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The Elliott wave count is adjusted at the hourly and five minute chart level. The target remains the same.

Summary: The structure is still incomplete. I expect price to keep rising. The next likely target is at 2,079.

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Bull Wave Count

S&P 500 daily 2014

I will favour neither the bull or bear wave count. Both are viable and both expect this current upwards impulse may again be close to completion.

To see a weekly chart with subdivisions and how to draw trend lines and channels click here.

Upwards movement from the low at 666.79 subdivides as an almost complete 5-3-5. For the bull wave count this is seen as primary waves 1-2-3.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 2 is an expanded flat and minor wave 4 is a zigzag. Minor wave 3 is 14.29 points longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At intermediate degree there is also a very close relationship between intermediate waves (3) and (1): intermediate wave (3) is just 0.76 points less than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

The aqua blue trend lines are traditional technical analysis trend lines. These lines are long held, repeatedly tested, and shallow enough to be highly technically significant. When the lower of these double trend lines is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value that should indicate a trend change. It does not indicate what degree the trend change should be though.

There is actually triple technical divergence between MACD and price at the weekly chart level.

There is now no longer technical divergence between price and MACD at the daily chart level.

I would expect the final top to form a slow curving structure, like a double head and shoulders or a rounding top. At the high volume should be low. If the data from Google/Yahoo data feed is correct then for the last several days volume has been quite low. This may be indicative of a high forming. Once the high is in place the new downwards trend may begin with slow movement, and deep second wave corrections. These would form two right hand shoulders, or the right hand side of a rounding top. When the neckline is formed, and eventually broken I would not expect to see an increase in volume, but I would expect to see an increase in momentum.

Movement below 1,820.66 could not be a second wave correction within minor wave 5, and so at that stage the final fifth wave would have to be over. A trend change at primary (bull count) or cycle degree (bear count) would be confirmed.

S&P 500 hourly 2014

Within minor wave 5 minute wave iii is just 0.38 points longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i and includes the strongest upwards momentum so far. Minute wave ii is a deep zigzag and minute wave iv is a shallow running contracting triangle. I am confident that this part of the wave count is correct.

This means that minute wave v begins at 1,957.79 as labelled (now just slightly to the left of this chart).

Within minute wave v so far there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii).

Minuette wave (v) has now passed equality with minuette wave (i), equality with minuette wave (iii) and now 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). The next likely relationship for it may be at 2,079 where it reaches 1.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

I have adjusted the wave count within minuette wave (v). This now has a better fit. Subminuette wave i now ends higher up.

Ratios within subminuette wave i are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.28 longer than 0.382 the length of micro wave 1.

Within subminuette wave i there is good alternation: micro wave 2 is an expanded flat and micro wave 4 is a barrier triangle.

Subminuette wave iii is unlikely to be complete as it would be shorter in length with subminuette wave i. This wave count now expects to see an increase in upwards momentum over the next few days as the middle of a low degree third wave unfolds.

Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1 below 2,030.44.

S&P 500 5 minute 2014

Bear Wave Count

S&P 500 daily bear 2014

This bear wave count differs from the bull wave count at the monthly chart level and at super cycle wave degree. To see the historic picture go here.

The subdivisions within primary waves A-B-C are seen in absolutely exactly the same way as primary waves 1-2-3 for the bull wave count.

For both wave counts now that minor wave 5 may be a complete structure on the hourly and five minute charts, I have an alternate wave count which moves the degree of labelling within it all down one degree. A completion of a five wave impulse up within minor wave 5 may be either minor wave 5 in its entirety, or it may only be minute wave i within minor wave 5.

At cycle degree wave b is over the maximum common length of 138% the length of cycle wave a, at 161% the length of cycle wave a. At 2,393 cycle wave b would be twice the length of cycle wave a and at that point this bear wave count should be discarded.

This analysis is published about 08:41 p.m. EST.