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Elliott Wave chart analysis for the SPX500 for 28th March, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

SPX500 daily 2011

Analysis to end last week saw this as our main wave count, which expects further upwards movement.

Movement above 1,332.28 would provide initial confirmation of this wave count. However, at this stage, both the Dow and Russell 2000 have invalidated their wave counts which saw primary wave 2 as over. Today it is looking increasingly likely that the S&P will do the same this week.

At 1,553.42 wave 5 blue will reach equality with wave 3 blue.

At 1,564.02 wave C black will reach equality with wave A black.

This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,576.09.

SPX500 hourly 2011

This wave count expected a little downwards movement for wave 4 orange and this is what Monday’s session achieved. The following upwards wave may unfold tomorrow.

Wave 4 orange is an expanded flat correction: wave B purple is a 110% correction of wave A purple and wave C purple is just 0.17 points longer than 1.618 the length of wave A purple.

There is nice alternation between waves 2 and 4 orange: wave 2 is a deep zigzag correction and wave 4 is a shallow expanded flat.

At 1,334.59 wave 5 orange (if it begins at 1,310.19 and if wave 4 orange does not move any lower) will reach equality with wave 1 orange.

At 1,339.49 wave 3 green will reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 green.

This is a short term target which may be met within another 2 – 3 days.

Any further downwards extension of wave 4 orange may not move into wave 1 orange price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,300.58.

Alternate Wave Count.

SPX500 daily 2011

This alternate wave count is similar for the Dow and the Russell 2000, which have both invalidated their respective alternates by upwards movement. For the Dow and Russell 2000 primary wave 2 cannot be over and downwards movement from the last high to the last low on the daily chart is a clear three wave zigzag.

I will continue to chart and present this alternate until it is correctly invalidated by movement above 1,332.28. It looks increasingly unlikely today that this wave count could be correct.

This wave count would have to see imminent downwards movement if it was to have any validity.

SPX500 hourly 2011

Wave 2 green here is labeled as a complete double zigzag correction. We could not place the label for wave 2 pink and the start of wave 1 green any higher.

Wave 2 green may not move beyond the start of wave 1 green. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,332.28.