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Last analysis expected that minute wave ii was over but not confirmed as the parallel channel containing it was not breached. The channel is now clearly breached and we have a clear five down on the hourly chart. I expect that a third wave down may have just begun for AAPL.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.

Because we have not seen a strong increase in downwards momentum yet I expect the middle of this intermediate wave (3) has not yet passed. I expect momentum to increase. As minor wave 3 and intermediate wave (3) get closer to completion I will use multiple wave degrees to calculate targets.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 457.10.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minute wave ii moved higher over the last week. There is now a very clear trend channel breach on the hourly chart, and also a clear five wave down structure following the high. This is confirmation that minute wave ii should be over and minute wave iii should be underway.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c) within minute wave ii.

Ratios within minuette wave (c) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.08 short of equality with submiuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave i of minuette wave (i) of minute wave iii downwards are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.37 longer than 0.382 the length of micro wave 3.

I would expect momentum to begin to increase over the next week.

At 324 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Within minute wave iii I expect minuette wave (i) is incomplete. Within minuette wave (i) subminuette wave i is complete and subminuette wave ii is incomplete. Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i at 434.87.