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Elliott Wave chart analysis for the S&P 500 for 11th April, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2011

We were expecting upwards movement from the S&P to begin the new week and the wave count has been invalidated by downwards movement.

I have two hourly wave counts for you today. It is possible that we have an end to a five wave structure for a first wave at pink degree within wave 5 blue. The alternate wave count below will cover this possibility.

The main wave count follows on from our prior hourly wave count.

At 1,367.38 wave 5 blue will reach equality with wave 1 blue. This may be where our next upwards fifth wave at green degree ends.

A more likely target for wave 5 blue is 1,553.42 to 1,564.02 where wave 5 blue will be close to equality with wave 3 blue and wave C black will be close to equality with wave A black.

This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,576.09.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

S&P 500 hourly 2011

Downwards movement below 1,322.94 was unexpected and has invalidated the labeling of the triangle as it was yesterday.

This downwards movement may have been an extension further of wave E orange.

Wave 5 green will reach equality with wave 1 green at 1,360.89. Thereafter, we will be faced with the possibility that primary wave 2 may be over.

This wave count expects no further downwards movement tomorrow. Wave C orange cannot extend any lower. Movement below 1,321.06 would invalidate this main hourly wave count and confirm the alternate below.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

S&P 500 hourly 2011

It is possible that we have a complete impulse upwards for wave 1 pink. Because this upwards movement has not made a new high above 1,344.07, it is unlikely that this is the end of blue wave 5 and primary wave 2.

Wave 2 pink downwards would be unfolding and is most likely within the early stage of wave C green downwards. At 1,305.90 wave C green will reach 2.618 the length of wave A green. This is also very close to the 0.382 fibonacci ratio of wave 1 pink at 1,304.87.

Within wave C green wave 2 purple may not move beyond the start of wave 1 purple. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,333.77.

Wave 2 pink may not move beyond the start of wave 1 pink. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,249.05. Movement below this point at this stage would be a strong indication that wave 5 blue was over and that primary wave 3 may be underway.