Movement below 1,684.94 invalidated both hourly wave counts. The daily wave count remains valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

This wave count agrees with MACD and has some nice Fibonacci ratios in price and Fibonacci relationships in time.

Minor wave 3 is 15.1 points longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is 5.44 points longer than equality with minute wave iii.

At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A). At 1,739 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. At 1,736 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Within minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,560.33.

Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days, minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 8 days, minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration at 98 days, and minor wave 4 lasted 22 days, just one day longer than a Fibonacci 21.

At this stage minor wave 5 has lasted 31 sessions. A further three sessions would see it ending in a Fibonacci 34 (give or take one session either side of this would be an acceptable variation). At that time I will look to see if the structure could be considered complete. If it can we shall have an alternate wave count to consider the possibility again of a trend change at cycle degree.

Keep drawing the wider parallel channels from the monthly chart and copy them over to the daily chart.

Downwards movement cannot be a fourth wave correction because price moved back into first wave price territory. This can only be a second wave correction.

If this wave count is correct then it looks unlikely that the rest of minute wave v could be completed in just three or four more sessions. It is possible, but unlikely. Minor wave 5 may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.39 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.79 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Minuette wave (ii) may be complete as a double zigzag. Because so far it is already 82% of minuette wave (i) it would be likely that it is over here.

At 1,719 minuette wave (iii) would reach equality with minuette wave (i). At 1,739 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Any further downwards movement of minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,676.03.

*Alternate Wave Count.*

This alternate is exactly the same as the main wave count except the degree of labeling within minute wave v is moved down one degree. It is possible that we may have seen a trend change at cycle degree a few days ago, but at this stage we have absolutely no confirmation of this.

Initially we would need to see movement below 1,676.03 to invalidate the main hourly wave count. Further movement below 1,560.33 would be required to confirm this wave count and provide confidence in a trend change. While price remains above 1,560.33 I have no confidence we have had a trend change.

Learning a lot here thanks…