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A little more upwards movement today reached just above the target.

Summary: Another short term pullback to last about two to five days may begin tomorrow. It may pull price down to about 2,464 to 2,450.

If the channel on the hourly chart is breached early tomorrow, then have some confidence in the expectation of a pullback. If it is not, then the target for primary wave 3 to end would then be at 2,497.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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This wave count is identical to the alternate wave count up to the high labelled minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (5) within primary wave 3.

This wave count sees primary wave 3 as incomplete, but close to completion.

Within primary wave 3 impulse, the final wave of intermediate wave (5) is seen as incomplete. Intermediate wave (5) is subdividing as an impulse.

When intermediate wave (5) is complete, then primary wave 3 would be complete. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 2,111.05.

If price reaches the target at 2,500 and either the structure is incomplete or price keeps rising, then the next target would be the next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence between cycle waves I and V. At 2,926 cycle wave V would reach 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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The daily chart shows only the structure of intermediate wave (5); this structure is an impulse.

Within intermediate wave (5), minor waves 1 through to 4 are now complete. The final fifth wave of minor wave 5 should now be underway. Within minor wave 5, the upcoming correction for minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 2,430.98.

Minor wave 5 looks like it is extending. When waves extend, they show their lower degree subdivisions at higher time frames and here, within minor wave 5, minute wave ii is clear and minute wave iv should be also. That means that when it arrives minute wave iv may last two or so days.

Within minute wave iii, the subdivisions of minuette waves (ii) and (iv) now look clear on the daily chart.

There is perfect alternation between the deep expanded flat of minor wave 2 and the shallow double zigzag of minor wave 4.


S&P 500 hourly 2017
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Minor wave 5 may be subdividing as an impulse so far. The middle of the third wave has the strongest upwards momentum. This wave count fits so far with MACD.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). Minuette wave (v) is just a little too much longer than equality in length with minuette wave (i) to say they have a Fibonacci ratio. But it is not uncommon for the S&P to not exhibit Fibonacci ratios between all three of its actionary waves.

The channel about minute wave iii still needs to be clearly breached by downwards movement before confidence may be had that minute wave iii is over. If this labelling is correct, then that should happen at the start of next session.

If it does not happen, and if a new all time high is made tomorrow, then the target for primary wave 3 at 2,478 will be wrong and minor wave 5 would be extending further. The next target would be about 2,497 where minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

When minute wave iii is complete, then minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 2,430.98.

Minute wave iv may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Minuette wave (iv) has its price territory from 2,463.54 to 2,450.34. The lower edge of this range is also a strong area of support.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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Primary wave 4 may now be underway.

Primary wave 2 was a regular flat correction that lasted 10 weeks. Given the guideline of alternation, primary wave 4 may most likely be a single or multiple zigzag or a triangle and may last about a Fibonacci eight or thirteen weeks, so that the wave count has good proportion and the right look. So far it has lasted three weeks. This is far too brief to be considered complete or even close to complete.

Primary wave 4 may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Intermediate wave (4) has its range from 2,400.98 to 2,322.35.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 2,111.05.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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A new all time high means a double zigzag for primary wave 4 is still possible but much less likely. A double combination would be more likely but would not offer very good alternation with the flat correction of primary wave 2.

What would still offer good alternation would be a running contracting triangle.

Within the triangle, intermediate wave (A) can be easily seen as a double zigzag. All remaining sub-waves of the triangle should then be simple A-B-C corrections.

There is a rule for expanding triangles stating that no sub-wave may be longer than 1.5 times the length of the prior wave. This rule will be applied here to intermediate wave (B) of this triangle, which may be any of the three types (contracting, barrier or expanding). That price point is at 2,477.88.

At this stage, intermediate wave (B) is now reasonably longer than intermediate wave (A). As price moves higher, the probability of this wave count reduces. The probability today is now fairly low.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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Intermediate wave (C) of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A) below 2,407.70. Although an expanding triangle would be valid, they are the rarest of Elliott wave structures. In my nine years of daily Elliott wave analysis I have only ever seen one structure which in hindsight was an expanding triangle. If price makes a new low here below 2,407.70, then another scenario would be considered.



S&P 500 weekly 2017
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Candlesticks, volume, and On Balance Volume are bullish.

ADX, RSI and MACD are bearish.

Overall, give more weight to volume and On Balance Volume.


S&P 500 daily 2017
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Look now for support about 2,450 for any pullbacks within this upwards trend.

Volume today supports downwards movement during this session. This suggests a downwards day tomorrow.

The trend looks healthy, except for ATR.

Corrections are an opportunity to join the trend.


VIX daily 2017
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Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

There are five instances of hidden bearish divergence on this chart; instances where inverted VIX made a new high but price did not make a corresponding new high. This divergence is bearish and indicates weakness within price. Three of those prior four instances were followed by some downwards movement.

A fifth instance of hidden bearish divergence, which began yesterday, continues today. This may be followed by one or two days of downwards movement before it may be resolved.


AD Line daily 2017
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With the last all time high for price, the AD line also made a new all time high. Up to the last high for price there was support from rising market breadth.

There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.

There is no divergence today between price and the AD line. Both have now made new all time highs. Upwards movement from price today has support from rising market breadth

Lowry’s measures of internal market strength and health continue to show a healthy bull market. The rise in price comes with expanding buying power and contracting selling pressure, normal and healthy for a bull market, even an old one.

Historically, almost every bear market is preceded by at least 4-6 months of divergence with price and market breadth. There is no divergence at all at this time. This strongly suggests this old bull market has at least 4-6 months to continue, and very possibly longer.


The S&P500, DJIA and DJT have all made new all time highs.

Nasdaq has made a new all time high. Modified Dow Theory (adding in technology as a barometer of our modern economy) sees all indices confirming the ongoing bull market.

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 17,883.56.

DJT: 7,029.41.

S&P500: 2,083.79.

Nasdaq: 5,034.41.

Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory are here.

This analysis is published @ 07:43 p.m. EST.