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Upwards movement to a short term target at 2,139.50 was expected.

Upwards movement did unfold, but reached 7.37 points above the target.

Summary: Volume does not support this upwards movement, and there is some regular bearish divergence between price and the AD line today. While the main wave count is preferred, it is not yet finally confirmed. A new high above 2,154.79 would confirm the main wave count and see the alternate discarded. A break below the lilac trend would be concerning for the main wave count, and a new low below 2,083.79 would increase the probability of the alternate. There is enough suspicion about this upwards movement today to warn members to be very nimble and flexible in the next few days, particularly tomorrow. Look for a downwards correction to find support at the lilac trend line about 2,123.

Last monthly chart for the main wave count is here.

Last weekly chart is here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 now looks to be complete as a double zigzag. Within primary wave 2: intermediate wave (W) was a very shallow zigzag lasting a Fibonacci 13 sessions; intermediate wave (X) fits perfectly as a triangle lasting 20 sessions, just one short of a Fibonacci 21; and intermediate wave (Y) also lasting 20 sessions deepens the correction achieving the purpose of a second zigzag in a double.

Primary wave 2 looks like it has ended at support about the lower edge of the maroon channel about primary wave 1, and at the 200 day moving average.

With upwards movement slicing cleanly through the lilac trend line, this behaviour looks to be more typical of an upwards trend. At this stage, corrections within primary wave 3 may be expected to turn down to test support at this trend line.

At 2,500 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I.

At 2,467 primary wave 3 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. This is the ratio used in this instance because it fits with the higher target at 2,500.

Primary wave 3 may show some strength compared to primary wave 1, but it does not have to. This wave count sees price in a final fifth wave at cycle degree, within a larger fifth wave at Super Cycle degree. The upcoming trend change may be at Grand Super Cycle degree, a once in generations trend change. This final fifth should be expected to exhibit great internal weakness; this market may appear broken. That would be typical behaviour for a final fifth wave of this magnitude.

HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A five wave structure upwards may be complete. This may be intermediate wave (1), or the degree of labelling within this upwards movement may need to be moved down one degree to minor.

The invalidation point is at the same place no matter what degree of labelling is used. Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 2,083.79.

Fibonacci ratios within intermediate wave (1) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1, and minor wave 5 is 1.59 points short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Intermediate wave (2) may be relatively shallow if it finds support about the lilac trend line. It would be typical behaviour of price to turn down to test support after breaking through this line.

If price does find support at the lilac trend line, then it may offer an opportunity to join an upwards trend. However, it is essential that stops are used. The risk is that the alternate wave count may still be correct, so this risk must be accepted.

A new low below 2,083.79 would invalidate this main wave count at the hourly chart level. It would also substantially reduce probability of this wave count at the daily chart level. While it would be possible that primary wave 2 could be continuing lower, the structure would not have as good a fit and would look odd.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

What if this downwards movement is the start of something even bigger?

This wave count expects that a new bear market to span several years and take price substantially below 666.76 has begun. For such a huge call it absolutely requires price confirmation below 1,810.10.

If a new bear market has begun, then the degree of labelling within the last impulse upwards is simply moved up one degree.

Downwards movement from the all time high may be a series of overlapping first and second waves. What looks like an obvious triangle must be ignored for this wave count. This is problematic, and it reduces the probability of this wave count. But this is a viable wave count.

The dark blue channel is a base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. Minor wave 3 should have the power to break through the lower edge of the base channel. The middle of minor wave 3 would not yet have passed for this wave count because price remains within the base channel.

Another first and second wave correction may be completing at micro degree. There may now be six overlapping first and second waves. This wave count now expects to see an imminent explosion to the downside.

At the hourly chart level, micro wave 2 is still incomplete and should move higher. It should find very strong resistance at the upper edge of the dark blue base channel. Any breach of the upper edge of this channel would substantially reduce the probability of this wave count.

Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1 above 2,154.79.

A new low below 2,083.79 would increase the probability of this alternate wave count.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A strong downwards week breaking and closing well below the lilac trend line is a strong bearish signal. After a trend line breach, it would be typical to see price turn upwards and test resistance at the line.

There is strong support for price here from the 40 week (200 day) moving average. There is strong support for On Balance Volume here by both yellow lines. This suggests price may bounce early next week.

How high the bounce goes is going to tell us which Elliott wave count is correct. From a classic technical analysis point of view a breach back above the lilac line would be very bullish. If that happens, then new all time highs may be expected. But if the lilac line remains intact and provides strong resistance, then the possibility of a bear market would increase.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Three green daily candlesticks in a row all come with declining volume. The rise in price is not well supported by volume, so it is suspicious. This supports the alternate Elliott wave count over the main count. Members are warned that the alternate wave count does remain valid despite having a lower probability. Beware of the implications of this tomorrow.

Next resistance is about 2,155.

ADX does not yet indicate a trend nor a trend change. The -DX line remains above the +DX line.

ATR indicates a possible new trend as it is increasing as price moves higher. However, Bollinger Bands slightly contracted today. So there is some doubt with two of these three indicators not indicting an upwards trend. If there is an upwards trend, this is a very early stage.

RSI and Stochastics are both back close to neutral. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

VIX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There are a few instances of multi day divergence between price and inverted VIX noted here. Bearish divergence is blue. Bullish divergence is yellow. It appears so far that divergence between inverted VIX and price is again working to indicate short term movements spanning one or two days.

While price moved higher today, VIX is unchanged. This is not enough to say there is divergence, but this is not normal behaviour. An upwards trend should come with a decline in volatility for it to be healthy and sustainable. That this movement does not adds some suspicion.

BREADTH – AD LINE

AD Line daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Short term bullish and bearish divergence is again working between price and the AD line to show the direction for the following one or two days.

There is short – mid term regular bearish divergence today between price and the AD line: price has made a higher high above the high for the 31st of October, but the AD line has made a lower high. This rise is not supported by a corresponding increase in market breadth while bulls have pushed price higher for three days, so it is suspicious.

BREADTH – MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR

AD Line daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The McClellan Oscillator is now extreme (below 60). On its own this is not an indicator of a low, but it is a warning that this market is oversold. The McClellan Oscillator today is at -73.44.

On the 21st August, 2015, the McClellan Oscillator reached a similar point of -71.56. Price found a low the next session, 104 points below the closing price of the 21st August. This very extreme reading for the 24th August would have been a strong indicator of a low in place.

On the 11th December, 2015, the McClellan Oscillator reached -80.82. It moved lower the next session to -92.65 and price moved 19 points lower. The extreme reading of 11th December might possibly have led to an expectation of a bigger bounce than the one that occurred, and might have misled analysis into missing the strong fall from 29th December to 20th of January.

The next most recent occasion where this oscillator was extreme was the 8th January, 2016. It reached -66.25 on that date. The low was not found for seven sessions though, on the 20th January 2016, almost 110 points below the closing price of the 8th January. At the low of the 11th February, there was strong bullish divergence with price making new lows and the oscillator making substantially higher lows. This may have been a strong warning of a major low in place.

As an indicator of a low this is not it. It is a warning of extreme levels. The next thing to look for would be some divergence with price and this oscillator at lows. Divergence is not always seen at lows, but when it is seen it should be taken seriously. Any reading over 100 should also be taken very seriously.

This indicator will be approached with caution. It is one more piece of evidence to take into account.

Very weak bearish divergence noted yesterday did not result in any downwards movement. No new divergence is noted today.

This oscillator is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall.

While the AD line shows internal weakness, the McClellan oscillator does not. This supports the main Elliott wave count.

DOW THEORY

Major lows within the old bull market:

DJIA: 15,855.12 (15th October, 2014) – closed below on 25th August, 2015.

DJT: 7,700.49 (12th October, 2014) – closed below on 24th August, 2015.

S&P500: 1,821.61 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Nasdaq: 4,117.84 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Major highs within the bear market from November 2014:

DJIA: 17,977.85 (4th November, 2015) – closed above on 18th April, 2016.

DJT: 8,358.20 (20th November, 2015) – has not closed above this point yet.

S&P500: 2,116.48 (3rd November, 2015) – closed above this point on 8th June, 2016.

Nasdaq: 5,176.77 (2nd December, 2015) – closed above this point on 1st August, 2016.

Dow Theory Conclusion: Original Dow Theory still sees price in a bear market because the transportations have failed to confirm an end to that bear market. Modified Dow Theory (adding S&P and Nasdaq) has failed still to confirm an end to the old bull market, modified Dow Theory sees price still in a bull market.

It is noted today that while the S&P500, DJI and Nasdaq moved lower, DJT did not. This is not part of Dow Theory, but divergent behaviour between DJT and the other indices is a cause for concern regarding this downwards trend for the S&P500.

This analysis is published @ 08:34 p.m. EST.