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Last analysis expected that the S&P was now in a primary degree pullback to continue lower. To end the short trading week, Thursday saw price move lower as expected.

Summary: A new target is calculated at two degrees for this pullback to end: 2,299 – 2,297. It is possible it could end in 4 more sessions. If not, then it may end in 24 more sessions.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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The degree of labelling within primary wave 3 is here moved up. It is possible that primary wave 3 may be over.

Primary wave 4 may continue lower.

To exhibit alternation with primary wave 2, primary wave 4 may be most likely a single or multiple zigzag. It may also be a triangle.

Primary wave 2 was a flat correction lasting 47 days (not a Fibonacci number). Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a double zigzag. It may total a Fibonacci 34 or 55 sessions. If it totals a Fibonacci 34 sessions, it may end next Friday.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 2,111.05.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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Within double zigzags, the X wave is almost always brief and shallow. There is no rule stating a maximum for X waves, but they should not make a new price extreme beyond the start of the first zigzag in the double.

X waves within combinations may make new price extremes (they may be equivalent to B waves within expanded flats), but in this instance primary wave 4 would be unlikely to be a combination as it would exhibit poor alternation with the flat correction of primary wave 2.

For this wave count intermediate wave (X) may now be complete.

If a new high above 2,400.98 is seen, then this wave count would be discarded.

The correction for primary wave 4 should be a multi week pullback, and it may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 2,111.05.

A new target is calculated for primary wave 4 to end based upon primary and intermediate degrees. This target would see primary wave 4 end just short of the fourth wave of one lesser degree price territory, that of intermediate wave (4) which has its range from 2,277.53 to 2,233.62. If the target at 2,299 – 2,297 is wrong, then it may not be low enough.


S&P 500 hourly 2017
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The second zigzag in the double is labelled intermediate wave (Y) and minor waves A and B may be complete within it.

Minor wave C may be underway, unfolding as an impulse; the structure looks incomplete. Within it the strongest portion may have passed on Thursday.

Minor wave C must complete as a five wave structure. It may find support about the lower edge of the Elliott channel.

When minuette wave (iii) is complete, then the following correction for minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 2,341.18.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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Cycle wave V is an incomplete structure. Within cycle wave V, primary wave 3 may be incomplete.

Within primary wave 3, intermediate wave (3) may be an incomplete impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3), if minor wave 4 continues, then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 2,277.53.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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This wave count expects the just completed correction is minor wave 4. Within minor wave 5, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 2,322.25.

Minor wave 4 is a little below the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Because it has now clearly breached an Elliott channel drawn using the first technique, the channel is now redrawn using Elliott’s second technique. There is good alternation between the very shallow combination of minor wave 2 and the deeper zigzag of minor wave 4.

A target for minor wave 5 is calculated.

The Elliott channel about minor wave 4 is drawn on the daily chart. The upper edge may be providing some resistance. Once price can break above this channel, then upwards momentum may build.

Minor wave 3 is shorter than minor wave 1. So that the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met, minor wave 5 is limited to no longer than equality in length with minor wave 3.


S&P 500 hourly 2017
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Minute wave ii for this wave count should be over at Thursday’s low, or very soon on Tuesday. There is almost no room left for it to move into.

Within minute wave ii, the second zigzag of minuette wave (y) does not have a good fit. The third wave of micro wave 3 does not look like an impulse. This wave count is forced at this stage. This reduces the probability of it further.



S&P 500 weekly 2017
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Although a strong downwards week has lighter volume, because this is a short week this should not be read as bullish.

The signal from On Balance Volume should be given weight; it supports the main Elliott wave count. In conjunction with MACD, this is overall a fairly bearish weekly chart.


S&P 500 daily 2017
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Thursday moved price strongly lower with a small decline in volume. Because this is the day before Good Friday this will not be read as bullish.

The close below prior support is bearish.

ADX is bearish. On Balance Volume is very bearish. MACD is bearish.

RSI indicates there is room for price to fall, as does Stochastics.

Overall, this chart supports the main Elliott wave count.


VIX daily 2017
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Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

Bearish divergence and bullish divergence spanning a few short days used to be a fairly reliable indicator of the next one or two days direction for price; normally, bearish divergence would be followed by one or two days of downwards movement and vice versa for bullish divergence.

However, what once worked does not necessarily have to continue to work. Markets and market conditions change. We have to be flexible and change with them.

Recent unusual, and sometimes very strong, single day divergence between price and inverted VIX is noted with arrows on the price chart. Members can see that this is not always proving useful in predicting the next direction for price.

Divergence will continue to be noted, particularly when it is strong, but at this time it will be given little weight in this analysis. If it proves to again begin to work fairly consistently, then it will again be given weight.

The mid term bullish divergence between inverted VIX and price is still being followed by downwards movement. It is not correctly predicting the next movement for price. It may disappear shortly.


AD Line daily 2017
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The rise in price has support from a rise in market breadth. Lowry’s measures of market breadth do not at this stage warn of an impending end to this bull market. They show an internally healthy bull market that should continue for at least 4-6 months.

There is new short term bullish divergence between price and the AD line from the low of the 5th of April to the 13th of April: price has made a new low, but the AD line has failed to make a corresponding new low. This is regular bullish divergence and supports the alternate Elliott wave count.


The DJIA, DJT, S&P500 and Nasdaq continue to make new all time highs. This confirms a bull market continues.

This analysis is published @ 04:27 a.m. EST on 15th April, 2017.