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Lara had expected upwards movement to end about 2,132. Price drifted upwards and target is yet to be met.

Summary: Upwards movement should continue to the mid term target at 2,132. The mid term target may be met in another 5 or 13 trading days.

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Bull Wave Count


I will favor neither the bull or bear wave count. Both are viable and both expect this current upwards impulse may again be close to complete.

To see a weekly chart with subdivisions and how to draw trend lines and channels click here.

Upwards movement from the low at 666.79 subdivides as an incomplete 5-3-5. For the bull wave count this is seen as primary waves 1-2-3.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 2 is an expanded flat and minor wave 4 is a zigzag. Minor wave 3 is 14.29 points longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At intermediate degree there is also a very close relationship between intermediate waves (3) and (1): intermediate wave (3) is just 0.76 points less than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

The aqua blue trend lines are traditional technical analysis trend lines. These lines are long held, repeatedly tested, and shallow enough to be highly technically significant. When the lower of these double trend lines is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value that should indicate a trend change. It does not indicate what degree the trend change should be though. It looks like minute wave ii may have ended just short of the lower aqua blue trend line, which gives the wave count a typical look.

There is still triple technical divergence between MACD and price at the weekly chart level.

At 2,132 minute wave iii would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave i. Minute wave i lasted seven weeks, 36 days, which is two days longer than a Fibonacci 34. Minute wave iii may be either 13 or 21 days in total if it is to be 0.382 or 0.618 the duration of minute wave i. This would see it continue for a further 5 or 13 trading days.

At 2,191 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This would expect that minor wave 5 is either an ending contracting diagonal (minute wave i would be seen as a zigzag, which is possible) or within minor wave 5 minute wave iii will be shorter than minute wave i, and minute wave v will be shorter still. Both these scenarios are possible. Or the target is wrong.


It looks like minuette wave (iv) was quick and shallow.

Minuette wave (iii) is 9.13 short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This is just less than a 10% variation of the length of minuette wave (iii) and so I consider it an acceptable Fibonacci ratio. We may not see a Fibonacci ratio for minuette wave (v) to either of minuette waves (iii) or (i). I will leave the target for minute wave iii calculated at only minute degree.

Along the way up towards the end of minute wave iii I am expecting now to see a slowing of momentum. Downwards corrections along the way up may find support about the orange curved trend line. Subminuette wave iii is expected to be underway within minuette wave (iii).

Within minuette wave (v) subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 2,081.86.


Bear Wave Count


This bear wave count differs from the bull wave count at the monthly chart level and at super cycle wave degree. To see the historic picture go here.

The subdivisions within primary waves A-B-C are seen in absolutely exactly the same way as primary waves 1-2-3 for the bull wave count.

At cycle degree wave b is over the maximum common length of 138% the length of cycle wave a, at 164% the length of cycle wave a. At 2,393 cycle wave b would be twice the length of cycle wave a and at that point this bear wave count should be discarded.

At this point in time it is again possible that the market has recently turned and is beginning a big crash. A new low below 1,370.58 would provide price confirmation of a market crash, but we should have confidence in this wave count well before that point by looking carefully at structure.

While we have no confirmation of this wave count we should assume the trend remains the same, upwards. This wave count requires confirmation before I have confidence in it.

This analysis is published about 06:17 p.m. EST.