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Last analysis expected more upwards movement. The target at 1,469 has been exceeded by 5.51 points.

Again, a careful analysis of structure is required to indicate whether or not this upwards trend is over.

Today, I have one daily and one hourly charts for you.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2012

Upwards movement is unlikely to be over at this stage. The structure within the final upwards wave is incomplete.

At 1,513 wave v pink would reach 1.618 the length of wave iii pink. Also at 1,513 wave C blue would reach 1.618 the length of wave A blue.

At primary degree the structure unfolding is an expanded flat correction. Within this structure the maximum common length of primary wave B would be about 1,464 which is 138% the length of primary wave A. Price is right at this point today.

Within wave (Z) black wave A blue was a leading contracting diagonal. Wave B blue was a brief zigzag. Wave C blue is exhibiting alternation with wave A blue and unfolding as an impulse.

Within wave C blue wave i pink lasted 4 sessions and wave iii pink lasted 13 sessions. I would expect wave v pink to last between 4 and 13 sessions. If wave v pink is to have a Fibonacci duration it may end after 1 more session, lasting a Fibonacci 8 sessions. The next Fibonacci number in the sequence would be 13, this would be met in another 6 sessions.

When the parallel channel about wave (Z) black is clearly breached by downwards movement then we shall have confirmation of a trend change.

Keep drawing the parallel channel about wave C blue. Draw the first trend line from the highs of i to iii pink, place a parallel copy upon the low of wave ii pink. Wave v pink may find resistance here at the upper edge of the channel, and it looks like we are seeing a small overshoot.

S&P 500 hourly 2012

Within wave (v) green wave v orange is yet to unfold.

Ratios within wave iii orange are: wave 3 purple is 1.41 points longer than 4.236 the length of wave 1 purple, and wave 5 purple is 1.07 points longer than 2.618 the length of wave 1 purple and 1.95 points short of 0.618 the length of wave 3 purple.

Wave (iii) green is 3.04 points longer than 2.618 the length of wave (i) green. With a Fibonacci ratio already exhibited within wave v pink I am not expecting to see one between wave (v) green and either of waves (i) or (iii) green.

Within wave (v) green there is no Fibonacci ratio between waves iii and i orange. If wave iv orange has ended and price does not move it lower then at 1,503 wave v orange would reach equality in length with wave iii orange.

When markets open on Monday then any further downwards extension of wave iv orange may not move into wave i orange price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,437.76.

The green parallel channel drawn here is a best fit. We may see wave v orange end about the upper edge of it. When this channel is clearly breached with downwards movement we shall have an early indication of a trend change.