Elliott Wave chart analysis for the S&P 500 for 19th April, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
The S&P 500 moved upwards in a continuation of wave 4 orange. This should be followed by one final wave down to end this second wave correction.
At 1,367.38 wave 5 blue will reach equality with wave 1 blue. This target may be too low. When price approaches this first target, if the structure requires further upwards movement, we will use the second target.
At 1,553.42 wave 5 blue will reach equality with wave 3 blue. At 1,564.02 wave C black will reach equality with wave A black. This is the second more likely target for primary wave 2 to end.
At this stage we can see a complete five wave structure within wave 5 blue. However, wave behaviour does not support a wave count which sees primary wave 3 underway. When primary wave 3 arrives we should see very strong downwards movement.
When the wide blue channel drawn here about wave C black impulse is breached to the downside with at least a full daily candlestick below it then we shall have confirmation of a trend change at primary degree.
Wave 2 pink may not move beyond the start of wave 1 pink. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,249.05.
Wave C green is still an incomplete impulse. It requires a final fifth wave downwards to end it.
Wave 3 orange is just 0.66 points longer than 11.09 times the length of wave 1 orange. This is an unusual fibonacci ratio but it is mathematically correct.
At 1.292.61 wave C green will reach equality with wave A green. At 1,295.91 wave 5 orange will reach 0.618 the length of wave 3 orange. This is our target for the next small downwards wave to end.
Wave 4 orange may not move into wave 1 orange price territory. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement above 1,320.47.
At this stage movement above 1,320.47 would indicate that wave C green and therefore wave 2 pink was over and wave 3 pink upwards would be underway.
When we have a known end for wave 2 pink then we may calculate a target upwards for wave 3 pink.