As expected from our main wave count the S&P 500 has continued to move higher. A new high above 1,419.15 has invalidated the alternate and confirmed the main wave count. We have two daily charts today, both expect the same direction next, and they look at this long sustained rise in slightly different ways.
We may expect this trend to continue towards targets calculated.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
I am switching the daily chart to this wave count which sees wave (v) green as just begun. Importantly wave (iii) green is shorter than wave (i) green. Because third waves may never be the shortest wave this gives us a limit to upwards movement for wave (v) green as no longer than equality with wave (iii) green at 1,460.9.
I am switching over to this wave count because it agrees with MACD. The strongest reading on the 8 hour chart within wave c pink is within the wave now labeled (iii) green. This has a much better look than our pervious main wave count, which is now an alternate.
This wave count sees the S&P 500 as within a final fifth wave upwards to complete a large correction at intermediate (black) degree. If wave Y blue is to have a Fibonacci time relationship then it may take another 2 sessions to complete, lasting a Fibonacci 89 days. Please note though that Fibonacci time relationships are not as reliable as price ratios, and this expectation of another 2 sessions is a rough guide only. At this stage the structure within wave (v) green is strongly suggesting that another 2 sessions may not be long enough for completion.
Wave (B) black is correcting the three wave structure of wave (A) black within a flat correction at primary degree. The maximum common length for wave (B) black in relation to wave (A) black is 138%. This would be achieved at 1,464 and it is likely we shall see a trend change before this price point is reached.
Wave (v) green would reach 0.618 the length of wave (iii) green at 1,433.
Within wave (v) green no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,386.93.
We should keep drawing the parallel channel on the daily chart about the zigzag of wave Y blue. Draw the first trend line from the start of Y blue to the low labeled b pink, then place a parallel copy on the high of a pink. Only when this channel is breached by a full daily candlestick below it shall we have confirmation of a big trend change, and until that time we should expect upwards movement to continue.
The green parallel channel is drawn here about wave c pink. Draw the first trend line from the highs of (i) to (iii) green, then place a parallel copy upon the low of (ii) green. Wave (v) green may be expected to end either midway within the channel (more likely) or at the upper end of this channel (a bit less likely).
Within wave (v) green the middle of its third wave has probably just ended during Monday’s session.
At 1,427 wave (5) aqua would reach equality in length with wave (1) aqua. At 1,431 wave 3 purple would reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 purple. This 4 point target zone may be reached within the next one to two sessions.
Thereafter, another fourth wave correction for 4 purple should follow, and then wave 5 purple upwards should complete wave iii orange.
Thereafter, another fourth wave correction for iv orange should follow, and a final fifth wave upwards for v orange should complete the entire structure at all wave degrees.
This will probably take at least another week or so to complete. It seems highly unlikely that another two sessions is enough time.
At this stage, if I have the anlaysis within wave iii orange correct, any further downwards movement tomorrow for wave (4) aqua may not move into wave (1) aqua price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,410.80.
When wave (5) aqua completes wave 3 purple we must move the invalidation point down slightly to the high of wave 1 purple at 1,409.61.
Alternate Wave Count.
This was our main wave count until today.
It also sees the S&P 500 within a final fifth wave up to complete a larger correction for (B) black. However, the labeling of green subdivisions within wave c pink does not agree with MACD and this wave count has a lower probability than the main wave count.
Within wave c pink wave (iii) green is longer than wave (i) green and there is no limit to upwards movement.
At 1,432 wave (v) green would reach 0.618 the length of wave (iii) green. At 1,434 wave v orange within wave (v) green would reach equality with wave iii orange. This is our first target for upwards movement to end.
If price continues through the first target, and the structure requires further upwards movement to complete it, the second target is at 1,445 where wave (v) green would reach 2.618 the length of wave (i) green. At 1,443 wave v orange within wave (v) green would reach 1.618 the length of wave i orange. This gives us a second two point target zone.
Within wave (v) green no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,340.03.