Select Page

Last analysis of AAPL expected price must move below 432.77, and was highly likely to move below 427.42 also. Price has moved below 432.77 but has just failed to move below 427.42 ending $1.33 short of this target.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.

Within intermediate wave (2) running flat minor wave C is just 2.17 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

At 381 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

There is now a completed leading diagonal to the downside. This five wave structure trending downwards is further confirmation that the downwards trend has resumed.

Within minute wave i leading diagonal minuette waves (ii), (iv) and (v) are zigzags, and minuette waves (i) and (iii) are impulses. The diagonal is expanding, but the third wave within it is still very slightly the longest. The minimum requirement for the fifth wave to make a new low below the third so that it was not truncated is met.

Following a leading diagonal in a first wave position the second wave is normally very deep. I would expect minute wave ii to reach above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.

Minute wave ii is most likely to unfold as a zigzag. When minuette waves (a) and (b) within it are complete I can use the ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c) to calculate a target for it to end. I cannot do that yet. I may be able to do this for you in next analysis early next week.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 457.10.

If minute wave ii unfolds as a flat correction then within it minuette wave (b) may make a price extreme beyond the start of minuette wave (a) at 428.75. For this reason there is no lower invalidation point for this correction.