Elliott Wave chart analysis for the SPX500 for 30th March, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
As expected the S&P moved higher in Wednesday’s session. We should see more upwards movement tomorrow towards the short term target on the hourly chart, before a short term trend change for a small fourth wave correction.
Overall we should see continuing upwards movement from the S&P for some time.
At 1,553.42 wave 5 blue will reach equality with wave 3 blue. At 1,564.02 wave C black will reach equality with wave A black.
This wave count expects no new all time highs for the S&P above 1,576.09.
Movement above 1,332.28 will invalidate our alternate wave count and confirm this main wave count.
Wave 5 orange has moved price higher as expected. It is not yet a complete impulsive structure.
Within wave 5 orange so far wave 3 purple is just 0.08 longer than 1.618 the length of wave 1 purple.
At 1,338.15 wave 5 purple (if it began at 1,327.50 and if wave 4 purple does not move lower) will reach equality with wave 1 purple.
At 1,339.49 wave 3 green will reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 green.
At 1,340.39 wave 5 orange will reach equality with wave 1 orange.
We have a 2.24 point wide target zone with a high probability.
When the final upwards movement to end wave 3 green is complete then we should expect wave 4 green to develop downwards.
Wave 4 green may not move into wave 1 green price territory. This wave count is at that stage invalidated with movement below 1,288.88.
We may expect wave 4 green to last about a week or so.
Alternate Wave Count.
This wave count remains technically valid for the S&P500. However, for the Dow and Russell 2000 the counts were invalidated by upwards movement.
This wave count now has a very low probability but it remains technically possible.
Movement above 1,332.28 may be considered invalidation of this wave count.
Any further upwards movement for wave 2 green may not move beyond the start of wave 1 green. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,332.28.