Price moved sideways in a narrower range than the day before, but completed a red candlestick.
Summary: For the short term, a little upwards movement at least to about 2,119 is still expected. It may end in another one to three days. A new high above 2,132.82 would invalidate the first wave count and confirm the second. A new low below 2,063.52 would invalidate the second wave count and confirm the first. The first wave count expects the middle of a strong third wave down to begin this week, so if it is correct, then we should have clarification this week.
Changes to last analysis are bold.
To see a weekly chart and how to draw trend lines click here.
Note regarding data for 28th July session: I am still unable to get the Google / Yahoo data feed to provide that candlestick; it remains MIA. For today’s analysis, I am relying on the candlestick on daily charts published here.
FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
It is possible that the S&P has seen a primary degree (or for the bear count below a Super Cycle degree) trend change.
If primary wave 3 is over then primary wave 4 should begin.
Primary wave 2 was a relatively shallow 0.41 zigzag lasting 12 weeks. Primary wave 4 may be more shallow and is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. It may be longer lasting than primary wave 2 as these types of sideways corrective structures tend to be more time consuming than zigzags. Primary wave 4 is likely to end in the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree between 1,730 – 1,647. It may last about 13 or maybe even 21 weeks. So far it has completed its tenth week.
This wave count now has some confirmation at the daily chart level with a close more than 3% of market value below the long held bull market trend line.
Further confirmation would come with:
1. A new low below 2,044.02.
2. A new low below 2,022.07 to invalidate the second wave count.
3. A clear five down on the hourly chart.
4. A clear five down on the daily chart.
5. A new low below 1,820.66.
6. A break below the 50 week SMA on the weekly chart or the 200 day SMA on the daily chart.
As each condition is met the probability of a substantial trend change would increase.
At this stage, a trend change is looking somewhat likely so I’ll list points in its favour:
1. The long held bull market trend line, the strongest piece of technical analysis on ALL charts, has been breached now by a close more than 3% of market value.
2. There is quadruple negative divergence between price and MACD on the weekly chart.
3. There is double negative divergence between price and MACD on the daily chart.
4. There is persistent and strong negative divergence between price and RSI on the monthly chart. The last time this happened was October 2007 and we all know what happened after that…
5. A long held bull trend line on On Balance Volume going back to October 2014 has been breached, is no longer providing support, and is now providing resistance.
6. DJT has recently failed to confirm the continuation of a bull market. This does not indicate a bear market, but does indicate caution.
A target for minute wave iii is added now to the daily chart and explained below. Minute wave iii should show its subdivisions clearly on the daily chart so that when it is done it has a clear five wave impulse look to it. So far minuette wave (ii) shows up clearly. When it arrives minuette wave (iv) should also show up clearly. Minuette wave (iii) should show a strong increase in downwards momentum.
At the five minute chart level, the upwards wave labelled micro wave 1 has a perfect fit as an impulse, and the downwards wave labelled micro wave 2 looks like a three, a double zigzag. With a five up and a three down, this supports the idea that the trend in the short term is up.
At 2,119 subminuette wave c would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave a. Subminuette wave c must subdivide as a five wave structure, most likely an impulse.
Subminuette wave c may end now within another one to three days. It is highly likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of subminuette wave a at 2,114.24 to avoid a truncation.
A new low below 2,063.52 may not now happen this week, but it may happen next week. When minuette wave (ii) is a completed zigzag, then this wave count expects a very strong downwards movement to begin for a third wave of a third wave.
Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 2,132.82.
SECOND ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
The ending contracting diagonal may still be incomplete. Ending diagonals require all sub waves to subdivide as zigzags, and the fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory. It is Elliott wave convention to always draw the diagonal trend lines to indicate a diagonal structure is expected.
My labelling here of minute wave iv within the diagonal as a double zigzag relies upon the interpretation of “double and triple zigzags take the place of zigzags” (“Elliott Wave Principle” by Frost and Prechter, 10th edition, page 91) to be true for zigzags within diagonals. This wave down may also be labelled as a single zigzag, but that does not have as neat a fit as a double zigzag.
The diagonal trend lines are no longer clearly converging. This reduces the probability of this wave count.
If it moves any lower, then minute wave iv may not be longer than equality in length with minute wave ii at 2,022.07. If it is over here, then minute wave v up also has a limit and may not be longer than equality with minute wave iii at 2,197.84.
The best way to see where and when upwards movement may end is the upper diagonal i-iii trend line. It is very likely to be overshot. Upwards movement may find resistance at the long held bull market trend line.
Both wave counts expect upwards movement tomorrow and most likely also the day after. This second wave count expects a third wave up to unfold. At 2,169 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.
Along the way up, a new high above 2,132.82 would invalidate the first wave count and confirm this second wave count.
The channel drawn here is a base channel. Along the way up, this second wave count expects downwards corrections to find support at the lower edge of this channel. If this channel is clearly breached by downwards (not sideways) movement, then that would strongly favour the first wave count over this second wave count.
I am removing the final target for now. It no longer expects a reasonable overshoot of the upper pink i-iii diagonal trend line (seen on the daily chart). When there is more structure within minuette wave (c), then I will calculate the target again towards the end of this movement at subminuette wave degree.
BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
The subdivisions within cycle waves a-b-c are seen in absolutely exactly the same way as primary waves 1-2-3 for the main wave count.
In line with recent Grand Super Cycle wave analysis, I have moved the degree of labelling for the bear wave count all up one degree.
This bear wave count expects a Super Cycle wave (c) to unfold downwards for a few years, and if it is a C wave it may be devastating. It may end well below 666.79.
However, if this wave down is a Super Cycle wave (y), then it may be a time consuming repeat of the last big flat correction with two market crashes within it, equivalent to the DotCom crash and the recent Global Financial Crisis, and it may take another 8-9 years to unfold sideways.
Within the new bear market, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 2,134.72.
The second wave count above works in the same way for this bear wave count.
ADX is below 20 and flat. ADX indicates there is no clear trend and the market is consolidating. Recently rises in price are accompanied by ADX indicating no trend, and the last two falls in price were accompanied by ADX indicating the early stages of a trend (which was down) at least at the end. Overall it does look like a downwards trend may be developing, and there is at least no indication from ADX that an upwards trend may be still in place.
A range bound trading system may be better used than a trend following system. This would still expect some more downwards movement, to not end until price finds support at the lower two red horizontal trend lines and Stochastics is oversold at the same time.
As price turns down, On Balance Volume is beginning to break below its short green trend line, so another bearish indicator.
Along the way down, price may again find support about the 200 day SMA (green). If price breaks clearly below that line, then it would be a very bearish indicator; a bounce at least or an end to downwards movement should initially be expected there. If Stochastics reaches oversold while price finds support at the 200 day SMA, then it may be where downwards movement ends, but only as long as ADX continues to indicate no clear trend.
As price falls for the last three days, volume is now declining to flat. This fall in price is not supported by volume, indicating that these three red candlesticks are a small correction and not the current short term trend. This fits both Elliott wave counts.
A note on Dow Theory: for the bear wave count I would wait for Dow Theory to confirm a huge market crash. For that to be confirmed the following new lows are needed:
At this time DJT is closest, but none of these indices have made new major swing lows yet.
This analysis is published about 06:32 p.m. EST.
Not looking like a third wave up. Another extreme in optimistic sentiment with new VIX and UVXY lows. Main count looking more likely. Added UVXY calls at the lows.