Select Page

As expected from last analysis the S&P 500 ended the week with a little upwards movement. Momentum so far looks to be slower, which also was expected.

I still have just the one daily and one hourly wave counts for you. The target is unchanged.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2012

This upwards movement (from the low labeled primary wave A) has a lot of overlapping three wave structures within it. Because the upwards wave labeled intermediate (black) (W) can only be seen as a three wave structure, the only structure that fits for this entire movement within this wave count is a triple zigzag.

The only other Elliott wave structure which has these subdivisions is a leading (or ending) diagonal. This would fit within the second alternate monthly wave count which may be found here. It could also possibly fit as an ending diagonal for the first monthly alternate, the expanding triangle scenario.

Within wave (Z) black wave A blue was a leading contracting diagonal. Wave B blue was a brief zigzag. Wave C blue is exhibiting alternation with wave A blue and unfolding as an impulse.

When the parallel channel about wave (Z) black is clearly breached by downwards movement then we shall have confirmation of a trend change.

Within wave C blue wave iv pink may not move into wave i pink price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,391.74.

If price moves below 1,391.74 then the structure within wave C blue must be complete and it would be highly likely that wave Z black would be complete. A triple is the maximum number of corrective structures within a multiple. When the third structure is over the entire correction must be over and there is no way it can continue further.

S&P 500 hourly 2012

It continues to be most likely that wave iv pink is over and wave v pink has just begun.

Wave (i) green subdivides nicely into a leading expanding diagonal on the 5 and 1 minute charts. Wave (ii) green is unlikely to be complete because wave a orange does not subdivide easily into a three and it looks more like a five.

When markets open Tuesday (Monday is a public holiday) I would expect a little more downwards movement for wave c orange to complete wave (ii) green.

Second waves following leading diagonals tend to be very deep. In this instance I think the best guide to where this downwards movement may end would be the lower edge of the large pink parallel channel drawn here on the hourly chart.

At 1,442 wave v pink would reach 0.618 the length of wave iii pink. At 1,443 wave C blue would reach equality in length with wave A blue. This one point target zone has a good probability.

Wave (ii) green may not move beyond the start of wave (i) green. This wave count (at the hourly chart level) is invalidated with movement below 1,397.01.

If this wave count is invalidated with downwards movement then I would consider that wave iv pink is not over. I would move the labeling within it all down one degree and would reconsider my labeling of the upwards movement of wave (i) green as possibly a three wave structure and not a five. Also, there remains the outlying possibility that wave iv pink could continue further sideways as a very rare triple combination correction.