A small correction was expected for the short term. This is exactly what happened.
Summary: The trend is upwards and the breakout from this consolidation phase should come within the next one to three days. A third or C wave up may begin tomorrow. Alternatively, a second or B wave may continue sideways tomorrow.
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Main Bull Wave Count
I will favor neither the bull or bear wave count. Both are viable and both expect this current upwards impulse may again be close to complete.
To see a weekly chart with subdivisions and how to draw trend lines and channels click here.
Upwards movement from the low at 666.79 subdivides as an incomplete 5-3-5. For the bull wave count this is seen as primary waves 1-2-3.
The aqua blue trend lines are traditional technical analysis trend lines. These lines are long held (the lower one has its first anchor in November, 2011), repeatedly tested, and shallow enough to be highly technically significant. When the lower of these double trend lines is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value that should indicate a trend change. It does not indicate what degree the trend change should be though. It looks like the last three corrections may have ended about the lower aqua blue trend line, which gives the wave count a typical look.
I have pulled the upper trend line down a little to touch the low of minute wave a within minor wave 4. This may be a better position for recent movement.
There is still triple technical divergence between MACD and price at the weekly chart level.
At 2,191 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This would expect that within minor wave 5 minute wave iii will be shorter than minute wave i, and minute wave v will be shorter still, which would be a repeat of the pattern seen within minor wave 1. Or the target is wrong.
At 2,140 minute wave iii would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave i.
Looking at momentum within intermediate wave (5) it is concerning that minor wave 3 exhibits weakest momentum at the daily chart level, although at the weekly chart level it does have strongest momentum. It is for this reason I am seriously considering the alternate bullish wave count.
Sideways movement for Wednesday’s session may be a complete expanded flat correction for minuette wave (ii), or the degree of labelling within this expanded flat could be moved down one degree and it may only be subminuette wave a of a larger flat, or subminuette wave w of a double flat or double combination.
If minuette wave (ii) does continue further it is most likely to be sideways and not substantially lower because flats, double flats and combinations are all sideways corrections. Only an expanded flat could substantially deepen this correction.
If minuette wave (ii) is over then at 2,079 minuette wave (iii) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
If minuette wave (ii) continues further sideways then it may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,980.90.
Alternate Bull Wave Count
Looking at momentum for the whole of intermediate wave (5) I want to label minor wave 3 over at the high at 2,094 because this has the strongest upwards momentum. The only way this fits is if intermediate wave (5) is seen as an ending diagonal, because within an ending diagonal all the sub waves must be zigzags and the fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory.
Structure on the hourly chart indicates that minor wave 4 is most likely over and minor wave 5 has most likely begun. Minor wave 5 should be a clear three on the daily chart. The best way to see where this final fifth wave should end is probably the 1-3 blue trend line. Contracting diagonals most often see the fifth wave end with a slight overshoot of this trend line.
When I am confident that minute wave b within minor wave 5 is over I will use the ratio between minute waves a and c to calculate a target for you. I cannot do that today.
I am changing the labelling of this hourly wave count to be in line with how I am seeing subdivisions on the main wave count. A new high during Wednesday’s session does not fit as an end to a five wave impulse upwards and so indicates that this is a correction following that impulse.
For this alternate wave count it is more likely that minute wave b is not over and will continue sideways so that it shows more clearly on the daily chart. I have moved the degree of labelling within the recent expanded flat down one degree. This may only be minuette wave (a) within a larger flat, minuette wave (a) within a triangle or minuette wave (w) of a double flat or combination. These are all sideways corrections, with the sole exception of expanded flats. Minute wave b is most likely to continue sideways. If it does move lower the most likely depth would be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave a at 2,024.
Minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a below 1,980.90.
Bear Wave Count
This bear wave count differs from the bull wave count at the monthly chart level and at super cycle wave degree. To see the historic picture go here.
The subdivisions within primary waves A-B-C are seen in absolutely exactly the same way as primary waves 1-2-3 for the bull wave count. The alternate bull wave count idea also works perfectly for this bear wave count.
At cycle degree wave b is over the maximum common length of 138% the length of cycle wave a, at 165% the length of cycle wave a. At 2,393 cycle wave b would be twice the length of cycle wave a and at that point this bear wave count should be discarded.
While we have no confirmation of this wave count we should assume the trend remains the same, upwards. This wave count requires confirmation before I have confidence in it.
This analysis is published about 07:51 p.m. EST.