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The situation is a little clearer today for the S&P 500, and with the Dow continuing (so far!) to have a very clear wave count I have some more confidence today in the main wave count here.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count agrees with MACD and has some nice Fibonacci ratios in price and Fibonacci relationships in time.

Minor wave 3 is 15.1 points longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is 5.44 points longer than equality with minute wave iii.

At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A). At 1,739 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. At 1,736 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Within minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,560.33.

Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days, minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 8 days, minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration at 98 days, and minor wave 4 lasted 22 days, just one day longer than a Fibonacci 21.

At this stage it looks like minor wave 5 may not exhibit a Fibonacci time relationship. However, the next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 55 which could see minor wave 5 ending on 10th September (give or take a day or so either side). This may be the next possibility. At that time I will see if the structure could be considered complete, or not.

Keep drawing the wider parallel channels from the monthly chart and copy them over to the daily chart.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

At this stage there is a 5-3-5 wave structure downwards labeled here minuette wave (ii). When the parallel channel drawn around it is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have trend channel confirmation that this wave is over and the next wave is underway. Because minuette wave (ii) is nicely in proportion to minuette wave (i) it is most likely to be over here as a single zigzag.

Subminuette wave c is 1.53 points longer than 0.618 the length of subminuette wave a. There is nice alternation between subminuette wave a, an impulse, and subminuette wave c, an ending diagonal.

On the five minute chart the upwards movement from the end of minuette wave (ii) subdivides nicely into a small leading diagonal, and looks best as a five wave structure.

It is unlikely that minuette wave (ii) would continue further because then it would be out of proportion to minuette wave (i), but we must allow for this possibility. If it does continue it may be a flat, combination or double zigzag. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,676.03.

When we have a clear five wave structure upwards on the hourly chart and a channel breach of the channel containing minuette wave (ii) zigzag then we may have some more confidence that minuette wave (iii) has begun.

Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 hourly alternate 2013

While price remains below 1,709.67 it will remain possible that we have recently seen a trend change at cycle degree. However, we should always assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.

We should assume the upwards trend remains valid until this wave count is confirmed with movement below 1,560.33, and then with a breach of the black parallel channel on the daily chart.

If we have seen a trend change then we should see some increase in downwards momentum this week.

Movement below 1,676.03 would provide initial indication that this wave count may be correct.

At 1,660 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Within subminuette wave iii, micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,700.18.