A very small range inside day leaves the Elliott wave count unchanged.
Summary: Minor wave 4 may continue for about two weeks or so and may continue to find support about 3,070. It may be a choppy overlapping consolidation. Thereafter, the upwards trend may resume. The next target is at 3,302 and then 3,336.
Three large pullbacks or consolidations during the next 1-2 years are expected: for minor wave 4, then intermediate (4), and then primary 4.
The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.
Monthly charts were last published here, with video here. There are two further alternate monthly charts here, with video here.
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS
The two weekly Elliott wave counts below will be labelled First and Second. They may be about of even probability. When the fifth wave currently unfolding on weekly charts may be complete, then these two wave counts will diverge on the severity of the expected following bear market. To see an illustration of this future divergence monthly charts should be viewed.
FIRST WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
The basic Elliott wave structure consists of a five wave structure up followed by a three wave structure down (for a bull market). This wave count sees the bull market beginning in March 2009 as an incomplete five wave impulse and now within the last fifth wave, which is labelled cycle wave V. This impulse is best viewed on monthly charts. The weekly chart focusses on the end of it.
Elliott wave is fractal. This fifth wave labelled cycle wave V may end a larger fifth wave labelled Super Cycle wave (V), which may end a larger first wave labelled Grand Super Cycle wave I.
The teal Elliott channel is drawn using Elliott’s first technique about the impulse of Super Cycle wave (V). Draw the first trend line from the end of cycle wave I (off to the left of the chart, the weekly candlestick beginning 30th November 2014) to the end of cycle wave III, then place a parallel copy on the end of cycle wave II. This channel perfectly shows where cycle wave IV ended at support. The strongest portion of cycle wave III, the end of primary wave 3, overshoots the upper edge of the channel. This is a typical look for a third wave and suggests the channel is drawn correctly and the way the impulse is counted is correct.
Within Super Cycle wave (V), cycle wave III is shorter than cycle wave I. A core Elliott wave rule states that a third wave may never be the shortest. For this rule to be met in this instance, cycle wave V may not be longer in length than cycle wave III. This limit is at 3,477.39.
Cycle wave V may subdivide either as an impulse or an ending diagonal. Impulses are much more common. An alternative wave count which considered an ending diagonal has been invalidated. While it is possible a diagonal may become an alternate wave count in coming weeks or months, at this stage the structure does not fit.
At this stage, cycle wave V may take another one to two or so years to complete.
The daily chart below will focus on movement from the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.
In historic analysis, two further monthly charts have been published that do not have a limit to upwards movement and are more bullish than this wave count. Members are encouraged to consider those possibilities (links below summary) alongside the wave counts presented on a daily and weekly basis. It is my judgement that the wave count above has the highest probability, so it shall be the only wave count published on a daily basis.
Within cycle wave V, primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Within primary wave 3, intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete. Within the middle of intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 2,855.96.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
All of primary wave 3, intermediate wave (3) and minor wave 3 may only subdivide as impulses.
Minor wave 3 is now complete. Minor wave 3 shows an increase in momentum beyond minor wave 1; MACD supports this wave count.
Minor wave 2 was a sharp deep pullback, so minor wave 4 may be expected to be a very shallow sideways consolidation to exhibit alternation. Minor wave 2 lasted 2 weeks, so minor wave 4 may be about the same duration to have good proportion.
Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 3,021.99.
Intermediate wave (3) must move far enough above the end of intermediate wave (1) to then allow intermediate wave (4) to unfold and remain above intermediate wave (1) price territory. While intermediate wave (3) has now moved beyond the end of intermediate wave (1), meeting a core Elliott wave rule, it still needs to continue higher to give room for intermediate wave (4).
The target for intermediate wave (3) fits with a target calculated for minor wave 3.
Draw an Elliott channel now about intermediate wave (3) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy on the end of minor wave 2. If it is time consuming enough, then minor wave 4 may find support about the lower edge of this blue channel (although it looks like it may end midway within the channel).
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Minor wave 2 was a deep sharp zigzag lasting ten sessions. Given the guideline of alternation, minor wave 4 would least likely subdivide as a zigzag and may more likely subdivide as one of either a triangle, combination or flat correction. Triangles and combinations particularly are usually longer lasting structures than zigzags, so minor wave 4 may last longer than ten sessions. So far it has lasted seven sessions.
Minor wave 4 would most likely be shallow.
Minor wave 4 is labelled to consider the possibility of an Elliott wave triangle unfolding sideways. Within the triangle, minute waves a and b may now be complete. It remains possible that minute wave b may move a little higher and may make a new high above the start of minute wave a at 3,154.26 as in a running triangle.
If minor wave 4 continues as a triangle or combination, then it may last about three to four weeks at this stage.
There are still multiple structural possibilities for minor wave 4 as it continues. It may still unfold as a combination or flat correction and exhibit alternation with the zigzag of minor wave 2. Labelling within minor wave 4 will still probably change as it continues.
It is unlikely that minor wave 4 was over at the last low. It would be too brief in comparison to minor wave 2 and would exhibit no alternation in structure.
SECOND WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This weekly chart is almost identical to the first weekly chart, with the sole exception being the degree of labelling.
This weekly chart moves the degree of labelling for the impulse beginning in March 2009 all down one degree. This difference is best viewed on monthly charts.
The impulse is still viewed as nearing an end; a fifth wave is still seen as needing to complete higher. This wave count labels it primary wave 5.
Primary wave 5 may be subdividing as either an impulse, in the same way that cycle wave V is seen for the first weekly chart.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
MONTHLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
There are three large consolidations noted on this chart, in shaded areas. After a breakout from a multi-month consolidation, it is reasonable to expect a multi month bullish move may result.
This chart very clearly exhibits rising price on declining volume has now persisted for several years. A decline in volume this month, in current market conditions, is not of concern.
On Balance Volume supports the Elliott wave count.
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It is very clear that the S&P is in an upwards trend and the bull market is continuing. Price does not move in straight lines; there will be pullbacks and consolidations along the way.
Last week completes a bullish candlestick, which suggests more upwards movement next week.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
There is an upwards trend in place. There will be corrections along the way.
The lack of strength off the low last week is suspicious. Upwards days off the lows did not complete an 80% up day nor two back to back 70% up days. This may be resolved by some sideways movement. After Monday’s small range inside day, this view is unchanged.
If price gaps up with support from volume to make new all time highs, then the small pullback may be considered complete.
BREADTH – AD LINE
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
Bear markets from the Great Depression and onwards have been preceded by an average minimum of 4 months divergence between price and the AD line with only two exceptions in 1946 and 1976. With the AD line making new all time highs last week, the end of this bull market and the start of a new bear market is very likely a minimum of 4 months away, which is mid March 2020.
In all bear markets in the last 90 years there is some positive correlation (0.6022) between the length of bearish divergence and the depth of the following bear market. No to little divergence is correlated with more shallow bear markets. Longer divergence is correlated with deeper bear markets.
If a bear market does develop here, it comes after no bearish divergence. It would therefore more likely be shallow.
All of small, mid and large caps have made new swing highs above the prior swing high on the 13th of September, but only large caps have made new all time highs. This upwards movement appears to be mostly driven by large caps, which is a feature of aged bull markets. This bull market at over 10 years duration certainly fits the definition of aged.
Last week price has moved lower with a lower low and a lower high, but the AD line has moved higher. This divergence is bullish.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.
On Friday price has moved higher but failed by a very small margin to make a new all time high. The AD line has moved higher to make a new all time high but only by a very small margin. This divergence is bullish, but it is weak.
On Monday a small range inside day closed red and the AD line declined. There is no new short-term divergence.
VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
The all time high for inverted VIX was on 30th October 2017. There is now over two years of bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX.
The rise in price is not coming with a normal corresponding decline in VIX; VIX remains elevated. This long-term divergence is bearish and may yet develop further as the bull market matures.
This divergence may be an early warning, a part of the process of a top developing that may take years. It may is clearly not useful in timing a trend change from bull to a fully fledged bear market.
Last week price and inverted VIX have both moved lower. There is no new short-term divergence.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
During Monday’s session both price and inverted VIX have moved lower. There is no new short-term divergence. However, inverted VIX is falling faster than price, which is bearish.
DOW THEORY
Dow Theory confirmed a bear market in December 2018. This does not necessarily mean a bear market at Grand Super Cycle degree though; Dow Theory makes no comment on Elliott wave counts. On the 25th of August 2015 Dow Theory also confirmed a bear market. The Elliott wave count sees that as part of cycle wave II. After Dow Theory confirmation of a bear market in August 2015, price went on to make new all time highs and the bull market continued.
DJIA: 23,344.52 – a close on the 19th of December at 23,284.97 confirms a bear market.
DJT: 9,806.79 – price has closed below this point on the 13th of December.
S&P500: 2,532.69 – a close on the 19th of December at 2,506.96 provides support to a bear market conclusion.
Nasdaq: 6,630.67 – a close on the 19th of December at 6,618.86 provides support to a bear market conclusion.
With all the indices having moved higher following a Dow Theory bear market confirmation, Dow Theory would confirm a bull market if the following highs are made:
DJIA: 26,951.81 – a close above this point has been made on the 3rd of July 2019.
DJT: 11,623.58 – to date DJT has failed to confirm an ongoing bull market.
S&P500: 2,940.91 – a close above this point was made on the 29th of April 2019.
Nasdaq: 8,133.30 – a close above this point was made on the 26th of April 2019.
Published @ 09:47 p.m. EST.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Is there some possibility that the 12-1 to 12-3 correction was the minute iv of a still incomplete minor 3, matching the minute ii? Looking at /ES with overnight data, I see substantial differences in form between the two corrections; the ii is shallow and more of a flat structure (or a deep zigzag) with a lot of A/C wave overlap, while what could be minute iv is a zigzag with a tiny B and quite a bit deeper overall. I’ve marked the swing structure on this chart. They look quite reasonably “matching” with sufficient alternation to me here, even if technically they are both zigzags (probably).
What is adding to my suspicion is that I can count a very reasonable 5 wave up off that low here on /ES (a minuette i) and now a minuette ii completing at a 38.2% retrace. So continue to “work” for the moment.
It’s almost certainly a minor 4 continuing, but it’s always good to consider alternatives.
Kevin,
but in this case we are going to 3300 target without retracement from the end of today if minuette II is over today?.
Lev
I don’t know about 3300, but yes, price would need to start going up very soon here. The falling price now in the final 30 minutes even more strongly supports the minor 4 model, not my wild hair alternate.
on SPX data minor 2 lasted 89 hours and was a zigzag
if minor 4 was over at the low I have labelled minute a then it would have lasted only 17 hours
it’s rather disproportionate
Hourly chart updated
So far so good for a triangle for minor 4. It may yet morph into a combination though, so flexibility is required.
Lara, one idea: as you say, “it is very clear SPX is in a strong trend” (regarding the weekly chart). And I fully agree. But the chart comment on ADX(14) is “no clear trend” because ADX is around 12 (below the 15 cutoff for “trend” vs. “non-trend”).
I have always found ADX at period 14 (the default) to be quite “slow”. For my MVTI trend indicator, I found I much prefer the results with ADX at period 8.
You might consider the pros and cons of a lower period for ADX assessment of trend.
Possibly.
The < 15 rule I got from Kirkpatrick and Dhalquist "Technical Analysis". It's supposed to remove false early signals. But yeah, it could be too low. 8 seems rather low though. I would want to go over a couple of years of data on the daily chart and see how many signals occurred from 8 to 14 and then how many were false and how many were true.
“It is my judgement that the wave count above has the highest probability, so it shall be the only wave count published on a daily basis.”
Lara does the above statement apply to the weekly or daily chart ?
Good question
Yes, a good question.
Monthly. I should make it clearer: the idea that cycle (or primary) waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are in those positions.
Ok thanks Lara.
Re the weekly chart(s), in the weekly video as well as on the S&P chart in Invysis, you’ve indicated that the less bearish option,where the top is Cycle I, rather than Cycle V, is the one you tend to favour.
If so, should the charts be reversed re this preferred option?
Yeah, they could be swapped. Although, if this fifth wave takes another 18 months to 2 years to complete then there could easily be more than 6 months divergence with price and the AD line…. in which case the first weekly chart could well be possible.
Which would need them to be swapped back over again.
And so I would rather wait until the structure of this fifth wave is closer to an end to start making a decision about which one really is more likely, because it’s not until that point I’ll have enough data to make a better decision.
Until then I leave them labelled first and second. But I currently prefer the second. A bit.
just noting that an 18 month- 2 yr time frame would also set a new parameter regarding the correlation between yield curve inversion and recession, based on the Invysis chart and summation of 3 decades worth of data.
Fair enough Lara