Elliott Wave chart analysis for the SPX500 for 30th November, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
The S&P continues to trade within a range; we still do not have an end to this fourth wave correction at minor (blue) degree.
Wave B pink within wave 4 blue may have been over as a triangle, or it may be continuing as a zigzag.
When wave B pink is over the S&P should resume the downward trend for wave C pink to end wave 4 blue. Wave 4 blue is likely to end about the lower edge of the wide blue parallel channel containing wave C black to the upside.
Targets for the end to wave C black and, therefore, the end to primary wave 2 remain the same. At 1,349.9 wave C black will reach 0.618 the length of wave A black. At 1,561.2 wave C black will reach equality with wave A black. This is the most common relationship between waves A and C of a zigzag. Therefore, the second higher target is more likely.
Wave 2 at primary degree may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1. Therefore, price may not move above 1,576.09.
Wave 4 blue may not move into wave 1 blue price territory. Therefore, this wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,129.9. If this occurs then the alternate daily wave count will explain movement.
Main Hourly Wave Count.
This wave count sees wave B pink as a completed triangle structure. Wave E green to end this triangle falls short of the A-C trend line, but it is a 61% correction of wave D green and satisfies a guideline for triangle structures.
If this wave count is correct we should see overall downward movement for the next few days. At 1,139.6 wave C pink within wave 4 blue will reach equality with wave A pink.
This wave count will be confirmed with movement below 1,173.1 as wave 3 green must move beyond the end of wave 1 green, and at this point the alternate hourly wave count is invalidated.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
This alternate wave count is on a 2 hourly chart.
Wave B pink may not yet be over. Recent movement may be seen as a large zigzag for wave B green of wave B pink.
At 1,207.1 wave C green will reach equality with wave A green to end wave B pink. Thereafter, the S&P should resume downward movement for wave C pink to end wave 4 blue.
This wave count is confirmed with movement above 1,190.6 as at that stage the main hourly wave count would be invalidated.
Movement below 1,173.1 would invalidate this wave count.
Alternate Daily Wave Count.
This alternate wave count expects wave B black is still unfolding as a regular flat correction.
Wave B blue was 103% the length of wave A blue. Therefore, this structure is a regular flat correction and wave C blue is most likely to end just beyond the end of wave A blue, just below 1,008.
If the main wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,129.9 this alternate wave count will be correct. At that stage we may expect there is a very high probability of downward movement continuing and ending only below 1,008.
Wave 2 green may not move beyond the end of wave 1 green. Therefore, this wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,227.4.