AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st July, 2013

Last AAPL analysis expected more downwards movement towards a short term target at 392 to 390. Price has moved lower to reach down to 388.87 before turning upwards, just $1.13 below the small target zone.

I have still just the one daily and one hourly chart for you today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.

I have removed targets for minor wave 3 and intermediate wave (3). Because we have not seen a strong increase in downwards momentum yet I expect the middle of this third wave has not yet passed. I expect momentum to increase. Targets calculated may have been too high. As these waves get closer to completion I will use multiple wave degrees to calculate targets.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

At this stage it is unclear which degree correction is unfolding upwards. This wave count has the fourth wave labeled as minuette wave degree, but it may also be minute. The difference really is very small as for both possibilities the same direction is expected next, the targets are very similar, and the invalidation points are very close together. For these reasons I present only one hourly chart for you today to keep things simple. I am aware of alternates.

If minuette wave (iii) has just ended then it is 3.50 longer than 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is 3.45 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 1.84 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave i.

At this stage it is most likely a fourth wave correction is unfolding upwards and is most likely to be incomplete. Within the fourth wave correction subminuette wave a subdivides best as a five wave impulse which indicates a possible zigzag may be unfolding. This requires first subminuette wave b to move price lower and then subminuette wave c to move price to a new high above 412.27 to avoid a truncation.

If minuette wave iv is unfolding as a zigzag then subminuette wave b within it may not move beyond the start of submineutte wave a at 388.87.

Minuette wave (ii) was a relatively deep zigzag. Minuette wave (iv) may be shallow. It may be a zigzag also, and it may show alternation with minuette wave (ii) within the zigzag in the length or proportion of its a and c waves.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 432.77.