Overall, this week’s analysis has expected a consolidation or pullback for an Elliott wave fourth wave correction. That view remains unchanged at the end of this week.

Summary: Minor wave 4 may continue for about two weeks or so and may find next support about 3,070. It may be a choppy overlapping consolidation. Thereafter, the upwards trend may resume. The next target is at 3,302 and then 3,336.

Three large pullbacks or consolidations during the next 1-2 years are expected: for minor wave 4, then intermediate (4), and then primary 4. Prior to each of these large corrections beginning, some weakness may begin to be evident.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Monthly charts were last published here, with video here. There are two further alternate monthly charts here, with video here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS

The two weekly Elliott wave counts below will be labelled First and Second. They may be about of even probability. When the fifth wave currently unfolding on weekly charts may be complete, then these two wave counts will diverge on the severity of the expected following bear market. To see an illustration of this future divergence monthly charts should be viewed.

FIRST WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

The basic Elliott wave structure consists of a five wave structure up followed by a three wave structure down (for a bull market). This wave count sees the bull market beginning in March 2009 as an incomplete five wave impulse and now within the last fifth wave, which is labelled cycle wave V. This impulse is best viewed on monthly charts. The weekly chart focusses on the end of it.

Elliott wave is fractal. This fifth wave labelled cycle wave V may end a larger fifth wave labelled Super Cycle wave (V), which may end a larger first wave labelled Grand Super Cycle wave I.

The teal Elliott channel is drawn using Elliott’s first technique about the impulse of Super Cycle wave (V). Draw the first trend line from the end of cycle wave I (off to the left of the chart, the weekly candlestick beginning 30th November 2014) to the end of cycle wave III, then place a parallel copy on the end of cycle wave II. This channel perfectly shows where cycle wave IV ended at support. The strongest portion of cycle wave III, the end of primary wave 3, overshoots the upper edge of the channel. This is a typical look for a third wave and suggests the channel is drawn correctly and the way the impulse is counted is correct.

Within Super Cycle wave (V), cycle wave III is shorter than cycle wave I. A core Elliott wave rule states that a third wave may never be the shortest. For this rule to be met in this instance, cycle wave V may not be longer in length than cycle wave III. This limit is at 3,477.39.

Cycle wave V may subdivide either as an impulse or an ending diagonal. Impulses are much more common. An alternative wave count which considered an ending diagonal has been invalidated. While it is possible a diagonal may become an alternate wave count in coming weeks or months, at this stage the structure does not fit.

At this stage, cycle wave V may take another one to two or so years to complete.

The daily chart below will focus on movement from the end of intermediate wave (1) within primary wave 3.

In historic analysis, two further monthly charts have been published that do not have a limit to upwards movement and are more bullish than this wave count. Members are encouraged to consider those possibilities (links below summary) alongside the wave counts presented on a daily and weekly basis.

Within cycle wave V, primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Within primary wave 3, intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete. Within the middle of intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 2,855.96.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

All of primary wave 3, intermediate wave (3) and minor wave 3 may only subdivide as impulses.

Minor wave 3 is now complete. Minor wave 3 shows an increase in momentum beyond minor wave 1; MACD supports this wave count.

Minor wave 2 was a sharp deep pullback, so minor wave 4 may be expected to be a very shallow sideways consolidation to exhibit alternation. Minor wave 2 lasted 2 weeks, so minor wave 4 may be about the same duration to have good proportion.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 3,021.99.

Intermediate wave (3) must move far enough above the end of intermediate wave (1) to then allow intermediate wave (4) to unfold and remain above intermediate wave (1) price territory. While intermediate wave (3) has now moved beyond the end of intermediate wave (1), meeting a core Elliott wave rule, it still needs to continue higher to give room for intermediate wave (4).

The target for intermediate wave (3) fits with a target calculated for minor wave 3.

Draw an Elliott channel now about intermediate wave (3) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy on the end of minor wave 2. If it is time consuming enough, then minor wave 4 may find support about the lower edge of this blue channel (although it looks like it may end midway within the channel).

HOURLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 2 was a deep sharp zigzag lasting ten sessions. Given the guideline of alternation, minor wave 4 would least likely subdivide as a zigzag and may more likely subdivide as one of either a triangle, combination or flat correction. Triangles and combinations particularly are usually longer lasting structures than zigzags, so minor wave 4 may last longer than ten sessions.

Minor wave 4 would most likely be shallow.

Minor wave 4 is relabelled at the end of this week to consider the possibility of an Elliott wave triangle unfolding sideways. Within the triangle, minute wave a may have been complete at this week’s low as a quick sharp zigzag and minute wave b may be complete, or it may move a little higher and may make a new high above the start of minute wave a at 3,154.26 as in a running triangle.

There are still multiple structural possibilities for minor wave 4 as it continues. It may still unfold as a combination or flat correction and exhibit alternation with the zigzag of minor wave 2. Labelling within minor wave 4 will still probably change as it continues.

It is unlikely that minor wave 4 was over at this week’s low. It would be too brief in comparison to minor wave 2 and would exhibit no alternation in structure.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

This weekly chart is almost identical to the first weekly chart, with the sole exception being the degree of labelling.

This weekly chart moves the degree of labelling for the impulse beginning in March 2009 all down one degree. This difference is best viewed on monthly charts.

The impulse is still viewed as nearing an end; a fifth wave is still seen as needing to complete higher. This wave count labels it primary wave 5.

Primary wave 5 may be subdividing as either an impulse, in the same way that cycle wave V is seen for the first weekly chart.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There are three large consolidations noted on this chart, in shaded areas. After a breakout from a multi-month consolidation, it is reasonable to expect a multi month bullish move may result.

This chart very clearly exhibits rising price on declining volume has now persisted for several years. A decline in volume this month, in current market conditions, is not of concern.

On Balance Volume supports the Elliott wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

It is very clear that the S&P is in an upwards trend and the bull market is continuing. Price does not move in straight lines; there will be pullbacks and consolidations along the way.

This week completes a bullish candlestick, which suggests more upwards movement next week.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is an upwards trend in place. There will be corrections along the way.

The lack of strength off the low this week is suspicious. Upwards days off the lows did not complete an 80% up day nor two back to back 70% up days. This may be resolved by some sideways movement.

If price gaps up with support from volume to make new all time highs, then the small pullback of this week may be considered complete.

BREADTH – AD LINE

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Bear markets from the Great Depression and onwards have been preceded by an average minimum of 4 months divergence between price and the AD line with only two exceptions in 1946 and 1976. With the AD line making new all time highs last week, the end of this bull market and the start of a new bear market is very likely a minimum of 4 months away, which is mid March 2020.

In all bear markets in the last 90 years there is some positive correlation (0.6022) between the length of bearish divergence and the depth of the following bear market. No to little divergence is correlated with more shallow bear markets. Longer divergence is correlated with deeper bear markets.

If a bear market does develop here, it comes after no bearish divergence. It would therefore more likely be shallow.

All of small, mid and large caps have made new swing highs above the prior swing high on the 13th of September, but only large caps have made new all time highs. This upwards movement appears to be mostly driven by large caps, which is a feature of aged bull markets. This bull market at over 10 years duration certainly fits the definition of aged.

This week price has moved lower with a lower low and a lower high, but the AD line has moved higher. This divergence is bullish.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

On Friday price has moved higher but failed by a very small margin to make a new all time high. The AD line has moved higher to make a new all time high but only by a very small margin. This divergence is bullish, but it is weak.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

The all time high for inverted VIX was on 30th October 2017. There is now over two years of bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX.

The rise in price is not coming with a normal corresponding decline in VIX; VIX remains elevated. This long-term divergence is bearish and may yet develop further as the bull market matures.

This divergence may be an early warning, a part of the process of a top developing that may take years. It may is clearly not useful in timing a trend change from bull to a fully fledged bear market.

This week price and inverted VIX have both moved lower. There is no new short-term divergence.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Both price and inverted VIX have moved higher on Friday. Neither have made new highs. There is no new short-term divergence. However, inverted VIX is moving higher more slowly than price.

DOW THEORY

Dow Theory confirmed a bear market in December 2018. This does not necessarily mean a bear market at Grand Super Cycle degree though; Dow Theory makes no comment on Elliott wave counts. On the 25th of August 2015 Dow Theory also confirmed a bear market. The Elliott wave count sees that as part of cycle wave II. After Dow Theory confirmation of a bear market in August 2015, price went on to make new all time highs and the bull market continued.

DJIA: 23,344.52 – a close on the 19th of December at 23,284.97 confirms a bear market.

DJT: 9,806.79 – price has closed below this point on the 13th of December.

S&P500: 2,532.69 – a close on the 19th of December at 2,506.96 provides support to a bear market conclusion.

Nasdaq: 6,630.67 – a close on the 19th of December at 6,618.86 provides support to a bear market conclusion.

With all the indices having moved higher following a Dow Theory bear market confirmation, Dow Theory would confirm a bull market if the following highs are made:

DJIA: 26,951.81 – a close above this point has been made on the 3rd of July 2019.

DJT: 11,623.58 – to date DJT has failed to confirm an ongoing bull market.

S&P500: 2,940.91 – a close above this point was made on the 29th of April 2019.

Nasdaq: 8,133.30 – a close above this point was made on the 26th of April 2019.

Published @ 09:58 p.m. EST.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.