Upwards movement was expected and price remains within the channel. The target at 2,107 was inadequate.
Summary: Upwards movement may again be over, but this is unconfirmed. If price continues higher, a possible target for it to end is at 2,119 – 2,121. Only when the channel on the hourly chart is breached with downwards movement may confidence be had in a trend change.
To see how each of the bull and bear wave counts fit within a larger time frame see the Grand Supercycle Analysis.
To see last analysis of weekly and monthly charts go here.
If I was asked to pick a winner (which I am reluctant to do) I would say the bear wave count has a higher probability. It is better supported by regular technical analysis at the monthly chart level, it fits the Grand Supercycle analysis better, and it has overall the “right look”.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
BULL ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
DAILY CHART – COMBINATION OR FLAT
Click chart to enlarge.
Cycle wave IV should exhibit alternation to cycle wave II.
Cycle wave II was a shallow 0.41 zigzag lasting three months. Cycle wave IV should exhibit alternation in structure and maybe also alternation in depth. Cycle wave IV may end when price comes to touch the lower edge of the teal channel which is drawn about super cycle wave V using Elliott’s technique (see this channel on weekly and monthly charts).
Cycle wave IV is may end within the price range of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Because of the good Fibonacci ratio for primary wave 3 and the perfect subdivisions within it, I am confident that primary wave 4 has its range from 1,730 to 1,647.
If a zigzag is complete at the last major low as labelled, then cycle wave IV may be unfolding as a flat, combination or triangle.
Primary wave B or X upwards is a single zigzag. Upwards movement has reached above 2,108.44. Primary wave B has passed the minimum requirement for a flat correction of 90% the length of primary wave A, and so cycle wave IV may be unfolding as a flat correction.
Cycle wave IV may also still unfold as a combination: zigzag – X – flat. Both a flat or combination would provide alternation with the single zigzag of cycle wave II.
Primary wave B within a flat correction may make a new high above the start of primary wave A at 2,134.72 as in an expanded flat. There is no upper invalidation point for this wave count for that reason. Likewise, X waves within combinations may also move beyond the start of the first structure labelled primary wave W. There is no minimum or maximum length for an X wave within a combination.
DAILY CHART – TRIANGLE
Click chart to enlarge.
Cycle wave IV may unfold as a shallow triangle. This would provide alternation with the 0.41 zigzag of cycle wave II.
Primary wave B may be unfolding as a zigzag.
Primary wave B may move beyond the start of primary wave A at 2,134.72 as in a running triangle. There is no upper invalidation point for this wave count for that reason.
Primary wave C of a barrier or contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave A at 1,871.91.
The whole structure moves sideways in an ever decreasing range. The purpose of triangles is to take up time and move price sideways.
The hourly chart below works in exactly the same way for both of these daily charts, and so only one hourly chart for these two ideas will be presented today.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
The zigzag upwards for primary wave B or X may again be seen as complete, but while price remains within the channel it must be accepted that price may continue higher. Only when the channel is breached would a trend change be indicated. For confidence, the channel must be breached by at least one full hourly candlestick below the lower black trend line and not touching it.
There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within this zigzag.
Ratios within intermediate wave (C) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 1 and 3, nor is there a ratio between minor wave 5 and either of 3 or 1. If minor wave 5 continues a little higher ending at 2,121, then it would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.
Ratios within minor wave 5 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v has no ratio to either of minute waves i or iii. If minute wave v continues a little higher then at 2,119, it would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave i.
If the channel is breached before the target is met, then expect upwards movement is most likely over.
ALTERNATE BULL ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
It is possible to see cycle wave IV a completed flat correction. This would provide some structural alternation with the zigzag of cycle wave II.
This is a regular flat but does not have a normal regular flat look. Primary wave C is too long in relation to primary wave A. Primary wave C would be 3.84 short of 4.236 the length of primary wave A. While it is possible to also see cycle wave IV as a complete zigzag (the subdivisions for that idea would be labelled the same as the bear wave count below, daily chart) that would not provide structural alternation with the zigzag of cycle wave II, and so I am not considering it.
This idea requires not only a new high but that the new high must come with a clear five upwards, not a three.
At 2,562 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I. Cycle wave I was just over one year in duration so cycle wave V should be expected to also reach equality in duration. Cycle degree waves should be expected to last about one to several years, so this expectation is reasonable. It would be extremely unlikely for this idea that cycle wave V was close to completion, because it has not lasted nearly long enough for a cycle degree wave.
I added a bear market trend line drawn using the approach outlined by Magee in “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends”. When this lilac line is clearly breached by upwards movement that shall confirm a trend change from bear to bull. The breach must be by a close of 3% or more of market value. If it comes with a clear five up, then this wave count would be further confirmed.
While price remains below the bear market trend line, we should assume the trend remains the same: downwards.
Minor wave 3 should be complete. Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 2,020.13.
BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This bear wave count has a better fit at Grand Super Cycle degree and is better supported by regular technical analysis at the monthly chart level. But it is a huge call to make, so I present it second, after a more bullish wave count, and until all other options have been eliminated.
There are two ideas presented in this chart: a huge flat correction or a double flat / double combination. The huge flat is more likely. They more commonly have deep B waves than combinations have deep X waves (in my experience).
A huge flat correction would be labelled super cycle (a)-(b)-(c). It now expects a huge super cycle wave (c) to move substantially below the end of (a) at 666.79. C waves can behave like third waves. This idea expects a devastating bear market, and a huge crash to be much bigger than the last two bear markets on the monthly bear chart.
The second idea is a combination which would be labelled super cycle (w)-(x)-(y). The second structure for super cycle wave (y) would be a huge sideways repeat of super cycle wave (a) for a double flat, or a quicker zigzag for a double combination. It is also possible (least likely) that price could drift sideways in big movements for over 10 years for a huge triangle for super cycle wave (y).
The bear wave count sees a leading diagonal for a primary degree first wave unfolding. Within leading diagonals, the first, third and fifth waves are most commonly zigzags but sometimes may appear to be impulses. Here intermediate wave (1) is seen as a complete zigzag.
Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 2,134.72.
Intermediate wave (3) should unfold downwards when intermediate wave (2) is complete. It must move beyond the end of intermediate wave (1) and it would most likely be a zigzag.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
The zigzag upwards for intermediate wave (2) is seen in exactly the same way as the zigzag upwards for primary wave B or X for the first two wave counts. The degree of labelling for this idea is one degree lower.
Intermediate wave (3) is most likely to be a zigzag, if this is a third wave within a leading diagonal. It must move beyond the end of intermediate wave (1) at 1,871.91. It is likely to move reasonably below that point.
Actionary waves within diagonals do not normally exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other. The best target calculation method for intermediate wave (3) would be to use the ratios of minor waves A and C within it. That can only be done when minor waves A and B are complete, so that the length of minor wave A is known and the start of minor wave C is known.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
This regular technical analysis is updated after NY closed and StockCharts data is available, early on 4th November.
Daily: A small increase in volume gives some support to the rise in price for the day, but overall volume continues to decline as price moves higher as indicated by the downwards sloping trend line on volume. On Balance Volume today has breached a short term trend line which is bullish.
The upwards breakout above the upper horizontal line and move above the 200 day SMA is the most bullish picture from the S&P 500 for months. It gives some concern to the bear wave count, but it is not enough to fully support the very bullish alternate wave count. The picture at the monthly chart level remains very bearish. We have not had technical confirmation of an end to the bear market yet.
The black ADX line is still above 20 and rising indicating an upwards trend is in place.
The shorter Exponential Moving Average at 9 days is reasonably well showing where price is finding support.
Average True Range continues to decline. The rise in price is not accompanied by a rise in range, which is unusual. This is more typical of price behaviour during a consolidation, not a trend. ATR along with declining momentum at the hourly chart level and a decline in volume suggest that this upwards movement for price is weak and is likely to end soon.
There is again some small weak divergence between price and RSI; price has made a new high today but RSI is flat. RSI is close to overbought, but it is not there yet.
A note on Dow Theory: for the bear wave count I would wait for Dow Theory to confirm a huge market crash. So far the industrials and the transportation indices have made new major swing lows, but the S&P500 and Nasdaq have not.
S&P500: 1,820.66
Nasdaq: 4,116.60
DJT: 7,700.49 – this price point was breached.
DJIA: 15,855.12 – this price point was breached.
To the upside, for Dow Theory, I am watching each index carefully. If any make new all time highs, that will be noted. If they all make new all time highs, then a continuation of a bull market would be confirmed. So far none have made new all time highs.
This analysis is published about 04:52 p.m. EST.
Channel clearly breached today but move down does not look impulsive (leading diagonal?) and is probably corrective. Unless Mr Market is trying to sucker-punch the buy-the-dip-crowd and gaps down big tomorrow, I think new all-time highs are in the cards for DJI and SPX.
Usually day 1 there is lot of fight. Tomm is very important
If there is a lot of meandering one would have to lean towards seeing it as further consolidation prior to a run higher. If the bears are in control and considering the low volume of the recent advance, the next decline should be relentless. I agree if it does not start tomorrow new highs are likely.
Looks like breach of trend line on hourly chart.
Pre market ……..Going up lol! (groan) Double top coming?….not far to go
Broke through the old R1 I don’t know why this would stop now with a D Top so close
The SPX EMA looks like it’s 85% area would aprox correspond with a D Top
Just guessing
SKEW is getting up there while the VIX is still uninspired
Indicators : MACD Day&Week still moving up
A better indicator is the VIX Bollinger bands. Take a closer look – they are giving you a heads-up….
Vernecarty–what time frame do you use for Bollinger bands around VIX ?
Thanks
Compression can go on for weeks at a time. The longer and tighter, the more violent the subsequent move. The current compression is taking place in the context of an extremely over-bought market. I doubt it will go on for weeks…sitting on a ton of March 2016 calls just to be safe…standing trailing stop of ten points to sell…
The disconnect of mainstream media is nothing short of astonishing and underscores the strange times we are living in. People are actually talking about how hawkish the FED is and that imminent rate hikes are driving the market price action in gold. Is it possible that these so-called experts are so completely daft, as to understand that the FED will NEVER raise rates with their current balance sheet until and unless they are FORCED to do so by the bond market? The fact is they could not service that size balance sheet with any appreciable rise in rates. They are technically insolvent. It seems as if the entire financial world is in state of total insanity. Puerto Rico is back in the news and could be the trigger.
If we are going to see new highs it should happen this week.
Financial expert = ugly actor. Attractive actors go to Hollywood or become news anchors.
Hi Everyone,
New around here and to EW -Just wondering how the SPX sits along with the FTSE. Is it possible that the FTSE is leading the bear market or is it possible for FTSE to enter bear market in isolation of the SPX? Certainly hasn’t recovered as much as the US indices have in the last couple of weeks, and wondered if there was any significant correlation between the SPX and FTSE. Maybe more experienced traders can recall FTSE and SPX activity in previous downturns/bear markets?
Also – question for Lara regards the FTSE updates – i understand there is no fixed schedule, but was wondering when the next update is planned. I trade the FTSE a fair bit using daily S&R and enjoyed reading your “longer term” persepective. Found this very helpful in settling the trading nerves 🙂
Many thanks
FTSE analysis has been sporadic while I prepared for my CMT exam.
That’s over now and so I plan on updating either FTSE or Nasdaq once a week. I will see how it goes updating both once a week. If I keep it brief (maybe charts only for one and text for the other on alternating weeks) then I should be able to manage it.
The bearish wave count becomes invalid if the market makes a new high. The rules allow wave 2 to equal, but not exceed the start of wave 1.
I agree Elliott wave analysis on its own is definitely not sufficient information to make consistently winning trades, particularly if you are a beginner. Whatever approach one uses, the fact is that Mr Market generally succeeds in fooling the majority, and right now the majority is bullish. Admittedly, being bullish in the face of contrary indicators (like volume) the last few years has been the right call. That will certainly at some point change…
At what point does your bear thesis become no longer valid? Or is it a moving target ? How imp is the 2134/2135 level?
The bear invalidation point is black and white and cannot be moved any higher than 2,134.72.
A new all time high would invalidate the very bearish wave count.