Select Page

A consolidation was expected to continue. A small downwards day closes as a Doji, which fits expectations.

Summary: The upwards trend remains intact and there is underlying strength in this market still. A consolidation may unfold here that may be shallow and short lived.

The final target remains the same at 3,045. Alternate monthly wave counts allow for a target as high as 4,119.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Monthly charts were last published here. Video is here.




S&P 500 Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This weekly chart shows all of cycle waves III, IV and V so far.

Cycle wave II fits as a time consuming double combination: flat – X – zigzag. Combinations tend to be more time consuming corrective structures than zigzags. Cycle wave IV has completed as a multiple zigzag that should be expected to be more brief than cycle wave II.

Cycle wave IV may have ended at the lower edge of the Elliott channel.

Within cycle wave V, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,346.58.

Although both cycle waves II and IV are labelled W-X-Y, they are different corrective structures. There are two broad groups of Elliott wave corrective structures: the zigzag family, which are sharp corrections, and all the rest, which are sideways corrections. Multiple zigzags belong to the zigzag family and combinations belong to the sideways family. There is perfect alternation between the possible double zigzag of cycle wave IV and the combination of cycle wave II.

Although there is gross disproportion between the duration of cycle waves II and IV, the size of cycle wave IV in terms of price makes these two corrections look like they should be labelled at the same degree. Proportion is a function of either or both of price and time.

Draw the Elliott channel about Super Cycle wave (V) with the first trend line from the end of cycle wave I (at 2,079.46 on the week beginning 30th November 2014) to the high of cycle wave III, then place a parallel copy on the low of cycle wave II. Cycle wave V may find resistance about the upper edge.

It is possible that cycle wave V may end in October 2019. If it does not end there, or if the AD line makes new all time highs during or after June 2019, then the expectation for cycle wave V to end would be pushed out to March 2020 as the next possibility. Thereafter, the next possibility may be October 2020. March and October are considered as likely months for a bull market to end as in the past they have been popular. That does not mean though that this bull market may not end during any other month.


S&P 500 Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The daily chart will focus on the structure of cycle wave V.

Cycle wave V must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse is much more common and that will be how it is labelled. A diagonal would be considered if overlapping suggests it.

Primary wave 2 may have been a very brief and shallow expanded flat correction.

Within primary wave 3, intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete. It is possible that intermediate wave (3) may be complete. It is also possible that minor wave 5 within it may extend higher.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,852.42.

The best fit channel is no longer showing where pullbacks are finding support, so it is removed. A channel is drawn using Elliott’s first technique about the impulse of primary wave 3. Intermediate wave (4) may find support about the lower edge of the channel.


S&P 500 Hourly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (2) was a shallow expanded flat correction lasting four sessions. Given the guideline of alternation, intermediate wave (4) may be expected to most likely unfold as a single or multiple zigzag, or a triangle or combination.

Intermediate wave (4) is today labelled as either an incomplete double combination or an incomplete double flat correction. Both of these are sideways structures. Within either minor wave X may be complete.

Minor wave Y may subdivide either as a zigzag or a flat, ending about the same level as minor wave W at 2,897 so that the structure has a sideways look.

It is still impossible to know which structure intermediate wave (4) may be. Labelling within it may change again as it unfolds.

It is also still possible that only minute wave i within minor wave 5 is complete at this week’s high, but now the duration of the correction makes this less likely.

If this wave count is wrong, it may be in expecting intermediate wave (3) is complete. It may continue higher.



S&P 500 weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of et=”_blank”>

Resistance about 2,880 has been overcome. Next resistance is about the prior all time high about 2,940.

On Balance Volume makes another new all time high last week strongly supporting the Elliott wave count.

A decline in volume while price moves higher is not of concern given current market conditions. This has been a feature of this market for a long time and yet price continues higher.

This week moved price higher, but the candlestick closed red and the balance of volume was downwards. With a short trading week, it would be best to look inside the week at daily volume bars to judge the short-term volume profile. Overall, this chart remains bullish and supports the Elliott wave count.


S&P 500 daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The December 2018 low is expected to remain intact. The two 90% upwards days on 26th December 2018 and 6th January 2019 indicate this upwards trend has internal strength.

Lowry’s data shows that on the 8th of April Selling Pressure has reached another new low for this bull market, and Buying Power has reached a new high for this rally. This indicates an expansion in demand and a contraction in supply, which has historically been associated with strong phases of bull markets. This strongly supports the Elliott wave count, which expects new all time highs to come this year.

While the last swing low of the 25th of March remains intact, there exists a series of higher highs and higher lows from the major low in December 2018. It would be safest to assume the upwards trend remains intact. ADX agrees.

The last gap is now closed and is relabelled as an exhaustion gap. The risk of a near-term pullback or consolidation is heightened. This fits the Elliott wave count expectation. The target calculated from the pennant pattern may not be reached in the short term.



AD Line daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Every single bear market from the Great Depression and onwards has been preceded by a minimum of 4 months divergence between price and the AD line. With the AD line making a new all time high again last week, the end of this bull market and the start of a new bear market must be a minimum of 4 months away, which is the end of July 2019 at this time.

Last week the AD line makes another new all time high. Bullish mid-term divergence continues.

This week the AD line moves lower while price moves higher. This divergence is bearish for the short term.

Mid and large caps have both made new highs above the swing high of the 25th of February, but small caps have not. However, small caps AD line has made a new all time high on the 12th of April indicating broad strength underlying this market.


AD Line daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

On Friday both price and the AD line moved slightly lower. Downwards movement has support from falling market breadth. There is no new short-term divergence.



VIX daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

This week price moved higher, but inverted VIX moved lower. Upwards movement did not come with a normal corresponding decline in VIX. With VIX increasing this week, this divergence is bearish.


VIX daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

On Thursday inverted VIX moved higher while price moved lower. Downwards movement did not come with a normal corresponding increase in VIX. With a short term decline in VIX, this divergence is bullish for the short term.


Dow Theory confirmed a bear market in December 2018. This does not necessarily mean a bear market at Grand Super Cycle degree though; Dow Theory makes no comment on Elliott wave counts. On the 25th of August 2015 Dow Theory also confirmed a bear market. The Elliott wave count sees that as part of cycle wave II. After Dow Theory confirmation of a bear market in August 2015, price went on to make new all time highs and the bull market continued.

DJIA: 23,344.52 – a close on the 19th of December at 23,284.97 confirms a bear market.

DJT: 9,806.79 – price has closed below this point on the 13th of December.

S&P500: 2,532.69 – a close on the 19th of December at 2,506.96 provides support to a bear market conclusion.

Nasdaq: 6,630.67 – a close on the 19th of December at 6,618.86 provides support to a bear market conclusion.

With all the indices moving now higher, Dow Theory would confirm a bull market if the following highs are made:

DJIA: 26,951.81

DJT: 11,623.58

S&P500: 2,940.91

Nasdaq: 8,133.30.

Published @ 08:24 p.m. EST.

Careful risk management protects your trading account(s).
Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always trade with stops.

2. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.