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More upwards movement was expected.

Summary: The trend is still down, but a bear market rally continues and is not done yet. It may end on Monday or Thursday next week. A new high above 2,116 is expected in the next few days now. If price moves above 2,122, then the target for upwards movement to end is 2,132. Thereafter, the downwards trend should resume in force. This bear market rally is extremely unlikely to make a new all time high. It is expected to stop before 2,134.72.

To see how each of the bull and bear wave counts fit within a larger time frame see the Grand Supercycle Analysis.

To see last analysis of weekly and monthly charts click here.

If I was asked to pick a winner (which I am reluctant to do) I would say the bear wave count has a higher probability. It is better supported by regular technical analysis at the monthly chart level, it fits the Grand Supercycle analysis better, and it has overall the “right look”.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.



S&P 500 daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave IV should exhibit alternation to cycle wave II.

Cycle wave II was a shallow 0.41 zigzag lasting three months. Cycle wave IV should exhibit alternation in structure and maybe also alternation in depth. Cycle wave IV may end when price comes to touch the lower edge of the teal channel which is drawn about super cycle wave V using Elliott’s technique (see this channel on weekly and monthly charts).

Cycle wave IV may end within the price range of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Because of the good Fibonacci ratio for primary wave 3 and the perfect subdivisions within it, I am confident that primary wave 4 has its range from 1,730 to 1,647.

If a zigzag is complete at the last major low as labelled, then cycle wave IV may be unfolding as a flat, combination or triangle.

Primary wave B or X is an incomplete zigzag unfolding upwards. If cycle wave IV is an expanded flat correction, then primary wave B may make a new high above the start of primary wave A at 2,134.72. If cycle wave IV is a combination, then primary wave X may make a new high above the start of primary wave W. There is no upper invalidation point for these reasons.

Primary wave A or W lasted three months. When it arrives primary wave Y or C may be expected to also last about three months.

Intermediate waves (A) and (B) together lasted a Fibonacci 34 days within primary wave B or X. Intermediate wave (C) may complete in a total Fibonacci five days, which would see it continue now for a further one day. If it does not manage that, then a further three days would see it total a Fibonacci eight.


S&P 500 daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave IV may unfold as a shallow triangle. This would provide alternation with the 0.41 zigzag of cycle wave II.

Primary wave B may be unfolding as a zigzag. Primary wave B may make a new high above the start of primary wave A at 2,134.72 as in a running triangle. There is no upper invalidation point for this wave count for that reason.

The whole structure moves sideways in an ever decreasing range. The purpose of triangles is to take up time and move price sideways. A possible time expectation for this idea may be a total Fibonacci eight or thirteen months, with thirteen more likely. So far cycle wave IV has lasted six months.


S&P 500 hourly 2015
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There are at least two different ways to label this upwards movement, so this hourly wave count and that for the bear below will be used to illustrate two different ideas. Both ideas work in the same way for both the bull and bear wave counts.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. It is not subdividing as a diagonal at this stage, so it is the more common impulse.

Minor wave 3 may have ended at the high for Thursday within the impulse. If this is correct, then minor wave 3 is shorter than minor wave 1 by 6.46 points. Because a core Elliott wave rule states that within an impulse a third wave may never be the shortest, this limits the fifth wave to no longer than equality in length with the third at 2,122.

On the daily chart, this wave count looks better than the second idea published with the bear hourly. Both minor waves 2 and 4 show on the daily chart as small red candlesticks and that gives this impulse the right look.

The triangle for minor wave 4 completed and was followed by upwards movement. The following correction would be minute wave ii. Minor wave 5 may be extending (except it should not; it should be shorter than minor wave 3).

Because minor wave 5 should not be extending, because it may not be longer than minor wave 3, this first idea of how to label this upwards impulse now looks like it has a lower probability than the second idea.

This wave count would expect most likely one more day of upwards movement to just above 2,116.48 but not above 2,122.

The channel is drawn here using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy on the end of minor wave 4. Minor wave 5 may end when price finds resistance at the upper edge of the channel.



S&P 500 daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see cycle wave IV a completed flat correction. This would provide some structural alternation with the zigzag of cycle wave II.

This is a regular flat but does not have a normal regular flat look. Primary wave C is too long in relation to primary wave A. Primary wave C would be 3.84 short of 4.236 the length of primary wave A. While it is possible to also see cycle wave IV as a complete zigzag (the subdivisions for that idea would be labelled the same as the bear wave count below, daily chart) that would not provide structural alternation with the zigzag of cycle wave II, and so I am not considering it.

This idea requires not only a new high but that the new high must come with a clear five upwards, not a three.

At 2,562 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I. Cycle wave I was just over one year in duration so cycle wave V should be expected to also reach equality in duration. Cycle degree waves should be expected to last about one to several years, so this expectation is reasonable. It would be extremely unlikely for this idea that cycle wave V was close to completion, because it has not lasted nearly long enough for a cycle degree wave.

I added a bear market trend line drawn using the approach outlined by Magee in “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends”. When this lilac line is clearly breached by upwards movement that shall confirm a trend change from bear to bull. The breach must be by a close of 3% or more of market value. If it comes with a clear five up, then this wave count would be further confirmed.

While price remains below the bear market trend line, we should assume the trend remains the same: downwards.

Intermediate wave (1) is a complete five wave impulse and intermediate wave (2) is a complete three wave zigzag. Subdivisions at the hourly chart level would be the same for this wave count as for the other two wave counts; A-B-C of a zigzag subdivides 5-3-5, exactly the same as 1-2-3 of an impulse.

For this wave count, when the next five up is complete that would be intermediate wave (3). Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,019.39.

This wave count does not have support from regular technical analysis and it has a big problem of structure for Elliott wave analysis. I do not have confidence in this wave count. It is presented as a “what if?” to consider all possibilities.



S&P 500 daily bear 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

This bear wave count has a better fit at Grand Super Cycle degree and is better supported by regular technical analysis at the monthly chart level. But it is a huge call to make, so I present it second, after a more bullish wave count, and until all other options have been eliminated.

There are two ideas presented in this chart: a huge flat correction or a double flat / double combination. The huge flat is more likely. They more commonly have deep B waves than combinations have deep X waves (in my experience).

A huge flat correction would be labelled super cycle (a)-(b)-(c). It now expects a huge super cycle wave (c) to move substantially below the end of (a) at 666.79. C waves can behave like third waves. This idea expects a devastating bear market, and a huge crash to be much bigger than the last two bear markets on the monthly bear chart.

The second idea is a combination which would be labelled super cycle (w)-(x)-(y). The second structure for super cycle wave (y) would be a huge sideways repeat of super cycle wave (a) for a double flat, or a quicker zigzag for a double combination. It is also possible (least likely) that price could drift sideways in big movements for over 10 years for a huge triangle for super cycle wave (y).

The bear wave count sees a leading diagonal for a primary degree first wave unfolding. Within leading diagonals, the first, third and fifth waves are most commonly zigzags but sometimes may appear to be impulses. Here intermediate wave (1) is seen as a complete zigzag.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete zigzag within the leading diagonal. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 2,134.72. This wave count expects minor wave C to end midway within its channel, above the end of minor wave A at 2,116.48 but not above 2,134.72.


S&P 500 daily bear 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

This hourly wave count shows another way to look at recent upwards movement. I have checked both ideas on the five minute chart and both work. To envisage this idea for the bull wave count everything would be moved up one degree.

Minute wave iii may now be complete, showing its subdivisions clearly. At this stage, this second idea now has a more typical look. I judge it to have a higher probability.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (ii) is 0.28 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i) or (iii).

Minute wave iii would be longer than minute wave i, but there is no Fibonacci ratio between the two waves. This makes it more likely that minute wave v shall exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii. The most common ratio for a fifth wave is equality in length with the first wave. Minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i at 2,132. This target expects to see a nail biting end to this bear market rally, falling just short of the all time high.

The target is calculated based upon the most common ratio for a fifth wave. If the target is not met, then it is also possible that minute wave v may exhibit the next most common ratio, 0.618 the length of minute wave i at 2,114. This would see minor wave C fail to move beyond the end of minor wave A, so it would be slightly truncated. This is possible, but it has a lower probability.

The most important material difference between this very bearish wave count and the first bull wave count is the invalidation point at 2,134.72. Any breach of this invalidation point by any amount on any time frame fully invalidates the bear wave count.


S&P 500 daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Daily: Volume is declining as price moves higher. This rise in price is suspicious; price is not pushed up by more buyers.

ADX is still declining indicating the market is not trending. Today ATR somewhat agrees as it too is beginning to turn down.

Upwards movement may continue until Stochastics reaches overbought. Two more horizontal lines for resistance are drawn. If price reaches either of these lines while Stochastics reaches overbought, then upwards movement may be expected to end there.

On Balance Volume is a reasonably reliable leading indicator. The breach of the green trend line by OBV was a very bearish signal. If OBV comes up far enough to touch that trend line, it may assist to indicate when and where upwards movement in price may come to end.

Overall, the regular technical analysis picture indicates that this upwards movement is more likely a bear market rally than the resumption of a bull market. Volume on downwards days is mostly stronger than upwards days and overall volume is declining while price moves higher. OBV is very bearish and much of this upwards movement came with a decline in ATR.

A note on Dow Theory: for the bear wave count I would wait for Dow Theory to confirm a huge market crash. So far the industrials and the transportation indices have made new major swing lows, but the S&P500 and Nasdaq have not.

S&P500: 1,820.66
Nasdaq: 4,116.60
DJT: 7,700.49 – this price point was breached.
DJIA: 15,855.12 – this price point was breached.

To the upside, for Dow Theory, I am watching each index carefully. If any make new all time highs, that will be noted. If they all make new all time highs, then a continuation of a bull market would be confirmed. So far none have made new all time highs.

This analysis is published about 5:27 p.m. EST.