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A short sharp thrust down was expected before price turned upwards, but this is not what happened.

Price moved upwards at the start of the session.

Summary: The trend remains the same, until proven otherwise. Assume the trend is up while price is above 2,147.58. The mid term targets are 2,332 or 2,445. If price makes a new low below 2,147.58, then overall sideways movement for a continuation of a longer consolidation would be expected. At this stage, a deeper pullback looks increasingly unlikely. There is not enough selling pressure which would be required to push price lower.

Last monthly chart for the main wave count is here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.



S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave II was a shallow 0.41 zigzag lasting three months. Cycle wave IV is seen as a more shallow 0.28 double combination lasting 15 months. With cycle wave IV five times the duration of cycle wave II, it should be over there.

Cycle wave I lasted 28 months (not a Fibonacci number), cycle wave II lasted a Fibonacci 3 months, cycle wave III lasted 38 months (not a Fibonacci number), and cycle wave IV lasted 15 months (two more than a Fibonacci 13).

If the target for cycle wave V is for it to be equal in length with cycle wave I, then it may also be expected to be about equal in duration. So far cycle wave V is in its sixth month. After this month, a further 22 months to total 28 seems a reasonable expectation, or possibly a further 15 months to total a Fibonacci 21.

This first weekly wave count expects the more common structure of an impulse is unfolding for cycle wave V. Within cycle wave V, primary waves 1 and now 2 should be over. Within primary wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,991.68. If price makes a new high above 2,203.68, then that would provide enough confidence that intermediate wave (2) should be over to move the invalidation point on the weekly chart up to 2,147.58.

There is one other possible structure for cycle wave V, an ending diagonal. This is covered in an alternate.


S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 is complete as a shallow regular flat correction. Primary wave 3 is underway.

Within primary wave 3, intermediate wave (1) is a complete impulse. Intermediate wave (2) may now be a complete flat correction.

It is still just possible that intermediate wave (2) may not be complete and could continue sideways and a little lower. A deep pullback would not be expected, only a sideways combination, double flat or slightly lower expanded flat would be indicated. If price moves above 2,203.68, then upwards movement from the low at 2,147.58 would be more than twice the length of intermediate wave (2). At that stage, the probability that upwards movement is a B wave within intermediate wave (2) would be so low the idea should be discarded. A new high above 2,203.68 would add confidence in the upwards trend.

If price moves below 2,147.58, then this main wave count would change to see intermediate wave (2) continuing further sideways. The alternate would remain an alternate. The invalidation point would move down to the start of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 2,147.58.

Add a mid line to the base channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2. Draw this channel from the start of primary wave 1 (seen on the weekly chart) to the end of primary wave 2, then place a parallel copy on the end of primary wave 1. The mid line may provide some support along the way up.

At this stage, it looks most likely that intermediate wave (3) has begun. It should be expected to show the subdivisions of minor waves 2 and 4 clearly on the daily chart with one to a few red daily candlesticks or doji. With minor wave 2 now showing as two red candlesticks, one doji and a green candlestick with a long lower wick, this wave count so far has a typical look.


S&P 500 hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minute wave ii fits as a double combination: flat – X – triangle.

Minute wave iii has not moved far enough above the end of minute wave i yet for it to be complete. It needs to move far enough above the end of minute wave i to allow room for a subsequent correction for minute wave iv to unfold and remain above first wave price territory.

At 2,227 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave iii may only subdivide as an impulse. So far, within minute wave iii, minuette wave (i) may have ended at today’s high. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 2,180.05.

The target for minor wave 3 remains the same. At 2,230 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Mid term targets for intermediate wave (3) remain the same. At 2,332 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). If price gets to the first target and the structure is incomplete, or if it just keeps going up through the first target, then the second target would be used. At 2,445 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).



S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate may diverge from the main wave count.

The other structural possibility for cycle wave V is an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are more often contracting than expanding, so that is what this alternate will expect.

Ending diagonals require all sub-waves to subdivide as zigzags. Zigzags subdivide 5-3-5. Thus primary wave 1 may now be a complete (or almost complete) zigzag, labelled intermediate waves (A)-(B)-(C) which subdivides 5-3-5.

The normal depth for second and fourth waves of diagonals is from 0.66 to 0.81 the prior actionary wave. Primary wave 2 may end within this range, from 1,941 to 1,883.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 1,810.10.

When primary wave 2 is a complete zigzag, then another zigzag upwards for primary wave 3 must make a new high above the end of primary wave 1. It would most likely be shorter than primary wave 1 as diagonals are more commonly contracting. If primary wave 3 is longer than primary wave 1, then an expanding diagonal would be indicated.

The psychology of diagonals is quite different to impulses. Diagonals contain corrective characteristics and subdivide as a series of zigzags. When diagonals turn up in fifth wave positions, they take on some of the properties of the correction which inevitably follows them. The deterioration in fundamentals and underlying technicals is more extreme and more evident. There is some support for this idea at this time.

The final target of 2,500 would not be able to be reached by an ending contracting diagonal. The final target for this alternate would be calculated only when primary wave 4 is complete.

The classic pattern equivalent is a rising wedge.


S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible now that intermediate wave (C) is a complete five wave impulse. However, this wave count suffers from disproportion between minor waves 2 and 4 which gives this possible impulse an odd look. It looks like a three where it should look like a five. However, the S&P just does not always have waves which look right at all time frames.

Because this wave count expects to see a substantial trend change here from bull to bear for a multi week deep pullback, it absolutely requires some indication from price before confidence may be had in it. A new low below 2,147.58 would add confidence.

At this stage, there is not enough selling pressure to support this wave count. When the market has fallen recently, it has fallen of its own weight. For a deep pullback sellers would have to enter the market and be active enough to push price lower. That is not happening at this time.



S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Last week completes another doji candlestick, this time with a slightly wider range than the week before. Overall, this doji represents a balance between bulls and bears with the bears very slightly stronger to complete a red candlestick. A slight increase in volume is slightly bearish, but in this instance because the candelstick is a doji we should look inside at the daily volume bars for a clearer picture.

On Balance Volume remains bullish while it is above the longer purple trend line. A new trend line is added. A break above this shorter and steeper line would be another bullish signal.

RSI is still not extreme. There is room for price to rise further.


S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Another doji, this one a Gravestone doji, during a consolidation cannot be interpreted as a trend change signal. Slightly stronger volume for an overall downwards day is very slightly bearish, but for a doji this is not a strong signal either. Overall, price continues to move sideways and is range bound. Overall, volume is still declining, as is ATR, and the Bollinger Bands remain tightly contracted.

Price may be finding some resistance at the horizontal trend line about 2,185. A break above resistance on a day with some increase in volume would add further confidence to the wave count.

It should be expected that ATR will again start to increase as a trend becomes stronger and clearer.

ADX is still declining, but during this entire time the +DX line has remained above the -DX line. No trend change has been indicated from ADX; the trend remains up. ADX may be indicating an interruption to the upward trend by some sideways consolidation, which is what has been happening.

The bullish signal from On Balance Volume with a break above the purple trend line is now negated with OBV returning to below the line. OBV today found support at the yellow line. The purple line has been weakened. Another break above it would be a bullish signal, but a weaker signal.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to rise or fall. There is no divergence at this stage between price and RSI to indicate weakness, but even if there was it would not be given much weight. The absence of divergence offers some slight support to this analysis today.

Stochastics is close to overbought, but this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. If the market is still consolidating, a downwards swing from price would be expected here.

Momentum has been declining as price has been moving overall sideways. There is divergence between price and MACD, but this is unreliable at this time and is still not given any weight in this analysis.

Bollinger Bands remain tightly contracted but may be beginning to widen a little. It would be normal to expect them to again expand as some volatility returns to this market and price starts to more clearly trend. That is what the Elliott wave count expects to happen. It remains to be seen if this market can behave normally at this time though.


VIX daily 2016
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Volatility is declining as price is rising. This is normal for an upwards trend.

There are a few instances of multi day divergence between price and inverted VIX noted here. Bearish divergence is blue. Bullish divergence is yellow. Each of these instances was followed by expected price movement if only for two days. Divergence with VIX and price is not always working, but it is still sometimes working. So it will be noted.

It appears so far that divergence between inverted VIX and price is again working to indicate short term movements spanning one or two days.

No new short term divergence between price and inverted VIX is noted today.


AD Line daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

There is support from market breadth as price is rising.

There is today a slightly longer term hidden bearish divergence between price and the AD line. The AD line today has made a new high above the prior high of 15th of August, but price has made a slightly lower high. This indicates some weakness in price and may be followed by a day or two of downwards movement.

However, only one recent instance of divergence working between the AD line and price has been noted. Several other instances (more long than short term) have been noted in recent months which have not worked. This divergence today should be given only a very little weight.


Major lows within the prior bull market:

DJIA: 15,855.12 (15th October, 2014) – closed below on 25th August, 2015.

DJT: 7,700.49 (12th October, 2014) – closed below on 24th August, 2015.

S&P500: 1,821.61 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Nasdaq: 4,117.84 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Major highs within the new bear market:

DJIA: 17,977.85 (4th November, 2015) – closed above on 18th April, 2016.

DJT: 8,358.20 (20th November, 2015) – has not closed above this point yet.

S&P500: 2,116.48 (3rd November, 2015) – closed above this point on 8th June, 2016.

Nasdaq: 5,176.77 (2nd December, 2015) – closed above this point on 1st August, 2016.

Dow Theory Conclusion: Original Dow Theory still sees price in a bear market because the transportations have failed to confirm an end to that bear market. Modified Dow Theory (adding S&P and Nasdaq) has failed still to confirm an end to the old bull market, modified Dow Theory sees price still in a bull market.

This analysis is published @ 10:49 p.m. EST.