Tag Archives: commodities

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement from gold towards a short term target at 1,431. Price did move higher but has fallen well short of the target.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted eight weeks and it is incomplete. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse and minor wave B subdivides as a zigzag. Minor wave C is incomplete.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in another week or two.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, and it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Upwards movement completed a third wave, minute wave iii, within minor wave C. Minute wave iii is 2.62 short of equality with minute wave i. This limits minute wave v to come to no longer than equality with minute wave iii which was 68.58 in length.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.80 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Within minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.40 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.

The movement within minute wave iv may be a regular contracting triangle unfolding. It looks like minuette wave (b) within it is completed, and because this is less than 90% the length of minuette wave (a) it cannot be a flat. Because minuette wave (b) unfolds as a double zigzag a combination is unlikely, because the X wave within a combination may only subdivide into a simple three and may not itself be a combination.

If this analysis is correct for minute wave iv then we should expect more very choppy overlapping sideways movement for another day to three as the triangle completes. Following this we should see a sharp upwards thrust as minute wave v completes, which may not be longer than 68.58.

For the triangle to remain valid minuette wave (c) may not move below the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,352.35 and minuette wave (d) may not move above 1,379.29. Although, if the triangle is a barrier triangle then minuette wave (d) may move very slightly above 1,379.29, as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat. The upper invalidation point for the triangle is not as firm as the lower invalidation point.

Minute wave iv may also be unfolding as an expanding triangle, but the rarity of this structure means the probability is very low.

Minute wave iv may also be unfolding as a combination and the X wave within it may be incomplete. It may also be a more time consuming flat correction with the B wave within it incomplete. I will consider these other possibilities if they show themselves.

What’s clear is this correction is incomplete.

When minute wave iv is complete then I will recalculate the target for minor wave C to end. I cannot do that for you yet.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,344.26.

When minute wave iv is completed the lower invalidation point no longer applies.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis of US Oil expected some more upwards movement to end just above 108.76 but not above 108.92. Price moved higher and turned at 108.17, just 0.59 short of the target.

This week I expect an increase in downwards momentum for Oil.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (ii) completed as a rare running flat; subminuette wave c is slightly (0.59 cents) truncated. The subdivisions all fit perfectly, particularly the most important check, that of subminuette wave b as a three wave structure. It is very difficult to see this movement as a five.

Subminuette wave c ended almost right on the upper edge of the parallel channel containing this running flat of minuette wave (ii).

Within the running flat of minuette wave (ii) subminuette wave c is 0.15 short of equality with subminuette wave a.

Ratios within subminuette wave c are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.28 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

Micro wave 5 subdivides into an imperfect ending contracting diagonal, imperfect because the third wave within it is the longest. All the subwaves correctly subdivide into single zigzags.

If this wave count is correct we should see some increase in downwards momentum over the next week.

At 98.07 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). If price keeps falling through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure is incomplete, then the next target is at 91.83 where minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.17.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th August, 2013

Movement above 1,320.86 early in this last week confirmed the main hourly wave count which expected more upwards movement. This week I have just the one wave count for you.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about four to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. So far it is just over four weeks. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse.

At the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) this movement looks strongly like a five wave impulse on the daily chart. If this is correct then intermediate wave (4) cannot be over here and must continue. I have tried to see if this can subdivide as a double zigzag. It can, just, but the wave count looks forced and must include a rare running flat.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in a bout a week or so. If minor wave B continues lower then this target must move correspondingly lower.

Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave C only minute wave i is complete. Minute wave ii is most likely to be complete as a single zigzag structure and just 39% of minute wave i. Within minute wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (c) and (a). There is alternation between them: minuette wave (a) was a contracting diagonal and minuette wave (c) an expanding diagonal.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.84 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) of minute wave i are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.40 short of equality with subminuette wave iii.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (i) is close to completion. Within it subminuette wave iii is 2.75 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

At 1,431 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

The channel drawn here is an acceleration channel. I would expect to see an increase in upwards momentum over this next week and this channel may be breached by upwards movement.

When minuette wave (i) is complete then minuette wave (ii) should move price lower and may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,316.05.

If price moves below 1,316.05 then minuette wave (ii) is continuing. The invalidation point must then move down to the start of minute wave i at 1,273.06.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected downwards movement to a short term target at 98.66 or 92.42. Price did move lower to make a new low at 102.24 but then turned back upwards. Price remains below the invalidation point on the daily chart and the wave count remains valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

I have reanalysed the upwards movement labeled now subminuette wave a within minuette wave (ii) as a double zigzag. The previous analysis of a single zigzag here did not look right, with a very short A wave and a very long C wave with no Fibonacci ratio between them.

The downwards movement labeled here submineutte wave b fits best as a three wave zigzag. I cannot see a five wave structure in here. This is an indication that minuette wave (ii) may not be over and may be continuing as a flat correction. Within it subminuette wave c is an incomplete five wave impulse.

If subminuette wave c fails to end at or above 108.76 then the structure will be a running flat. It is likely that subminuette wave c will end a little above 108.76, or very close to it. There is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves 3 and 1, with micro wave 3 longer by 0.60.

There is another possibility that minuette wave (ii) was over as a double zigzag at the high labeled subminuette wave a at 108.76, and movement from this point is a first and second wave of a leading diagonal for the start of minuette wave (iii). The expected direction and invalidation point is the same (I will not chart this option this week).

When we see price move below 104.35 then downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within subminuette wave c and so subminuette wave c and minuette wave (ii) must be over. At that stage I would expect that a third wave downwards is unfolding.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement from gold for the week. The hourly wave count was invalidated and price has moved lower, remaining above the invalidation point on the daily chart. Downwards movement is most likely a continuation of minor wave B.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about four to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. So far it is just over four weeks. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse.

At the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) this movement looks strongly like a five wave impulse on the daily chart. If this is correct then intermediate wave (4) cannot be over here and must continue. I have tried to see if this can subdivide as a double zigzag. It can, just, but the wave count looks forced and must include a rare running flat.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in a bout a week or so. If minor wave B continues lower then this target must move correspondingly lower.

Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 0.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave B was not over last week. It continued further as a double zigzag. The subdivisions here within the first zigzag are the labeled the same as last week.

Within the second zigzag of the double labeled minute wave y minuette wave (c) is 3.43 short of equality with minuette wave (a).

I would have confidence in this wave count with price movement above 1,320.86. At that stage the alternate below would be invalidated.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,273.06.

If this wave count is invalidated then the alternate below should be used.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

It is possible that minor wave B is an incomplete single zigzag if minute wave c within it is unfolding as an ending diagonal which is incomplete. The subdivisions are the same on both hourly wave counts up to this point.

Within the ending diagonal of minute wave c within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,320.86.

This wave count would expect a few more days of downwards movement.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected downwards movement for the week, with a second wave correction to come. The first wave was already over and the second wave unfolded as a very deep zigzag, ending just below the invalidation point on the daily chart. The hourly chart was invalidated.

The wave count remains mostly the same this week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The low at 102.68 was the end of a five wave impulse.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.20 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 0.11 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.11 short of equality with micro wave 1.

A parallel channel drawn about minuette wave (i) using Elliott’s first technique perfectly shows where subminuette wave iv found resistance. This impulse is textbook perfect. I wish I had seen it last week!

Minuette wave (ii) is a very deep sharp zigzag. Because there is no further room left for upwards movement if this wave count is correct then minuette wave (iii) must begin here. We should see an increase in downwards momentum over the next week for US Oil.

Minuette wave (ii) subdivides as a deep sharp zigzag with subminuette wave b an expanding triangle. There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

Ratios within subminuette wave c of minuette wave (ii) zigzag are: micro wave 3 is 0.04 short of equality with micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than 0.382 the length of micro wave 1.

At 98.66 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Because minuette wave (ii) was so deep it is also fairly likely that minuette wave (iii) may reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i) at 92.42. If price keeps dropping through the first target then the second target is the next likely end.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st July, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement for the week from gold. Price moved sideways before a sharp spike lower. Price has now turned back upwards.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted almost three weeks and I would expect it is incomplete.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag, because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse. Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within intermediate wave (4) minor wave B was not over and continued further as a more time consuming zigzag with a triangle in the middle of minute wave b. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Redraw the parallel channel about intermediate wave (4) using Elliott’s technique on the daily chart and copy it over to the hourly chart. Expect any downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of this channel.

At 1,370 minor wave C would reach 0.382 the length of minor wave A. If at this point the structure within minor wave C is a complete five then it may end there. If the structure is incomplete about this point, or if price gets there and keeps rising, then the next calculated target is at 1,410 where minor wave C would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave A.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,305.95.

When minor wave C may be seen as a compete five wave structure then we may expect an end to intermediate wave (4) and a resumption of the downwards trend for gold. At that stage a clear breach of the blue channel containing the zigzag for minor wave (4) would provide trend channel confirmation that the upwards zigzag is over and the next wave is underway. The next wave is most likely to be intermediate wave (5).


GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th July, 2013

Last analysis expected choppy overlapping movement to 1,192.45 or below in the short to mid term. Overall the wave count expected further upwards movement for a fourth wave correction at intermediate degree.

Price did not move lower, it moved higher. The most likely structure, a flat correction, is not the structure unfolding for this fourth wave.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted almost three weeks and I would expect it is incomplete.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag, because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse. Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

At this stage we now have a clear five wave structure upwards within minor wave A indicating intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag.

Ratios within minor wave A are: minute wave iii is 5.41 longer than equality with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.38 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within minor wave B it is possible the structure is complete, but it is also possible that it will move lower. On the five minute chart the small upwards movement following the low labeled minor wave B does not subdivide nicely as a five wave structure, so this may be a correction within a larger downwards movement for minor wave B.

When price turns and moves above 1,338.62 then minor wave B is most likely to be over and minor wave C should be underway.

Use Elliott’s technique to draw a parallel channel about intermediate wave (4). Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. Expect minor wave C to end about the upper trend line.

If minor wave B moves lower then redraw the channel.

Overall I expect this structure to take a few more days to complete. It may find resistance a the upper edge of the channel drawn on the daily chart.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2013

Oil has moved higher as expected for the week, remaining just below the invalidation point. If price breaks above 110.56 in the next one to few weeks this wave count will change significantly. I will briefly cover the alternate for this scenario today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (2) is most likely now a complete zigzag. There is a nice evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A.

Ratios within minor wave C are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is just 0.06 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave i.

When the wide parallel channel containing intermediate wave (2) is breached then we shall have trend channel confirmation of this trend change.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The structure within intermediate wave (2) may again be considered complete. Price did not move lower as expected to complete minute wave iv last week, it moved sideways to complete a triangle. Within the triangle on the five minute chart minuette wave (e) itself subdivides nicely into a contracting triangle.

There is perfect alternation between minute waves ii and iv; minute wave ii was a deep sharp zigzag, minute wave iv is a time consuming sideways moving shallow triangle.

The channel drawn about the impulse of minor wave C is now very clearly breached indicating intermediate wave (2) is probably over and intermediate wave (3) has likely just begun.

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.01 short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is exactly 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). With these remarkably good Fibonacci ratios I am confident this labeling of minute wave iv triangle and minute wave v impulse is correct.

Within the new downwards movement we do not have a clear five down. This movement so far does not subdivide into a leading diagonal because the first wave down labeled subminuette wave i itself subdivides into a diagonal on the five minute chart.

Within subminuette wave iii if micro wave 2 were to move higher it may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement above 108.58.

Alternate Monthly Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly Alternate 2013

If price moves above 110.56 in the next week this is the wave count I would use.

It is possible that cycle wave b is not over and is completing a double zigzag, with primary wave X within it a contracting triangle.

The triangle of primary wave X does fit, in that all the waves within it can be seen as threes, but it does not have a very typical look for a contracting triangle. The overshoot of the B-D trend line within intermediate wave (E) looks strange. For this reason I would judge this wave count to have a low probability. I would only consider it seriously if it was confirmed with price movement above 110.56.

If this wave count is confirmed we should expect a continuation of upwards movement from oil for some months yet. There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles, and so a target for primary wave Y to end could only be calculated when intermediate waves (A) and (B) within it are complete.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.