Select Page

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the SPX500 for 15th December, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

SPX500 daily 2010

The S&P has moved mostly sideways, and slightly lower, remaining above our point of differentiation for our main and alternate hourly wave counts, at 1,232.1. We still do not have confirmation of a trend change and until that happens we should continue to assume that the trend remains up.

We do have a full candlestick outside the lower edge of the small parallel channel containing wave C green to the upside which may be an indication that we have seen a trend change, but it should not be considered confirmation.

We are expecting strong downward movement when wave C pink begins. If price moves below 1,232.1 then the likelihood that it will move strongly lower is increased.

Wave 4 blue should not move into wave 1 blue price territory, below 1,129.9. If this invalidation point is breached we must then consider the possibility that primary wave 2 is over and primary wave 3 is underway. That seems highly unlikely at this stage.

Wave 4 blue is likely to end closer to the lower end of the wide blue parallel channel containing wave C black to the upside.

Main Wave Count.

SPX500 hourly 2010

Wave 1 purple down on a 15 minute chart has an impulsive count of 9. Wave 2 up has a corrective count of 7.

If this wave count is correct we should see movement below 1,234.6 as wave 3 purple must move beyond the end of wave 1 purple.

At 1,224 wave 3 purple will reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 purple. This is our short term target. If this wave count is confirmed and this target is reached (thereabouts) we may see a bounce for a fourth wave correction from this point.

Movement above 1,246.6 will invalidate this wave count and validate the alternate below.

Alternate Wave Count.

SPX500 hourly 2010

Downward movement may be also seen as a A-B-C as easily as a 1-2-3.

If this wave count is correct then we should not see movement below 1,232.1 as wave 2 purple may not move beyond the start of wave 1 purple.

If price moves above 1,246.9 this wave count may be confirmed. At that stage we should expect a continuance of a long drawn out slow rise towards the target 1,262, where wave C green will reach 2.618 the length of wave A green within wave B pink.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

SPX500 daily 2010

This wave count remains technically correct but it does not have a good look on the daily chart.

Movement below 1,206.6 would see an end to wave 1 pink and downward movement as wave 2 pink for this wave count, rather than a fourth wave correction within wave 1 pink, as labeled here.

Movement below 1.172.6 will immediately invalidate this wave count.