Yesterday’s analysis expected some downwards movement to be over during Thursday’s session for a small second wave correction, and for overall upwards movement for Thursday. This is exactly what happened.
The wave count remains the same.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Intermediate wave (4) is now over and lasted 14 days, just one more than a Fibonacci 13.
If intermediate wave (5) exhibits a Fibonacci time relationship it may end in a Fibonacci 13 days (or sessions) on 28th October. Please note: this is a rough guideline only. Within this wave count there are no Fibonacci time relationships at primary or intermediate degree. Sometimes this happens, but not often enough to be reliable.
October is a common month for big trend changes with the S&P 500. This wave count could very well complete the structure for intermediate wave (5) this month.
At 1,764 primary wave C would reach equality with primary wave A.
Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.
The session began with a small brief downwards movement, and this is likely minute wave ii within minor wave 3. Thereafter, upwards movement to new highs may be the start of the middle of this third wave. MACD is showing some small increase in upwards momentum so far, and this should become a bit stronger before the middle of this third wave is over.
At 1,756 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. Thereafter, minute wave iv should be a deep correction because minute wave ii was very shallow at only 29% of minute wave i.
I have drawn a best fit parallel channel about this third wave. When minute wave iii is completed I will redraw it using Elliott’s technique. For now this channel should show where price may find support and resistance along the way up.
Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,714.12.
Blue wave i was extended. If I recall properly, this does not negate the possibility of extending blue wave iii which is now in progress.
What is the probability of this third wave extending?
Thanks for all you work.
It’s a reasonable probability.
If minor (blue) 3 is extended it may reach equality, and that’s the target I’ve calculated.
The only reason I’m calculating equality and not 1.618 X 1 is because minor wave 2 was extremely shallow.