Last analysis expected more upwards movement for Friday’s session with a small increase in upwards momentum towards a short term target. Price has moved higher, momentum did increase slightly, but the target was not quite met. The structure is incomplete and the targets remain the same.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
This wave count has a higher probability than the alternate. Upwards movement over the last 4 1/2 years subdivides best as a zigzag. If something is “off” about the supposed recovery then it must be a B wave because there is plenty that is off in this scenario in terms of social mood.
Downwards corrections may now find support along the upper edge of the big maroon channel from the monthly chart, if the upper trend line is pushed out to encompass all of primary wave A.
Intermediate wave (5) is incomplete, with minor waves 1 and 2 completed.
At 1,826 minor wave 3 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 is extended, so minor waves 3 and 5 may not be.
At 1,821 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave iii.
At 1,864 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This is the most common ratio between first and fifth waves so this target has a good probability.
Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,746.20.
The hourly chart shows all of minor wave 3 so far. Within minor wave 3 only the last wave upwards, minute wave v, needs to complete.
Within minute wave v minuette waves (i) and (ii) are complete. Minuette wave (iii) may still be incomplete; although on the five minute chart it can be seen as a completed five wave structure it would be shorter than the length of minuette wave (i), which would be unusual. At 1,817 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This target may be reached during Monday or maybe early Tuesday.
When minuette wave (iii) is completed then the following correction for minuette wave (iv) should unfold downwards and only take a couple of hours or so. Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,793.71.
The target at 1,821 to 1,826 is probably still about two or three days away.
Alternate Wave Count.
It is possible that a new cycle degree bull market began at 666.79. So far it is not yet halfway through, and I would expect it to last for a few years (at least five more years and maybe longer).
At some stage then the current upwards impulse, labeled intermediate wave (5) for the main wave count and minor wave 5 for this alternate, will be completed. At that stage both wave counts would expect a trend change. The main wave count would expect a huge cycle degree trend change, and this alternate would expect an intermediate degree trend change. If the downwards movement subdivides as a three and remains within the maroon channel then this alternate would be preferred. If it breaches the channel this alternate would be discarded.
The maroon – – – channel is an acceleration channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2 on the monthly chart (it is drawn in exactly the same way on the main wave count, but there it is termed a corrective channel). I would not expect intermediate wave (2) to breach this channel because a lower degree (intermediate) wave should not breach an acceleration channel of a higher degree (primary) first and second wave.
The daily chart shows the structure of minor wave 5. It is incomplete. Targets are the same because they are calculated using the same wave lengths as the main wave count. This bullish alternate does not diverge from the main wave count at this stage, and it will not for some weeks to come.
Is there anything besides EW Analysis you are seeing technically that would give an edge to the cycle wave B over an ongoing bull market for several more years? For example 3 months prior to the 2007 top, we saw a major divergence between price and $NYHL. Using this analysis, I’m not seeing it. However in 2007 at the Primary top in Jun, $NYHL confirmed the high. Then, a violet correction happened which was followed by a retest of the high. That is when the $NYHL failed miserably.
I’m wondering if we could see something similar again or if you’re witnessing any other technical signs.
No I don’t.
I’m using EW analysis only, with MACD to support the wave count and trend channeling for support / resistance.