel.

Minute wave ii was a deep zigzag lasting four hours. Minute wave iv may exhibit alternation as a flat, combination or triangle. These structures tend to be more time consuming than zigzags, and it may last longer than four hours.

Minute wave iv would most likely be shallow. If minute wave iv ends about the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio at 2,595, then it would end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.

When minute wave iv is complete, then minute wave v upwards should unfold to new highs.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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A five up may be complete. This may only be minute wave i within minor wave 5.

This wave count would now expect a pullback for minute wave ii.

Minute wave ii may end about either the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratios. The first small second wave correction for the S&P is sometimes shallow, and that is why I have put the label for minute wave ii closer to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio. Members should be aware of this possibility.

The next target for this alternate wave count, at 2,773, has a better fit.

Minute wave ii may be unfolding as an expanded flat correction. Within minute wave ii, subminuette wave (b) is a little longer than the maximum most common length to subminuette wave (a) of 1.32 but still within the allowable conventional limit of up to 2.



S&P 500 weekly 2017
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Lighter volume for a week with a US holiday in it would be expected. On its own, this lighter volume should not be taken as a signal that a high is in place.

Some weakness and overbought indicators should be expected as intermediate wave (3) comes to an end.


S&P 500 daily 2017
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Stochastics is again only just entering overbought. If it develops clear bearish divergence, that may signal a high quickly approaching or in place.

The target using the measured rule for the flag pattern is at 2,634.


VIX daily 2017
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So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

There is still mid term bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX. This indicates weakness in price. It has been noted in recent months that mid term divergence for VIX does not appear to be very reliable, so it will be given no weight today in this analysis.


AD Line daily 2017
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There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no longer term divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.

All of large, mid and small caps this week have made new all time highs. The rise in price has support from market breadth.

The AD line has also made new all time highs. Market breadth is full bore bullish.


Only DJT has not made a new all time high this week. The S&P500, DJIA and Nasdaq all this week made new all time highs.

Failure to confirm an ongoing bull market should absolutely not be read as the end of a bull market. For that, Dow Theory would have to confirm new lows.

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 17,883.56.

DJT: 7,029.41.

S&P500: 2,083.79.

Nasdaq: 5,034.41.

Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory are here.

Published @ 03:40 p.m. EST on 25th November, 2017.