Category Archives: FTSE

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2016

Downwards movement was again expected for FTSE.

Although upwards movement remains below the invalidation point and is just at the trend line, this market is not behaving as expected. I have a new alternate wave count which should be seriously considered.

Summary: With upwards movement of 17th February on an increase in volume, this market is not behaving as expected. A new wave count is required. A new high above 6,115.10 would invalidate the main wave count and confirm the new alternate. At that stage, expect FTSE is most likely in a larger and deeper bear market rally which may end about 6,453.

To see a monthly chart and the bigger picture, with an explanation of why there are only bear wave counts for FTSE, click here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WEEKLY WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

From the all time high in April 2015, FTSE has a five down and a three up. This current fall should move well below the end of intermediate wave (1) at 5,768.22 and then remain below that point. Intermediate wave (3) must move beyond the end of intermediate wave (1), far enough below to allow room for a subsequent fourth wave which may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

Price has now made a new low below the August low at 5,768.22. Downwards movement should continue, if this wave count is correct.

The main difference between this main wave count and the new alternate is the correction labelled here minor wave 2 within intermediate wave (1). This main wave count sees that movement as a combination: flat – X – zigzag lasting 19 days. There is alternation between minor waves 2 and 4: minor 2 was a combination and minor 4 was a triangle. Minor wave 4 lasted 35 days.

MAIN DAILY WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far the middle of the third wave may not have passed for FTSE. Upwards movement labelled minuette wave (ii) is back in minute wave i price territory. This cannot be minute wave iv, so it may only be yet another second wave correction if this wave count is correct.

Intermediate wave (2) lasted 42 days. Minor wave 2 lasted 11 days. Minute wave ii lasted 9 days. Each subsequent second wave is shorter in duration than its predecessor giving the wave count the right look. None of these waves are exhibiting Fibonacci durations.

Minuette wave (ii) may have completed in a Fibonacci 8 days total, reaching a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. A lower degree second wave correction should not breach a base channel drawn about a first and second wave one or more degrees higher.

Within minuette wave (iii), yet another first and second wave may be completing for subminuette waves i and ii. Again, subminuette wave ii is in the price territory of the first wave one degree higher, so this upwards movement may not be minuette wave (iv). If this wave count is correct, then this may only be yet another second wave correction.

Subminuette wave ii has passed the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. The last daily candlestick has closed just above the base channel. If this wave count is correct, then upwards movement should stop here. Price should find resistance at the base channel.

So far the lower edge of the base channel is providing support. If price manages to break below this support line, then it would be confirming a big third wave should be underway.

The target for intermediate wave (3) remains the same at 4,296 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

A shorter term target is calculated for minuette wave (iii). At 5,023 it would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

If targets are wrong, they may not be low enough.

Of all the indices I follow with Elliott wave counts, FTSE remains the clearest bear.

ALTERNATE WEEKLY WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The first movement after the all time high is seen differently for this alternate wave count. At the daily chart level, it does not have as good a fit which is why it will remain an alternate until confirmed by price.

If there are two corrections within there rather than just the one, now minute wave i does not subdivide perfectly as a five and looks like a three on the daily chart.

Now minor waves 2 and 4 are more grossly disproportionate.

This wave count sees the possibility of a five wave impulse over at the recent low, with minor wave 5 an ending expanding diagonal.

Intermediate wave (2) may continue for weeks and may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 6,453.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 7,122.70.

ALTERNATE DAILY WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

If price moves above 6,115.10 and invalidates the main wave count, then this wave count would be confirmed.

The most likely target for intermediate wave (2) is the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 6,453.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

Upwards movement for the 17th of February comes with an increase in volume. This is concerning for the main wave count and supports the alternate.

The stalled pattern, a bearish version of three white soldiers, is invalidated by the following long green candlestick.

ADX indicates the market is not trending, but it may be about to indicate a trend change: the -DX line is crossing below the +DX line.

ATR is increasing. This indicates the market is trending.

RSI is just above neutral. There is room for this market to rise or fall.

Stochastics is also just above neutral. There is room for the market to rise or fall.

This analysis is published @ 03:43 a.m. EST on 18th February, 2016.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2016

Downwards movement for FTSE continues as expected.

Upwards corrections remain within the base channel as expected.

Summary: There may now be five overlapping first and second waves for FTSE. This indicates an explosive downwards movement may be ahead. The mid term target remains the same at 4,296. The risk is at 6,115.10, or the upper edge of the green channel on the daily chart. The Elliott wave count is supported by technical analysis.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

WEEKLY WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

From the all time high in April 2015, FTSE has a five down and a three up. This current fall should move well below the end of intermediate wave (1) at 5,768.22 and then remain below that point. Intermediate wave (3) must move beyond the end of intermediate wave (1), far enough below to allow room for a subsequent fourth wave which may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

Price has now made a new low below the August low at 5,768.22. Downwards movement should continue.

DAILY WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far the middle of the third wave cannot have passed for FTSE. Upwards movement labelled minuette wave (ii) is back in minute wave i price territory. This cannot be minute wave iv, so it may only be yet another second wave correction if this wave count is correct.

Intermediate wave (2) lasted 42 days. Minor wave 2 lasted 11 days. Minute wave ii lasted 9 days. Each subsequent second wave is shorter in duration than its predecessor giving the wave count the right look. None of these waves are exhibiting Fibonacci durations.

Minuette wave (ii) may have completed in a Fibonacci 8 days total, reaching a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. A lower degree second wave correction should not breach a base channel drawn about a first and second wave one or more degrees higher.

Within minuette wave (iii), yet another first and second wave may be complete for subminuette waves i and ii. Again, subminuette wave ii is in the price territory of the first wave one degree higher, so this upwards movement may not be minuette wave (iv). If this wave count is correct, then this may only be yet another second wave correction.

Subminuette wave ii has reached up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of subminuette wave i which is about 5,872. It would be very likely to end here. If it does end here, then it would have taken a Fibonacci three days duration. The pattern of each successive second wave correction being more brief than its predecessor should be expected to continue.

If subminuette wave ii continues any higher, then it should find resistance at the upper edge of the base channel drawn about minuette waves (i) and (ii), one degree higher.

So far the lower edge of the base channel is providing support. If price manages to break below this support line, then it would be confirming a big third wave should be underway.

The target for intermediate wave (3) remains the same at 4,296 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

A shorter term target is calculated for minuette wave (iii). At 5,023 it would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

If targets are wrong, they may not be low enough.

Of all the indices I follow with Elliott wave counts, FTSE remains the clearest bear.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

The volume profile for FTSE continues to be more bearish than bullish. As price fell to the last low of 11th February, it came with some increase in volume. The fall in price was supported by volume. As price rose on 12th and 15th February, it came with declining volume (Yahoo Finance volume data for 16th February is not yet available). This indicates the rise in price was not supported by volume. This supports the Elliott wave count.

The last three daily candlesticks complete a stalled pattern, a variation of three white soldiers. While three white soldiers is a reversal pattern, when the third candlestick is small and follows two tall white candlesticks (here they are green) then it indicates the power of the bulls is weakening. This pattern sometimes precedes a decline. This supports the Elliott wave count.

ADX is declining, so it indicates the market is no longer trending. It does not indicate there has been a trend change though; the -DX line remains above the +DX line, so if the trend returns it should still be down.

ATR is overall still increasing. This indicates the market is still likely trending.

The last three days of upwards movement from price has bought RSI back up to neutral. There is plenty of room for this market to rise or fall.

Stochastics is returning from oversold. There is some divergence between the last two swing lows in price and the corresponding lows on Stochastics: while price made a new low Stochastics made a higher low. This indicates some weakness in price. I have learned the hard way though to not give this divergence between price and Stochastics too much weight. On its own, it is just a weak bullish signal. There is no divergence between the high of 16th February and the last swing high of 1st February; as price made a lower high, so did Stochastics.

This analysis is published @ 10:17 p.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd February, 2016

A new low below the August low of 5,768.22 was required and expected.

This week’s FTSE analysis is for members only. To subscribe click here.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd February, 2016

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th January, 2016

A new low below the August low of 5,768.22 was required and expected.

Summary: The middle of the third wave cannot have passed yet for FTSE. The correction can only be another second wave bounce. The invalidation point is at 6,314.6.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

WEEKLY WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

From the all time high in April 2015, FTSE has a five down and a three up. This current fall should move well below the end of intermediate wave (1) at 5,768.22 and then remain below that point. Intermediate wave (3) must move beyond the end of intermediate wave (1), far enough below to allow room for a subsequent fourth wave which may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

Price has now made a new low below the August low at 5,768.22. Downwards movement should continue.

DAILY WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far the middle of the third wave cannot have passed for FTSE. Upwards movement of the last three days is back in minute wave i price territory. This cannot be minute wave iv, so it may only be yet another second wave correction if this wave count is correct.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) price territory above 6,314.6.

Intermediate wave (2) lasted 42 days. Minor wave 2 lasted 11 days. Minute wave ii lasted 9 days. Each subsequent second wave is shorter in duration than its predecessor giving the wave count the right look. None of these waves are exhibiting Fibonacci durations.

Minuette wave (ii) may be expected to be quicker than 9 days. So far it has lasted three. It should be choppy and overlapping and volume should decline as it continues. It may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i) at 6,048. If it is deeper than that, then it should find resistance at the upper edge of the pink base channel.

The target for intermediate wave (3) remains the same at 4,296 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Of all the indices I follow with Elliott wave counts, FTSE remains the clearest bear.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

As price falls, it comes with stronger volume consistently. The fall in price is well supported by volume; the strongest volume is seen on downwards days. The volume profile continues to be bearish.

ADX is still increasing indicating a downwards trend, but the rate of increase is declining. ATR is declining indicating the market has just entered a correction.

This correction is resolving RSI being slightly oversold. It is returning to neutral.

If FTSE is in a correction, then it may not find resistance at the 9 day EMA and may whipsaw about that line. Resistance may be found 1,950, the next horizontal trend line. The upwards swing should be expected to continue until price finds resistance and Stochastics reaches overbought at the same time.

This analysis is published @ 02:12 a.m. EST on 26th January, 2016.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th January, 2016

FTSE continues to fall as this analysis has been expecting.

Summary: FTSE may still be within the middle of a third wave down, and the very middle has not yet passed. Downwards momentum should be expected to increase. The middle of the third wave may end at 5,383. Look out for surprises in this market to be to the downside, not just in price but market behaviour overall.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

WEEKLY WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

From the all time high in April 2015, FTSE has a five down and a three up. This current fall should move well below the end of intermediate wave (1) at 5,768.22 and then remain below that point. Intermediate wave (3) must move beyond the end of intermediate wave (1), far enough below to allow room for a subsequent fourth wave which may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

A new low below the August low of intermediate wave (1) at 5,768.22 is required and expected.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 6,079.79 when minor wave 3 is a complete impulse.

DAILY WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The current wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave. It is my judgement that this wave count has a higher probability.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be confirmed as the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). When minor waves 3 and 4 within this impulse are complete, then the target may also be calculated at minor degree. At that stage, it may widen to a zone or it may change.

Within intermediate wave (3), I am removing the target for minor wave 3. It will again be calculated when minute waves iii and iv within the impulse are complete. For now I want to focus on the next interruption to the trend expected at the end of minute wave iii.

At 5,383 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may not be low enough.

The pink channel is a base channel drawn about minute waves i and ii. The lower edge should be breached by a strong third wave, but before that happens that line may provide a little support temporarily. That same line may provide resistance for a throwback when it is breached.

When the base channel is breached, then it may be removed and an acceleration channel drawn.

No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 6,011.13 within minuette wave (iii).

I will keep following the alternate in last analysis, but I will publish only one wave count today for reasons of clarity because the alternate does not diverge in terms of short term structure or expected direction at this stage.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

As price falls, it comes with stronger volume consistently. The fall in price is well supported by volume; the strongest volume is seen on downwards days. The volume profile continues to be bearish.

ADX is increasing indicating the market is definitely trending and the trend is down. ATR agrees as it too is increasing.

RSI is not yet oversold. There is still room for this market to fall. RSI can move into extreme oversold and remain there while the market continues to fall in a strong bear move. I will be looking for divergence between price and RSI to indicate a bounce and will not necessarily expect RSI moving into oversold to indicate the end of this third wave.

Stochastics is oversold, but this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. It shows a little divergence today between the last low for Friday and the prior swing low of 12th January. This may indicate another small bounce to unfold when markets open next week.

Along the way down, FTSE may find resistance at the 13 day EMA.

This analysis is published about 01:01 a.m. EST on 17th January, 2016.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th January, 2016

Again, I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: FTSE may be within the middle of a third wave down. The middle of the third wave may end at 5,383.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The current wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave. It is my judgement that this wave count has a higher probability.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be confirmed as the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). When minor waves 3 and 4 within this impulse are complete, then the target may also be calculated at minor degree. At that stage, it may widen to a zone or it may change.

Within intermediate wave (3), I am removing the target for minor wave 3. It will again be calculated when minute waves iii and iv within the impulse are complete. For now I want to focus on the next interruption to the trend expected at the end of minute wave iii.

At 5,383 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may not be low enough.

Minute wave ii was not over as expected at last analysis but moved higher. It is more likely to be over now that it is a clear three wave structure. Minor wave 2 one degree higher was deeper at 0.9 and longer lasting at 12 days than minute wave ii which was 0.77 and lasted 8 days. These corrections are still in proportion giving this part of the wave count the right look.

The lower cyan trend line is slightly adjusted. If it is drawn from the swing lows of 24th August to 29th September, then it shows where price found resistance on 18th and 21st December. Price has closed below this line today which may provide some resistance for a small bounce. If that happens, then it may present a good entry point to join a downwards trend.

The black channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Intermediate wave (3) should have the power to break below support at the lower edge of this channel.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The Elliott channel is not working perfectly, but it may still show where price may find some resistance along the way down.

Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 6,314.57.

At 5,787 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

Overall volume was low and light as price rose to the last high of 29th December. Today, a strong downwards day shows a strong increase in volume. The fall in price is supported by volume.

Price has closed below the sloping cyan trend line. This may now provide some resistance to upwards corrections along the way down.

If price can close below the support line about 6,030, then the next line of support is about 5,870.

ADX is flat to declining and is not indicating there is a trend yet. ATR is beginning to increase which may be the start of a new trend.

RSI is again neutral allowing room for the market to fall.

Stochastics is returning from overbought.

Price should be expected to fall until it finds support, and to bounce about there.

This analysis is published about 03:01 p.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th December, 2015

Again, I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: FTSE may be within the middle of a third wave down. The middle of the third wave may end at 5,229.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The current wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave. I am swapping over the two wave counts this week. It is my judgement that this wave count has a higher probability.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be confirmed as the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). When minor waves 3 and 4 within this impulse are complete, then the target may also be calculated at minor degree. At that stage, it may widen to a zone or it may change.

Within intermediate wave (3), I am removing the target for minor wave 3. It will again be calculated when minute waves iii and iv within the impulse are complete. For now I want to focus on the next interruption to the trend expected at the end of minute wave iii.

At 5,229 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may not be low enough.

Minute wave ii has very likely ended at Thursday’s high as it should find resistance at the upwards sloping cyan trend line. If it does not end there though and continues, then it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 6,447.34. This is the risk with the FTSE wave count today.

The black channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Intermediate wave (3) should have the power to break below support at the lower edge of this channel.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The Elliott channel is not working perfectly, but it may still show where price may find some resistance along the way down.

No second wave correction may move beyond its start above 6,447.34 within minute wave iii.

At 5,787 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

There was some support by an increase in volume as price fell. Stronger volume is seen for downwards days than upwards days. Most importantly, the last three days of upwards movement has come on declining volume for each successive day.

There is a very strong bearish engulfing candlestick pattern at the high of 2nd December. Thursday’s green candlestick has a long upper shadow. Although the bulls pushed price strongly upwards they could not hold it there, so the bears pushed it back down. Three upper shadows in a row have lengthened, so each day the bears had a greater impact. This indicates it is likely tomorrow’s candlestick may be red.

Price broke below the cyan trend line and has come back up for a possible throwback. When price behaves like this a perfect opportunity to join the trend appears, often at a good price.

ADX is flat to rising. It is indicating there may be a downwards trend. The last three days of upwards movement has flattened ADX. If the ADX line turns back upwards, then a downwards trend would again be indicated.

ATR mostly agrees as it is rising overall. This indicates the market should be trending.

The last three days have resolved RSI being oversold. There is again plenty of room for the market to fall. If price falls through the next two horizontal lines of support at 6,040 and 5,877, then the next line of support is at 5,768.

This analysis is published about 10:43 p.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th December, 2015

I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: FTSE may have today begun the middle of a third wave down. Both wave counts have a target for this downwards fall to end at 5,787.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

FIRST WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this first wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The Elliott channel is not working perfectly, but it may still show where price may find some resistance along the way down.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 6,487.89 within minor wave 5.

At 5,787 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Price is finding support as expected at the lower cyan trend line. A small bounce up may be seen from here. If price breaks below this line, expect downwards momentum to increase. Look for upwards corrections to find resistance at the upper black trend line.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The next wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 6,487.89 within intermediate wave (3). This channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of that channel. The channel is not working perfectly but may continue to show were upwards movement may find some resistance.

If a third wave down is underway, then it should have the power to break below the lower edge of this base channel. If that happens, this wave count would be strongly preferred over the first wave count. A third wave would be confirmed.

The short term target is the same. At 5,787 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

The downwards day of 9th December showed strong volume. There is some support for this fall in price.

Price is finding support at the cyan trend line. This may initiate a small bounce. If price breaks below the cyan trend line, that would be a reasonably bearish indicator. It may then throwback to that line. When price behaves like that it offers a perfect opportunity to join a trend at a good price.

The next line of support is the next horizontal trend line.

RSI is neutral. There is plenty of room for the market to rise or fall.

ADX is rising but still below 15. If it reaches above 15, a new downwards trend would be indicated. ATR is flat to slightly increasing, not indicating a new trend yet.

If there is a new trend, then Stochastics may remain extreme for some time. Patience is advised. A new trend may be indicated in another day or two.

This analysis is published about 03:13 a.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th December, 2015

I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: FTSE may have today begun the middle of a third wave down. Both wave counts have a target for this downwards fall to end at 5,787.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

FIRST WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this first wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The Elliott channel is not working perfectly, but it may still show where price may find some resistance along the way down.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 6,487.89 within minor wave 5.

Minute wave ii is very likely to be over. There is almost no room left for it to move into and today’s strong downwards day looks like the start of a new impulse. At 5,787 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Along the way down, FTSE may find some support for a small bounce at the cyan trend line.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The next wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 6,487.89 within intermediate wave (3). This channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of that channel. The channel is not working perfectly but may continue to show were upwards movement may find some resistance.

If a third wave down is underway, then it should have the power to break below the lower edge of this base channel. If that happens, this wave count would be strongly preferred over the first wave count. A third wave would be confirmed.

The short term target is the same. At 5,787 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

A strong downwards day comes on some increase in volume. There was some support for this fall in price.

Price has closed just below the next horizontal trend line, but it is not completely clear exactly where this line should be. Price may yet find some support about here for a small bounce.

RSI is neutral. There is plenty of room for the market to rise or fall.

ADX is flat and below 15. No trend is indicated. ADX does tend to be a lagging indicator. ATR mostly agrees; it has been declining. For the last two days ATR has turned upwards. This may indicate the early stages of a new trend and should be watched closely.

Price found resistance at the upper horizontal trend line while Stochastics was overbought. Price has turned downwards after finding resistance, so now should be expected to continue overall to move lower until it finds support and Stochastics is oversold at the same time. At this stage, Stochastics is only just beginning to turn down. There is a long way for price to fall before Stochastics reaches oversold.

This analysis is published about 01:39 a.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th November, 2015

I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: So far I have not been able to find other bull alternatives which fit. Of all the markets I currently analyse, FTSE is the clearest bear. I have two wave counts for FTSE. Both see the all time high as a trend change at cycle degree (the degree may be wrong; it may be super cycle degree).

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

FIRST WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this first wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The channel is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. In this instance minor wave 5 may find support at the lower edge. Along the way down, upwards corrections against the trend should find resistance at the upper edge. If this wave count is wrong, the first indication would be a breach of the upper edge of the channel.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 6,487.89 within minor wave 5.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The next wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 6,487.89 within intermediate wave (3). Again, if this wave count is wrong, first indication would come with a breach of the upper edge of the black channel. This channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of that channel.

If a third wave down is underway, then it should have the power to break below the lower edge of this base channel. If that happens, this wave count would be strongly preferred over the first wave count. A third wave would be confirmed.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

Price has essentially been moving sideways since the low of 24th August. During this time, the downwards day of 18th September has strongest volume which indicates a breakout from this sideways move is more likely to be downwards than upwards.

Overall, ADX is pointing lower. The consolidation is maturing, the trend should resume soon, but for now the breakout has not yet happened.

A new low below the low of 24th August and an increase in volume would add confidence that a downwards breakout is underway.

Prior to that, a break below either the lowest red horizontal trend line or the lower cyan sloping trend line would indicate a breakout if it comes on a downwards day with higher volume.

Likewise, a break above the upper horizontal line of resistance on higher volume would indicate an upwards breakout.

Overall for the last week, ATR is low and flat and should be expected to increase when price breaks out and begins to trend again.

This analysis is published about 04:33 a.m. EST.