Select Page

I have found a more acceptable bull Elliott wave count which sees the ending diagonal incomplete.

Bull Wave Count

S&P 500 daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The ending contracting diagonal may be incomplete.

The diagonal is still contracting. Minute wave iii is shorter than minute wave i, and minute wave iv is shorter than minute wave ii. Minute wave iv overlaps into minute wave i price territory as it must for a diagonal.

This will be my main wave count from here. When minuette wave (b) within the final zigzag is complete, then a target may be calculated using the ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minute wave v may not be longer than equality with minute wave iii at 2,225.95, and the third wave may not be the shortest.

Overall this wave count has a good look. It sees minute wave iii as complete at the more recent high, and within it minuette wave b is a combination: zigzag – X – triangle.

The problem of the lower ii-iv trend line being breached is resolved.

The lower aqua blue line is higher up. This illustrates the problem I had with Motive Wave and this trend line. When drawn from EXACTLY the same price points (which requires I contract the charts) on two different daily charts, the trend line crosses the candlesticks differently when I expand the charts back out. I concluded that I needed to remove all study boxes below (showing indicators like volume and MACD) for the trend line to sit correctly on both charts. The trend line on this chart is how it sits and now I can replicate that over multiple charts. I will leave the trend line as shown here. I will show how to draw and fit this trend line carefully in tomorrow’s end of week video.

The trend line still has not been breached by a close of 3% or more of market value since its inception in November 2011. But it is no longer exactly where price is finding resistance.

This analysis update is published about 11:18 p.m. EST.