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Upwards movement was expected for Friday’s session.

Price moved higher to complete a small green daily candlestick.

Summary: In the short term, price may move yet a little higher early next week. Upwards movement looks to be very weak though, so it may end sooner rather than later. If it continues, it may be with a very small range and light volume. If it touches the lilac trend line, then it is highly likely to stop there. Look out for surprises to the downside, the next wave down may be very strong.

Last published monthly charts are here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The box is added to the weekly chart. Price has been range bound for months. A breakout will eventually happen. The S&P often forms slow rounding tops, and this looks like what is happening here at a monthly / weekly time frame.

Primary wave 1 is seen as complete as a leading expanding diagonal. Primary wave 2 would be expected to be complete very soon indeed.

Leading diagonals are not rare, but they are not very common either. Leading diagonals are more often contracting than expanding. This wave count does not rely on a rare structure, but leading expanding diagonals are not common structures either.

Leading diagonals require sub waves 2 and 4 to be zigzags. Sub waves 1, 3 and 5 are most commonly zigzags but sometimes may appear to be impulses. In this case all subdivisions fit perfectly as zigzags and look like threes on the weekly and daily charts. There are no truncations and no rare structures in this wave count.

The fourth wave must overlap first wave price territory within a diagonal. It may not move beyond the end of the second wave.

Leading diagonals in first wave positions are often followed by very deep second wave corrections. Primary wave 2 would be the most common structure for a second wave, a zigzag, and fits the description of very deep. It may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 2,134.72.

So far it looks like price is finding resistance at the lilac trend line. Price has not managed to break above it. If price continues higher next week, then look for upwards movement to end again if it comes up to the lilac trend line. This line may be a better guide for when and where upwards movement may end than any target which could be calculated.

At the end of this week, all three ideas at the daily chart level will be published in the order I prefer them. Members may make their own judgements as to which daily wave count is more likely.

MAIN DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be an almost complete zigzag.

Intermediate wave (B) may have been over at the last low as a regular flat correction. Minor wave B within it is a 1.02 length of minor wave A, shorter than the 1.05 requirement for an expanded flat but longer than the minimum requirement of 0.9. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C; minor wave C is shorter than 1.618 the length of minor wave A and was not truncated.

Intermediate wave (C) would be likely to end at least slightly above the end of intermediate wave (A) at 2,111.05 to avoid a truncation.

This wave count has better proportions than the two alternates below. Intermediate wave (C) may be over in a few days. This is more acceptable for a C wave within a zigzag than it would be for a second wave within a new trend. Overall, primary wave 2 would have lasted months as a primary degree wave should. This proportion looks about right. If intermediate wave (C) ends in one more day it may total a Fibonacci five days.

The cyan line has been overshot a few times. It continues to provide some resistance and then support after price breaks above it. The lilac line has been tested only twice, last time at the high of 8th of June. If price comes up to it again, then it should be expected to offer very strong resistance, and that should be where upwards movement ends if a bear market is intact. It will be my personal trading strategy to open a short position if price touches that trend line again, risking my maximum 5% of equity.

When the end of primary wave 2 is known, then a target may be calculated for primary wave 3 down. That cannot be done yet. The expectation would be for primary wave 3 to be either 535 or 850 point in length, with the longer length more likely as primary wave 2 is very deep.

HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 hourly bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Upwards movement no longer fits within the small cyan trend line as it was drawn on the last hourly chart. If sideways / downwards movement at the end of Friday’s session was a fourth wave, then that may explain the channel breach. Fourth waves are not always nicely contained within channels, and the S&P does not always respect channels (particularly narrow steep ones on low time frames). The channel is redrawn using Elliott’s second technique.

Minor wave 3 may have ended at the high for Friday. Here, it is just 0.02 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1. The labelling within intermediate wave (C) was determined on the five minute chart. The middle of minor wave 3 has the strongest momentum.

This wave count expects one final upwards wave to complete the structure. At 2,121 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1 (equality with minor wave 1 would breach the invalidation point). This target may be too high though; it would expect a slight overshoot of the lilac trend line which is unlikely.

Intermediate wave (C) is still very likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of intermediate wave (A) at 2,111.05 to avoid a truncation. As soon as upwards movement breaks this point, then look out for a trend change.

ALTERNATE DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This was the main wave count up to very recently. It is now relegated to a less likely alternate and will remain possible while price remains below 2,113.32. It is possible that upwards movement could end above 2,111.05 and below 2,113.32 which would leave both wave counts valid.

If primary wave 2 was over earlier on 8th of June, then primary wave 3 has begun. At 1,595 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. At 1,271 it would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave 1.

Within primary wave 3, now intermediate wave (1) would most likely be incomplete. The middle of it would be extending, now with two overlapping first and second waves.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 2,113.32.

The problem today is still the size and depth of minute wave ii. Minute wave ii looks too large and too deep for a lower degree correction.

SECOND ALTERNATE DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may have ended on 23rd of June. Primary wave 3 may have begun there.

Within primary wave 3, intermediate waves (1) and now (2) may be complete.

If upwards movement does not move above 2,111.05, this may be the preferred wave count.

If price begins to move strongly lower when markets open for the new week, then a target would be 1,790 for intermediate wave (3) to reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This is the appropriate ratio to calculate the target in this instance because intermediate wave (2) is 0.96 of intermediate wave (1).

This wave count does not look right with the channel about primary wave 2. If that channel is correctly drawn, then intermediate wave (2) would most likely have ended when price came up to touch the lower edge for a typical throwback after a breach.

At 1,588 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. At 1,263 primary wave 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave 1. The lower target is more likely because primary wave 2 was very deep.

Intermediate wave (2) for this alternate wave count should be over here. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 2,113.32.

BULL ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave IV is seen as a complete flat correction. Within cycle wave IV, primary wave C is still seen as a five wave impulse.

Intermediate wave (3) has a strong three wave look to it on the weekly and daily charts. For the S&P, a large wave like this one at intermediate degree should look like an impulse at higher time frames. The three wave look substantially reduces the probability of this wave count. Subdivisions have been checked on the hourly chart, which will fit.

Cycle wave II was a shallow 0.41 zigzag lasting three months. Cycle wave IV may be a complete shallow 0.19 regular flat correction, exhibiting some alternation with cycle wave II and lasting nine months. Cycle wave IV would be grossly disproportionate to cycle wave II, and would have to move substantially out of a trend channel on the monthly chart, for it to continue further sideways as a double flat, triangle or combination. For this reason, although it is possible, it looks less likely that cycle wave IV would continue further. It should be over at the low as labelled.

At 2,500 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I.

Price has now broken a little above the bear market trend line. This line is drawn from the all time high at 2,134.72 to the swing high labelled primary wave B at 2,116.48 on November 2015. This line is drawn using the approach outlined by Magee in the classic “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends”. To use it correctly we should assume that a bear market remains intact until this line is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value. Now that the line is breached, the price point at which it is breached is calculated about 2,093.58. 3% of market value above this line would be 2,156.38, which would be above the all time high and the confirmation point.

This wave count requires price confirmation with a new all time high above 2,134.72.

While price has not made a new high, while it remains below the final trend line (lilac) and while technical indicators point to weakness in upwards movement, this very bullish wave count comes with a strong caveat. I still do not have confidence in it. It is produced as an alternate, because all possibilities must be considered. Price managed to keep making new highs for years on light and declining volume, so it is possible that this pattern may continue to new all time highs for cycle wave V.

The invalidation point will remain on the weekly chart at 1,370.58. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory.

This invalidation point allows for the possibility that cycle wave IV may not be complete and may continue sideways for another one to two years as a double flat or double combination. Because both double flats and double combinations are both sideways movements, a new low substantially below the end of primary wave C at 1,810.10 should see this wave count discarded on the basis of a very low probability long before price makes a new low below 1,370.58.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (2) may be over, so intermediate wave (3) upwards may be underway. Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,991.68.

Intermediate wave (2) now has better proportion in terms of duration to intermediate wave (1), but it is still more shallow than the first second wave within a new bull trend normally is. Here, it would be only 0.40 the length of intermediate wave (1).

This wave count absolutely requires a new all time high before any confidence may be had in it.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

S&P 500 monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The S&P has been range bound for a remarkably long period of time, illustrated by the large cyan box. Price will break out of the box eventually and volume may offer a clue as to which direction that may be in. During this sideways range, it is the two downwards months of January and February 2016 which have strongest volume. This indicates a downwards breakout is more likely than upwards.

During this range bound movement, price came on declining volume (look at a longer time frame to see how clear this is from July 2009 to May 2015) as price moved up to the all time high. The rise in price was not supported by volume, so it was suspicious.

During this range bound movement, each multi month instance of upwards movement comes on declining volume. All but one multi month instance of downwards movement came with increasing volume. The volume profile at the monthly chart level is bearish.

The month of June is now over and saw some increase in volume. This includes an options expiry date though, so to properly analyse volume for the month of June look inside the month at the daily time frame.

June’s monthly candlestick completes a long legged candlestick with a small real body. The body is a little too big for this to be considered a doji (this is entirely a subjective opinion though; members are free to disagree with my judgement here), and the upper wick is too long for it to be considered a hanging man. The long lower wick is bullish as is the body colour of green. Coming after two smaller real bodies, the significance of this very small (almost doji) real body is lessened. It does not look like a reversal pattern; it looks more bullish than bearish. However, it would require confirmation before it could be viewed as a strong bullish signal, because it comes at an extremely important point close to the all time high.

On Balance Volume broke above the purple trend line in June. This is also a bullish signal. However, the last strong bearish signal from OBV with a break below the yellow line was not as significant as first thought. OBV moved back above that line and now has broken above the purple line. This break should be viewed as a weak bullish signal.

There is now hidden bearish divergence between OBV and price from the all time high. OBV has made a higher high but price has not. This indicates weakness in price.

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This week closes with a very strong Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, but there are two problems with this. This candlestick pattern comes within a trading range. Candlestick patterns during consolidations are not reliable reversal signals. It could be interpreted as bullish, but for more confidence that it is bullish a breakout above resistance (orange lines) on a day with increased volume should be seen.

The long lower wick of this candlestick is also bullish.

Price is back well within the range delineated by orange lines, with resistance about 2,107 and support about 2,040. To see what volume is doing during this period, because it includes one options expiry date and the strong volume of two downwards days within the last week, volume analysis would be better done at the daily chart level.

On Balance Volume is still constrained below the purple line and above the yellow line. A breakout by OBV may precede a breakout by price.

There is no divergence between price and RSI at this time to indicate weakness either way.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume for Friday’s session is very light. Volume for the last four upwards days is lighter than the prior two downwards days, and at the end of the week volume is declining. The volume profile continues to be bearish.

During the consolidation which began back in about March, it is three downwards days which have strongest volume. This suggests a downwards breakout is more likely than upwards.

The break below support on high volume looked like a downwards breakout, but it was false as price is now back within the consolidation zone.

The small real body and relatively long upper shadow on Friday’s candlestick indicates the bulls are tiring.

Price may be expected to find strong resistance about 2,120.

ADX is declining indicating the market is not trending. The -DX line has crossed below the +DX line indicating a possible trend change from down to up. ATR is in agreement at the end of the week; it too is beginning to decline. It is indicative that again as price rises ATR begins to decline; this is not normal of a trending market.

On Balance Volume has come up to touch the first purple line. This may offer some resistance, but this line has been breached before only for OBV to then return back below it. A break above this line would be only a weak bullish signal. A break above the upper purple line would be a strong bullish signal. A break below the lower yellow line would be a strong bearish signal.

RSI is close to neutral and exhibits no divergence with price at the end of the week to indicate weakness in either direction. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall.

Stochastics is entering overbought and does exhibit divergence with price. Stochastics made a new high above the prior swing high of 23rd of June, but price did not. This indicates weakness in price.

There is divergence between price and MACD and RSI between the highs of 20th of April and 8th of June. This indicates weakness in upwards movement. So far price has made lower lows and lower highs since the high of 8th of June.

Overall, there is again more bullishness at the end of this week. But, on balance, the picture is still bearish, particularly volume.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX MONTHLY CHART

VIX Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Several instances of large divergence between price and VIX (inverted) are noted here. Blue is bearish divergence and yellow is bullish divergence (rather than red and green, for our colour blind members).

Volatility declines as inverted VIX rises, which is normal for a bull market. Volatility increases as inverted VIX declines, which is normal for a bear market. Each time there is strong multi month divergence between price and VIX, it was followed by a strong movement from price: bearish divergence was followed by a fall in price and bullish divergence was followed by a rise in price.

There is still current multi month divergence between price and VIX: from the high in April 2016 price has made new highs but VIX has failed so far to follow with new highs. This regular bearish divergence still indicates weakness in price.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX DAILY CHART

VIX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is an instance of longer term possible hidden bullish divergence noted here between price and inverted VIX with longer yellow lines. From the low of 24th February, volatility has strongly increased yet this has not yet translated into corresponding lows for price. This bullish divergence may now be resolved by some upwards movement from price over the last two days.

There is today a new instance of hidden bearish divergence between VIX (inverted) and price. As price moved higher over the last four days inverted VIX also moved higher, which indicates volatility has declined. This is normal and should be expected. What is not normal here though is the decline in volatility is stronger than where it was for 23rd June. This indicates weakness in upwards movement from price.

There was an earlier instance of short term hidden bearish divergence between VIX and price, shown here by short blue lines on both from 27th of May to 3rd of June. That was followed by some downwards movement, but it did not happen immediately. Price limped along upwards in a very small range for three days before turning. It is entirely possible that this may happen again. This current divergence indicates weakness and should be taken very seriously, but it cannot tell us that price must turn here.

While I would not give much weight to divergence between price and many oscillators, such as Stochastics, I will give weight to divergence between price and VIX. Analysis of the monthly chart for the last year and a half shows it to be fairly reliable.

BREADTH – ADVANCE DECLINE LINE

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

With the AD line increasing, this indicates the number of advancing stocks exceeds the number of declining stocks. This indicates that there is breadth to prior upwards movement.

Taking a look at the bigger picture, the AD line is making substantial new highs but price so far has not. While market breadth is increasing beyond the point it was at in May 2015, this has not translated (yet) into a corresponding rise in price. Price is weak. This is hidden bearish divergence (long blue lines).

There is divergence between price and the AD line indicated by short yellow lines. Price made new lows but the AD line failed to make corresponding new lows. This indicates some weakness to downwards movement from price. There is less breadth to downwards movement this time. This divergence is bullish and also supports the hourly Elliott wave count. Upwards movement over the last four days may be enough to resolve this bullish divergence.

The AD line has now made a new high above its prior high of 23rd of June yet price has not made a corresponding new high (short blue lines). This divergence now is bearish. It indicates that price is weak. It has persisted now for three days.

DOW THEORY

The last major lows within the bull market are noted below. Both the industrials and transportation indicies have closed below these price points on a daily closing basis; original Dow Theory has confirmed a bear market. By adding in the S&P500 and Nasdaq a modified Dow Theory has not confirmed a new bear market.

Within the new bear market, major highs are noted. For original Dow Theory to confirm the end of the current bear market and the start of a new bull market, the transportation index needs to confirm. It has not done so yet.

Major lows within the prior bull market:

DJIA: 15,855.12 (15th October, 2014) – closed below on 25th August, 2015.

DJT: 7,700.49 (12th October, 2014) – closed below on 24th August, 2015.

S&P500: 1,821.61 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Nasdaq: 4,117.84 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Major highs within the new bear market:

DJIA: 17,977.85 (4th November, 2015) – closed above on 18th April, 2016.

DJT: 8,358.20 (20th November, 2015) – has not closed above this point yet.

S&P500: 2,116.48 (3rd Nobember, 2015) – has now closed above this point on 8th June, 2016.

Nasdaq: 5,176.77 (2nd December, 2015) – has not closed above this point yet.

It is a reasonable conclusion that the indices are currently in a bear market. The trend remains the same until proven otherwise. Dow Theory is one of the oldest and simplest of all technical analysis methods. It is often accused of being late because it requires huge price movements to confirm a change from bull to bear. In this instance, it is interesting that so many analysts remain bullish while Dow Theory has confirmed a bear market. It is my personal opinion that Dow Theory should not be accused of being late as it seems to be ignored when it does not give the conclusion so many analysts want to see.

This analysis is published @ 07:30 p.m. EST on 2nd July, 2016.