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A small range inside week completes, which is exactly what was expected at the beginning of the week. Price is consolidating.

Summary: Expect a sideways consolidation to continue into next week as well. When it is done, it should offer a good entry point to join the longer term upwards trend.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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This wave count has a better fit with MACD and so may have a higher probability.

Primary wave 3 may be complete, falling short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1 and not exhibiting a Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. There is a good Fibonacci ratio within primary wave 3.

The target for cycle wave V will remain the same, which has a reasonable probability. At 2,518 primary wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of primary wave 1. If the target at 2,500 is exceeded, it may not be by much.

There is alternation between the regular flat correction of primary wave 2 and the triangle of primary wave 4.

Within primary wave 3, there is alternation between the double zigzag of intermediate wave (2) and the double combination of intermediate wave (4).

Within primary wave 5, the correction for intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,398.16.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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Primary wave 5 must complete as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse (more common) or an ending diagonal (less common). So far, if this wave count is correct, it looks like an impulse.

At the daily chart level, intermediate wave (3) now looks like a complete five wave impulse. With subsequent downwards movement moving into minor wave 1 price territory below 2,418.71, this downwards movement cannot be a continuation of minor wave 4, so minor wave 4 must be over.

Intermediate wave (2) was a very deep 0.84 expanded flat correction. The guideline of alternation tells us to expect a shallow single or multiple zigzag as most likely for intermediate wave (4). It may also be a triangle and achieve alternation in structure.

Intermediate wave (2) lasted 16 sessions. Intermediate wave (4) may be expected to last at least two weeks and so far it has lasted only one. Good proportion between corrective waves gives a wave count the right look. If my labelling within intermediate wave (4) so far is wrong, it may be in expecting that minor wave A is already over. But it may continue further, so labelling within intermediate wave (4) may need to be moved down one degree.

Intermediate wave (4) may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Minor wave 4 has its range from 2,440.23 to 2,424.25.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,398.16.


S&P 500 hourly 2017
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It is impossible to tell if the downwards wave labelled minor wave A is a three wave zigzag or a five wave impulse. It may be either. If it is a three, then minor wave B may make a new all time high as in an expanded flat or running triangle.

With sideways movement over the last few days, it now looks more likely that minor wave B is not over. It may be completing sideways as a regular contracting or regular barrier triangle.

Minute wave c of the triangle may not move beyond the end of minute wave a above 2,443.75. Minute wave d of the triangle may not move reasonably below the end of minute wave b at 2,418.53.

I have not published a possible flat correction for minor wave B, because the wave down labelled minute wave b is only 89.9% of minute wave a. The minimum requirement for minute wave b within a flat correction is 90% and this falls very slightly short.

A flat correction would be possible if minute wave b is an incomplete double zigzag, which may move a little lower. If that happens, then I will publish the idea.

At this stage, it is still impossible to tell with any reasonable level of confidence what structure minor wave B may be completing as. The labelling within it will still probably change as the structure becomes clearer, or further alternates may still be published.

The focus should be on avoiding trading a range bound market when B waves unfold and not trying to predict each small move within them. Focus should be on identifying when the corrective structure may be complete and then joining the larger trend.

At this stage, I cannot see minor wave B as a complete corrective structure.


S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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This weekly chart has been published with a slight variation before.

It is still possible that intermediate wave (4) is incomplete and may be continuing as a very common expanded flat correction.

This weekly wave count expects a slow end to Grand Super Cycle wave I at the target at 2,500. Once intermediate wave (4) is over, then intermediate wave (5) would be expected to move above the end of intermediate wave (3) at 2,400.98 to avoid a truncation; it need not make a new all time high (but would be likely to do so).

Thereafter, another multi week sideways correction for primary wave 4 may unfold that must remain above primary wave 1 price territory, which has its extreme at 2,111.05.

Finally, a last upwards wave for primary wave 5 towards the target at 2,500 should show substantial weakness.

This wave count allows for the target at 2,500 to be reached possibly in October.

When looking at upwards movement so far on the monthly chart, the corrections of intermediate waves (2) and (4) show up. This is how the labelling fits best at that time frame.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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Expanded flat corrections are very common structures. They subdivide 3-3-5. Within this one, minor wave B would now be beyond the common range of 1 to 1.38 the length of minor wave A.

Within minor wave C, no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 2,446.20. If price makes a new high above this point, at that stage the idea of an expanded flat correction continuing would be discarded.


S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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It is also still possible that the expanded flat correction could be labelled primary wave 4.

This wave count combines two ideas in the first two weekly charts published above: the structure of primary wave 3 as complete and a current expanded flat unfolding here may be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 2,111.05.



S&P 500 weekly 2017
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An inside week completes a small spinning top candlestick pattern. This puts the trend from up to neutral; price is consolidating. A spinning top is a pause within a trend.

An increase in volume this week suggests that the breakout after consolidation is likely to be upwards.

On Balance Volume trend lines are adjusted.


S&P 500 daily 2017
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The last six daily candlesticks all have longer lower wicks. This is bullish.

A strong increase in volume for Friday is bullish.

On Balance Volume trend lines may need to be adjusted when a new range is clearer. The prior weak bearish signal is now negated. On Balance Volume may now be read as neutral.


VIX daily 2017
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Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

There is weak bearish divergence between price and VIX: VIX has made a slight new high, but price has not. This divergence will be given no weight because the new high for VIX (inverted) is only very slight.


AD Line daily 2017
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With the last all time high for price, the AD line also made a new all time high. Up to the last high for price there was support from rising market breadth.

There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. With no divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.

There is no new divergence today between price and the AD line.

The mid caps and small caps have made new all time highs along with recent last all time high for large caps. The rise in price is seen across the range of the market, so it has internal strength.


At the end of last week, DJIA, Nasdaq and the S&P500 have all made new all time highs. DJT has failed to confirm an ongoing bull market because it has not yet made new a all time high. However, at this stage that only indicates some potential weakness within the ongoing bull market and absolutely does not mean that DJT may not yet make new all time highs, and it does not mean a bear market is imminent.

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 17,883.56.

DJT: 7,029.41.

S&P500: 2,083.79.

Nasdaq: 5,034.41.

Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory are here.

This analysis is published @ 07:02 p.m. EST on 17th June, 2017.