Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement to a short term target at 1,607 before sideways movement for a fourth wave correction. Friday’s session began with sideways movement; the third wave was already over.
The wave count is mostly the same. I have still the one daily and one hourly chart for you.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
This structure is nearing completion, but it is not there yet. Cycle wave b is a double zigzag and the end of the second zigzag is nearly over. Intermediate wave (C) is unfolding as a simple impulse and remains mostly contained within its trend channel. Price may find resistance about here at the upper end of this channel. Draw it first with a trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3.
Cycle wave b is now over 105% the length of cycle wave a and so this structure at super cycle degree is an expanded flat correction, the most common type of flat.
At 1,631 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3. At 1,639 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave iii.
When price reaches this target zone we will use an alternate wave count to see if the structure could be complete and a trend change could occur.
Movement below the channel containing intermediate wave (C) would be initial confirmation of a trend change. While price remains within this channel we shall expect more upwards movement.
Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,538.57.
In another three sessions minor wave 5 would have lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. It could possibly end here, although Fibonacci time relationships are not as reliable as price. The most reliable way to find where this trend may end is the parallel channel and the target.
Downwards movement at the beginning of Friday’s session clearly breached the small parallel channel containing minuette wave (iii). At that stage we knew minuette wave (iii) should have been over and minuette wave (iv) must have begun.
Minuette wave (iii) is 1.07 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). We may not see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (iii) or (i), so the target may not change.
Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave iii is just 0.15 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.
Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave i is extended. Within subminuette wave i there are no Fibonacci ratios between micro waves 1, 3 and 5.
Draw a channel about minute wave v using Elliott’s technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the low of minuette wave (ii). Minuette wave (iv) in this instance may end midway within the channel. If it is time consuming enough and sideways movement brings it to the lower trend line then it should find support there. Minuette wave (v) may end midway within the channel, or should find resistance at the upper edge.
Minuette wave (ii) was a deep zigzag correction. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect minuette wave (iv) to most likely be a flat correction, but maybe also a double combination, double flat or less likely a triangle.
If minuette wave (iv) is a flat then within it subminuette wave b must reach at least 90% the length of subminuette wave a. This would be achieved at 1,595.61. Subminuette wave b may make a new high above the start of subminuette wave a, and is in fact reasonably likely to do so. There can be no upwards invalidation point for this reason.
When subminuette wave b is a completed three wave structure then subminuette wave c downwards is extremely likely to move below the end of subminuette wave a at 1,579.97 to avoid a truncation and a rare running flat.
Minuette wave (ii) lasted three days. I would expect minuette wave (iv) to last at least three days, and if it is a longer lasting combination or triangle it may last about five days.
Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated at minuette wave degree with movement below 1,573.66.