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Upwards movement was expected, but this is not what happened.

The main Elliott wave count was invalidated below 2,111.05 and the alternate Elliott wave count was confirmed. At that stage, only the alternate wave count remained. The target for that wave count remains the same.

Summary: Downwards movement is expected to continue to about 2,089. If this target is wrong, it may be a little too high. A new very bearish wave count is provided as a “what if?” but it requires confirmation below 1,810.10.

Last monthly chart for the main wave count is here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

What if an impulse upwards is complete? The implications are important. If this is possible, then primary wave 1 within cycle wave V may be complete.

With downwards movement from the high of primary wave 1 now clearly a three and not a five, the possibility that cycle wave V and Super Cycle wave (V) are over has substantially reduced. This possibility would be eliminated if price can make a new all time high above 2,193.81.

If an impulse upwards is complete, then a second wave correction may be unfolding for primary wave 2.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 1,810.10.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (1) was an impulse lasting 47 days. Intermediate wave (2) was an expanded flat lasting 47 days. Intermediate wave (3) fits as an impulse lasting 16 days, and it is 2.04 points short of 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (4) may have been a running contracting triangle lasting 22 days and very shallow at only 0.0027 the depth of intermediate wave (3). At its end it effected only a 0.5 point retracement. There is perfect alternation between the deeper expanded flat of intermediate wave (2) and the very shallow triangle of intermediate wave (4). All subdivisions fit and the proportion is good.

Intermediate wave (5) would be very brief at only 18.29 points. Intermediate wave (5) is 1.43 points longer than 0.056 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At this stage, primary wave 2 now has a completed zigzag downwards that did not reach the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio. It is very unlikely for this wave count that primary wave 2 is over there; the correction is too brief and shallow. Upwards movement labelled intermediate wave (X) is so far less than 0.9 the length of the prior wave down labelled intermediate wave (W). The minimum for a flat correction has not been met. Primary wave 2 may continue lower as a double zigzag. A second zigzag in the double may be required to deepen the correction closer to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio.

Intermediate wave (W) lasted a Fibonacci 13 sessions. Intermediate wave (X) is a complete triangle. X waves may subdivide as any corrective structure (including multiples), and a triangle is possible here.

So far intermediate wave (Y) has lasted 17 sessions. If it exhibits a Fibonacci duration, then it may end in another three sessions to total a Fibonacci 21, or another 17 sessions to total a Fibonacci 34.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 1,810.10. A new low below this point would see the degree of labelling within cycle wave V moved up one degree. At that stage, a trend change at Super Cycle degree would be expected and a new bear market to span several years would be confirmed. A new alternate wave count below outlines this possibility.

HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

At 2,089 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A. This would take intermediate wave (Y) somewhat below the end of intermediate wave (W), achieving its purpose of deepening the correction.

This wave count has now been confirmed with a new low below 2,111.05.

Within minor wave C, there may now be a series of four overlapping first and second waves.

The strong downwards movement for Tuesday’s session fits as the middle of a third wave. Price may now move through a series of small fourth wave corrections and fifth waves down to complete the whole structure of minor wave C.

Micro wave 3 is just 0.83 points longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

Micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory above 2,119.36.

When micro waves 4 and 5 are complete, then the invalidation point must move up to the end of subminuette wave i at 2,127.97. Subminuette wave iv may not move up into subminuette wave i price territory.

Now that the lilac trend line has been clearly and strongly breached by downwards movement, it would be typical behaviour of price to see a bounce to test resistance at the underside of this line. If this is how price behaves, it would offer a good low risk high reward entry point for a short position.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count is new.

At this stage, a deeper pullback has been indicated by price for the main wave count. What if this downwards movement is the start of something even bigger?

This wave count expects that a new bear market to span several years and take price substantially below 666.76 has begun. For such a huge call it absolutely requires price confirmation below 1,810.10.

If a new bear market has begun, then the degree of labelling within the last impulse upwards is simply moved up one degree.

Downwards movement from the all time high may be a series of overlapping first and second waves. What looks like an obvious triangle must be ignored for this wave count. This is problematic, and it reduces the probability of this wave count. But this is a viable wave count.

The dark blue channel is a base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. Minor wave 3 should have the power to break through the lower edge of the base channel. The middle of minor wave 3 would not yet have passed for this wave count because price remains within the base channel.

Within the middle of the third wave, micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory above 2,119.36.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The lilac trend line has strong technical significance. Price broke through resistance, turned down to test support for the first time, and then moved up and away from this line. It was reasonable to conclude that a new all time high is a likely consequence of this typical behaviour.

Now price has come back down for a third test of the lilac trend line. A break below this line today is a highly significant bearish signal.

Last downwards week closes red and has support from volume. Increased volume last week is bearish.

At the weekly chart level, On Balance Volume may find support here at the horizontal yellow trend line, which may halt a further fall in price. This support line on OBV in conjunction with the lilac support line for price are strong indicators that downwards movement is very likely to be over.

RSI is still close to neutral. There is plenty of room for price to rise further.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price has moved for four days in a row overall downwards on increasing volume. The fall in price is supported by volume.

The breach of the lilac trend line (now drawn on this chart as well) is the strongest piece of technical analysis on all of the charts published today. This is a very strong bearish signal.

The warning given by On Balance Volume breaking below its support line was not given enough weight in last analysis. This too supports the main wave count.

The long lower wick on today’s red candlestick offers some bullishness. The bulls were able to rally at the end of the session to push price well up from the lows of the day. This is not a reversal signal, but it does indicate some caution about this downwards trend.

ADX is increasing, indicating a downwards trend is in place.

ATR shows some increase in range today, but one day of increase is not enough for confidence in a change.

Bollinger Bands show some widening today, but again one day is not enough for confidence that volatility has returned to this market for a reasonable period of time.

On Balance Volume remains very bearish.

RSI and Stochastics are not extreme. There is room for price to fall further. Next support is about 2,075.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

VIX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There are a few instances of multi day divergence between price and inverted VIX noted here. Bearish divergence is blue. Bullish divergence is yellow. It appears so far that divergence between inverted VIX and price is again working to indicate short term movements spanning one or two days.

Bullish divergence noted in yesterday’s analysis did not result in any upwards movement. While this divergence has been proven to be reasonably reliable over the last few months, it does not always work.

No new divergence is noted today.

BREADTH – AD LINE

AD Line daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Short term bullish and bearish divergence is again working between price and the AD line to show the direction for the following one or two days.

The single day divergence noted yesterday did not result in any upwards movement, so it did not work. No new short term divergence is noted today between price and the AD line.

DOW THEORY

Major lows within the old bull market:

DJIA: 15,855.12 (15th October, 2014) – closed below on 25th August, 2015.

DJT: 7,700.49 (12th October, 2014) – closed below on 24th August, 2015.

S&P500: 1,821.61 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Nasdaq: 4,117.84 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Major highs within the bear market from November 2014:

DJIA: 17,977.85 (4th November, 2015) – closed above on 18th April, 2016.

DJT: 8,358.20 (20th November, 2015) – has not closed above this point yet.

S&P500: 2,116.48 (3rd November, 2015) – closed above this point on 8th June, 2016.

Nasdaq: 5,176.77 (2nd December, 2015) – closed above this point on 1st August, 2016.

Dow Theory Conclusion: Original Dow Theory still sees price in a bear market because the transportations have failed to confirm an end to that bear market. Modified Dow Theory (adding S&P and Nasdaq) has failed still to confirm an end to the old bull market, modified Dow Theory sees price still in a bull market.

This analysis is published @ 08:33 p.m. EST.