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Wednesday’s session saw price move lower and complete as a red candlestick, which is what was expected.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2013

Intermediate wave (4) lasted 14 days, just one more than a Fibonacci 13.

If intermediate wave (5) exhibits a Fibonacci time relationship it may end in a Fibonacci 13 days (or sessions) on 28th October. Please note: this is a rough guideline only. Within this wave count there are few Fibonacci time relationships at primary or intermediate degree. Sometimes this happens, but not often enough to be reliable.

October is a common month for big trend changes with the S&P 500. This wave count could very well complete the structure for intermediate wave (5) this month, and maybe even this week.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (3) was just 0.76 points longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 was 16.23 points longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 was just 2.14 points short of 0.236 the length of minor wave 3.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii was just 7.66 points longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves iii or i.

At 1,764 primary wave C would reach equality with primary wave A. If price continues through this first target then the next target would be at 1,781 where intermediate wave (5) would reach 0.236 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

Minor wave 4 is now very likely to be complete. If minor wave 5 lasts three days then intermediate wave (5) would complete in a Fibonacci 13 days (or sessions).

Within minor wave 4 showing up on the daily chart this impulsive structure for intermediate wave (5) has a very typical look.

Importantly, within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 3 is very slightly shorter than minor wave 1. This limits minor wave 5 to no longer than equality with minor wave 3. If minor wave 5 begins at 1,740.50 this limit is at 1,803.90.

At 1,765 minor wave 5 would reach 0.382 the length of minor waves 1 and 3. Minor wave 5 should show a decrease in momentum from that seen for minor wave 3.

I have redrawn the parallel channel about intermediate wave (5) impulse because the fourth wave overshot the previously drawn channel. Draw this channel first with a trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3. I would expect minor wave 5 to most likely end mid way within this channel, or slightly less likely to find resistance at the upper edge.

If minor wave 4 were to continue further as a double (unlikely but possible) then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,711.03.