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Upwards movement was expected for the main Elliott wave count, but the confirmation point still has not been passed.

Summary: It is increasingly likely that the next wave up has begun. This would be confirmed with a new all time high. The target is 2,338 for the short term and 2,382 for a longer term trade. If price breaks below 2,257.02, then a deeper pullback would be expected to be underway to end at the purple trend line.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.



S&P 500 Weekly 2017
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Cycle wave V is an incomplete structure. Within cycle wave V, primary wave 3 may be relatively close to completion.

When primary wave 3 is complete, then the following correction for primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 2,111.05.

Primary wave 2 was a flat correction lasting 47 days (not a Fibonacci number). Primary wave 4 may be expected to most likely be a zigzag, but it may also be a triangle if its structure exhibits alternation. If it is a zigzag, it may be more brief than primary wave 2, so a Fibonacci 21 sessions may be the initial expectation. If it is a triangle, then it may be a Fibonacci 34 or 55 sessions.

Primary wave 3 at this stage though is incomplete and may continue to move price higher.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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It is possible that intermediate wave (4) is a complete combination: zigzag – X – flat. It would have been even in duration with intermediate wave (3), both lasting 26 days.

Intermediate wave (3) is shorter than intermediate wave (1). One of the core Elliott wave rules states a third wave may never be the shortest wave, so this limits intermediate wave (5) to no longer than equality in length with intermediate wave (3) at 2,450.76.

Within intermediate wave (5), no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 2,257.02. Leaving the invalidation point here allows for the possibility that minor wave 2 may be continuing further as a regular flat correction.

Intermediate wave (5) has so far lasted just eleven days. It may be expected to be shorter both in length and duration compared to intermediate wave (3). At this stage, an expectation of a Fibonacci 21 days total for intermediate wave (5) looks reasonable, so it may now continue for another ten days or sessions.

The proportion here between intermediate waves (2) and (4) is acceptable. There is alternation. Both are labelled W-X-Y, but double zigzags are quite different structures to double combinations.


S&P 500 hourly 2017
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Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. At this stage, it is not possible to eliminate either option.

Within intermediate wave (5), minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete.

Within minor wave 3, the degree of labelling has today been moved down one degree. Only minute wave i may be close to completion. When it is complete, then another correction for minute wave ii should unfold and that may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 2,267.21.

A new high above 2,300.99 would confirm this wave count and invalidate any alternate. At that stage, reasonable confidence in targets may be had.

The target for minor wave 3 assumes the most likely Fibonacci ratio for it to minor wave 1.

If price moves below 2,257.02, this main wave count would be invalidated and the alternate below would be confirmed.



S&P 500 Daily 2017
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It remains possible that intermediate wave (4) is an incomplete expanded flat correction.

So far intermediate wave (4) may have lasted 37 sessions.

No target is given for minor wave C downwards because a target calculated using the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 to minor wave A results in price falling short of the purple trend line. Minor wave C may end only when price comes down to touch the trend line again.

Minor wave B is now a 1.53 length to minor wave A. This is longer than the normal length of up to 1.38 but within the allowable convention of 2. The length of minor wave B has reduced the probability of this wave count.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,193.81. It should find very strong support at the purple trend line and stop there.


S&P 500 Hourly 2017
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Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. At this stage, it may be an impulse.

An impulse downwards may have been complete for minute wave i. Upwards movement to follow it may be a complete zigzag for minute wave ii.

If minute wave ii continues higher, it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 2,300.99.

The depth of this second wave correction is valid, but it is slightly unusual. This has reduced the probability of this alternate wave count a little at the end of last week.



S&P 500 Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

I will publish alternate ideas from time to time in response to members queries or concerns. This alternate idea is new.

It does look suspiciously like an ending contracting diagonal may be underway and very close to completion.

Current upwards movement (which began on the 4th of November, 2016) must be a fifth wave for it to be an ending diagonal. That means that primary waves 1 through to 4 may be complete.

The only way for this to work and meet all Elliott wave rules is to see primary waves 1 and 2 over very quickly. This makes primary wave 3 longer than primary wave 1, so that the core rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met.

The ending diagonal is seen in more detail below.


S&P 500 Daily 2017
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Ending contracting diagonals must have subwaves that all subdivide as zigzags. They normally end with a small overshoot of the 1-3 trend line.

If price makes a new all time high and slightly overshoots this line and then quickly reverses, then this wave count would be possible.

This wave count has some support from long term classic analysis at the monthly chart level, but it is not supported by Lowry’s analysis.

This wave count has a very low probability. It requires confidence below 2,193.81.



S&P 500 weekly 2017
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Overall, for five weeks in a row now, price has moved overall higher and volume is still increasing. The longer term picture at this weekly chart level looks like this market is in a reasonably healthy bull trend.

The long lower wick on this weekly candlestick is bullish. This week saw a further increase in volume, also bullish.

On Balance Volume has given an important bullish signal here with a break above the purple line. This line has a shallow slope and has been tested three times prior. This is a reasonable bullish signal.

RSI is not overbought. There is room for price to rise. There is no short or mid term divergence with price and RSI to indicate weakness.

ADX is above 15 and rising indicating a trend. The +DX line is above the -DX line; the trend is up. It is not yet anywhere near extreme. There is plenty of room for this trend to continue.

Overall, the picture on this weekly chart is very bullish. That does not mean the alternate Elliott wave count cannot be correct; it only means the probability of the alternate is lower than the main wave count.


S&P 500 daily 2017
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Although the session closed red, price moved higher today with a higher high and a higher low and the balance of volume was upwards. An increase in volume for an upwards day today supports the main Elliott wave count.

ADX still indicates an upwards trend in the early stages. ATR disagrees as it is declining.

The purple resistance line on On Balance Volume has again been slightly adjusted today. OBV bounced up from here giving a weak bullish signal today. This supports the main Elliott wave count, but only slightly.

RSI is not overbought and there is no short term divergence between the last two highs and price to indicate near term weakness.

Stochastics is again entering overbought, but this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market.

MACD remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands remain very tightly contracted. Volatility will return to the market again.

Price has been finding current resistance about 2,300 and support about 2,255. For confidence in the main Elliott wave count, price needs to break above 2,300 on an upwards day with an increase in volume.


VIX daily 2017
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There are a few instances of multi day divergence between price and inverted VIX noted here. Bearish divergence is blue. Bullish divergence is yellow. It appears so far that divergence between inverted VIX and price is mostly working to indicate short term movements spanning one or two days. While this seems to be working more often than not, it is not always working. As with everything in technical analysis, there is nothing that is certain. This is an exercise in probability.

Price made a very slight new high above the prior high two days ago, but inverted VIX has failed to make a corresponding high. This is regular bearish divergence and indicates weakness in upwards movement. The divergence is slight though because the new high for price was by only 1.09 points. This divergence today very slightly supports the first alternate Elliott wave count.


AD Line daily 2017
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Some bearish divergence noted two days ago between price and the AD line has been followed by one red daily candlestick. It may be resolved here.


The DJIA, DJT, S&P500 and Nasdaq have made new all time highs in December of 2016. This confirms a bull market continues.

This analysis is published @ 10:07 p.m. EST.